[Bernard L. Madoff]

There are so many Black Swans now one would think one is at a Perth city lake.

Quote

Abu Dhabi Media website The National has disclosed some rather disturbing news about peace "prospects" in the middle east. It appears this past Friday saw a war council convene in Damascus, between Syrian president Bashar al Assad, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Hizbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah to "devise counterattack plans and assign tasks in the event of an Israeli offensive on one or all parties, wrote Abdelbari Atwan, the editor-in-chief of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds al Arabi." And more troublingly, "the Iranian president said he expects war to break out somewhere between spring and summer of this year. Meanwhile, the Hizbollah chief vowed to strike the Israeli capital, its airports and power stations if Israel dared to attack Beirut’s critical infrastructure."Let's recall that Goldman's most recent 2010 and 2011 WTI estimates call for prices to rise to $90 and $110/bbl, respectively.

http://www.zerohedge...nt-expects-war-

(There is a Goldman Oil price analysis pdf link in the link)

[Chimerica]

Celente is looking right again.

I remember the last spike in oil and food prices here in Perth skyrocketed and didn't really come down there after. I'm wondering how many businesses can handle higher oil prices, it might tip the applecart.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

If the ME erupts you'll get Oil at $150 in a flash. Say 2.20/L for unleaded at the pump.

You wanna see inflation?

Every food item will climb, anything that requires transportation. Calente will be vindicated.

[spark]

Quote

the Iranian president said he expects war to break out somewhere between spring and summer of this year

Many (not all, but definitely the majority) of Israel's war adventures can be explained by its internal politics, it is a country where an external war can immediately consolidate the power of the ruling party, or at least divert the public attention to other issues.

Based on the above, Israel has no internal reason to attack anyone in the immediate future with quite a stable govt, and surprisingly booming economy.

On the other hand, Iran and Syria are much saner countries than is often believed, I don't see neither engaging in a costly war, especially when both have so many internal problems with popular support/submission to their current regimes.


Want to know when the ME might seriously explode?
- When Mr Mubarak's reign comes to an end.
I personally wish him good health and long years for the benefit of all human kind, and I'm glad to see that at his age he is being treated well:
http://www.businessw...s-update1-.html

When Mubarak goes the ME will be in a very fragile point. And everyone (there) knows it.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Interesting. So ol' Hosni is the guy to watch. Thanks Spark.

[spark]

Tinpusher, on 08 March 2010 - 03:33 AM, said:

Interesting. So ol' Hosni is the guy to watch. Thanks Spark.

You're welcome :-)

Here's more:

http://www.foreignpo...4/after_pharaoh

[spark]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 08 March 2010 - 03:33 AM, said:

Interesting. So ol' Hosni is the guy to watch. Thanks Spark.

Well, watch this space...

http://edition.cnn.c...rotests/?hpt=T1

If it is the end of Mubarak, the whole US alliance in the ME will start to collapse: Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Kuwait.
Will Obama deploy his troops in Egypt?

[spark]

First Egypt,
now Jordan: http://english.aljaz...5157509196.html

Prepare for some action soon.

[Solomon]

spark, on 29 January 2011 - 01:59 AM, said:

First Egypt,
now Jordan: http://english.aljaz...5157509196.html

Prepare for some action soon.

This is certainly a worrying development.
Like you say in a previous post - Egypt becomes strategic in a ME sheik up.
With the military kind of backing the people, I can't see Mubarak lasting too much longer.

There is always hostility festering somewhere in the desert states.

[Carly]

I read about the fruit and vegie seller who set himself on fire in the street which was the start of the protests in Tunisia. He couldn't make a living because the police would take all his produce, his scales, and would not give him a permit. They humiliated him since he was 10 when he became the prime earner for his family. His dad died when he was three. The day he set himself on fire, (age 26) a female police officer wanted his scales, he refused, so she got her buddies to beat him down and take his stuff. He went to an official to complain, but was told that offical was in a meeting. He couldn't feed his family. Yet, he was a popular man who would give produce away for free to poor families when he could.

Can you imagine the kind of anger and despair he must have felt to buy paint fuel and end his life? 50,000 people are now protesting in the streets. I think the people of Egypt have reached the stage where they know exactly how that man must have felt, and that dramatic act fuelled them into action to overthrow the corruption in their country.

[urchin]

spark, on 07 March 2010 - 10:27 AM, said:

Want to know when the ME might seriously explode?
- When Mr Mubarak's reign comes to an end.

dude, how prophetic. i would draw a cartoon of you and publish it in a dutch newspaper if i weren't a coward.

[tor]

Solomon, on 29 January 2011 - 11:45 AM, said:

...Egypt becomes strategic in a ME sheik up...

Very good

[staringclown]

This is like the russian revolution. People power coming to the fore. I read an article on aljazeera which I quite enjoyed. Not to be flippant about the situation as it could very easily turn bloody.

The concern from the US seems to be that an overthrow could result in a new fundamentalist islamic govt in Egypt. Would this really be the case? The youth seem to be driving this movement. Like they have in Iran, Tunisia and even Yemen. The middle east is not a heterogeneous society. Iran had a shah before the mullas and it was corruption that sealed his fate. This corruption still exists. The US would do well to encourage a democratic future not through the claimed freedom wars but through support for democratic movements over despots which have helped them with special rendition in the past. C'mon, Obama we thought you had more.

[Carly]

Obama is a puppet.

[ummester]

staringclown, on 30 January 2011 - 11:55 AM, said:

C'mon, Obama we thought you had more.

Perhaps that is the point of him being in power - to create hope where there is none.

Some believe the ME conflict will spill over into Northern Africa when it next takes off and that will be the battleground of America and China - if so, Obama will be most useful.

ME politics are all so confusing - it's hard to keep up. The place seems always on the verge of degenerating into chaos.

Sad, I quite enjoyed Egypt as a place to visit. Hot, full of mysoginists and with sub-par beer - but the desert around there can look truly beautiful when the sun starts setting.

[savagegoose]

USA supports the peasants cries for a democratic election but supports the gov with free riot shields, tear gas, rubber bullets and tasers.
last time i saw a rising by an arab popuation by for fredoms ignored so whoel heartedly by americans 1000's of kurds got slaughtered by saddam

[Ruffian]

staringclown, on 30 January 2011 - 11:55 AM, said:

The concern from the US seems to be that an overthrow could result in a new fundamentalist islamic govt in Egypt. Would this really be the case? The youth seem to be driving this movement. Like they have in Iran, Tunisia and even Yemen. The middle east is not a heterogeneous society. Iran had a shah before the mullas and it was corruption that sealed his fate. This corruption still exists. The US would do well to encourage a democratic future not through the claimed freedom wars but through support for democratic movements over despots which have helped them with special rendition in the past. C'mon, Obama we thought you had more.

The middle east is all about youth. Their demographics are as wildly skewed to the young as ours are to the old; more so actually.

But youth doesn't necessarily mean seeking individual freedoms - my understanding is that many young people are moving back towards religious conservatism, admittedly with a new flavour. (For the girls - Lots of bling, but still covering the head; for the boys, rejecting the local mullahs, but following the equivalent of youthful conservative tele-evangelists.)

I agree the middle east is not heterogeneous, and unfortunately I don't know enough about Egypt to comment on the likelihood of a new fundamentalist regime. It does seem to be being taken as a real threat, though.

[staringclown]

Ruffian, on 31 January 2011 - 01:57 AM, said:

The middle east is all about youth. Their demographics are as wildly skewed to the young as ours are to the old; more so actually.

But youth doesn't necessarily mean seeking individual freedoms - my understanding is that many young people are moving back towards religious conservatism, admittedly with a new flavour. (For the girls - Lots of bling, but still covering the head; for the boys, rejecting the local mullahs, but following the equivalent of youthful conservative tele-evangelists.)

I agree the middle east is not heterogeneous, and unfortunately I don't know enough about Egypt to comment on the likelihood of a new fundamentalist regime. It does seem to be being taken as a real threat, though.

Very true they have very young populations. I think that Iran has a reasonably sophisticated culture. I think a lot of the youth there were struggling under the yoke of fundamentalism. Yemen seems to be more tribal and fundamentalist. A bit like Afghanistan. Egypt I think is somewhere in between but with a divide between the more fundamentalist rural areas and the city. Like Turkey.

I agree with what Rudd said earlier tonight that the choice isn't as simple as between a fundamentalist islamist government or a despotic dictator. I think that revolution is hard and usually not undertaken lightly. They don't want the guy in charge to be in charge any more. If enough people get out and say this I see it as a de facto election and the offending despot should go rather than turn the army against the people they defend. On purely pragmatic grounds the US would be better to back the unknown good or bad option (but self determined) than stick with a regime that may or may not be able to crush the resistance and that a majority of the people despise. It would lower the general level of cynicism in the region and put them in favour with the new regimes.

[staringclown]

A good old fashioned crackdown is what's needed. Shut down the media and let the state sponsored violence begin.

[staringclown]

staringclown, on 04 February 2011 - 10:43 AM, said:

A good old fashioned crackdown is what's needed. Shut down the media and let the state sponsored violence begin.

I spoke far too soon. Quaddafi is doing exactly this. He's a murderer. Plain and simple. Why is it that whenever we (the west) appeases this sort of moron when we know they're batsh*t crazy we get proved right. I believe in procedural fairness and a system of justice. But at these times the basic human instincts come out. He's killing and needs to be stopped. Sooner rather than later.