[Charles Bukowski]

Anybody know anything about Roy Morgan Research?

http://www.roymorgan...nemployment.cfm

Quote

In the month of January Australia’s total unemployment as measured by Roy Morgan was 875,000 (7.5%), up 102,000 (0.7%) since December, and up 108,000 since January 2009.

In January 2010 there were 7,492,000 (up 299,000 on December 2009 and up 297,000 on January 2009) Australians working full-time and 3,332,000 (down 136,000 on December 2009, but up a large 159,000 on January 2009) working part-time.

The latest Roy Morgan January 2010 unemployment estimate is 2% above the 5.5% currently quoted by the ABS for December 2009.

The Roy Morgan January 2010 ‘under-employed’* estimate is 845,000 (7.2%), down 87,000 (1.0%) on December 2009, but still up 62,000 on a year ago, January 2009.

In total in January 2010 an estimated 1,720,000 (14.7%) Australians were unemployed or ‘under-employed, up 14,000 (but down 0.2% due to the increasing size of the workforce) on December 2009.

In January 2010 there were 485,000 (up 31,000 on December 2009, and up 70,000 on January 2009) Australians looking for full-time work and 390,000 (up 71,000 on December 2009, and up 38,000 on January 2009) Australians looking for part-time work.


Gary Morgan says:

“The latest January Roy Morgan employment estimates shows unemployment (875,000, up 102,000 from December 2009) rising to its highest level since February 2009. The rise in unemployment has been slightly offset by a fall in Australia’s under-employed — now 845,000 (down 87,000 from December 2009).

“Last January - in the middle of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) — with interest rates coming down there was real concern over unemployment (6.9% — 776,000) and that unemployment would soar. Unlike now, there were no concerns about inflation.

“Following three interest rate rises in October, November, December last year, January’s workforce is 11,699,000 (up 564,000 since January 2009) — the largest ever recorded. This is a combination of people putting off retiring, high immigration and Australians returning from overseas work; and the higher interest rates requiring more Australians to find work and look for more work.

“This January, with the GFC largely behind us — employment is increasing (including more people employed full-time (7,492,000, up 297,000 on January 2009) and part-time (3,332,000, up 159,000)) and there is renewed speculation about inflation.

“However, despite more people in jobs, real unemployment is significantly higher than a year ago at 7.5% — 875,000 and under-employment — is also higher at 7.2% (845,000).

“This larger pool of potential employees (1,720,000 Australians unemployed or under-employed) means there is little likelihood of a wage push causing wage inflation.

“Today’s January Roy Morgan employment estimates showing the continuing high level of unemployment and under-employment in Australia means the RBA’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75% earlier this week has been fundamentally vindicated.”

This Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘under-employed’* is based on weekly interviews covering January 2007 — January 2010 and in total 160,817 Australians aged 14 and over were interviewed face-to-face including 4,190 interviews in January 2010.

*The ‘under-employed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)

** The Fair Work Bill 2009 was introduced into the House of Representatives on 25 November 2008. The Fair Work Act 2009 received Royal Assent on 7 April 2009.

[zaph]

an update

• Quote
• In November Australia’s total unemployment as measured by Roy Morgan was 1,044,000, or 8.6% (unchanged in percentage terms, but up 18,000) from October 2011 and up 229,000 (up 1.7%) since November 2010 — Australia’s equal highest unemployment rate since March 2004 (8.8%). It is also the highest number of unemployed Australians for nearly a decade — since January 2002 (1,075,000).
  
  
• The Roy Morgan November 2011 ‘underemployed’* estimate was 938,000 (7.7%), up 90,000 (0.6%) from October 2011, and up 126,000 (0.9%) since November 2010.
  
  
• In total in November 2011 an estimated 1,982,000 (16.3%) of Australians were unemployed or ‘underemployed.’ This is up 108,000 (0.6%) on October 2011 and up 355,000 (2.6%) since November 2010.
  
  
• The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimate is 3.4% above the 5.2% currently quoted by the ABS for October 2011 — this is the equal largest gap since December 2005 (8.5% Roy Morgan cf. 5.1% ABS).
  
  
• The number of people looking for full-time employment fell slightly during the period to 560,000 (down 4,000 since October 2011), while the number looking for part-time employment was at 484,000 (up 22,000 since October 2011).
  
  
• The Australian workforce in November was up 286,000 to 12,195,000, also up 300,000 from a year ago, November 2010.
  
  
• Overall full-time employment in Australia for November rose sharply to 7,666,000 (up 535,000 since October 2011, and up 61,000 since November 2010) but part-time employment fell to 3,485,000 (down 267,000 since October 2011, but still up 10,000 since November 2010).