[cobran20]

cobran20, on 28 August 2010 - 03:07 AM, said:

Let's see if the overnight action gets some traction...

The yields are trying very hard to hold the fort and rise!

Attached File(s)

•  2.jpg (305.98K)
  Number of downloads: 6
•  3.jpg (316.64K)
  Number of downloads: 6

This post has been edited by cobran20: 02 September 2010 - 10:23 AM

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 17 August 2010 - 10:21 AM, said:

The fall in the US 10 year bond yields is looking oversold. IMO, a bounce is due.

Looks like the bounce has started.

Attached File(s)

•  2.jpg (329.48K)
  Number of downloads: 9
•  1.jpg (334.94K)
  Number of downloads: 8

[boz]

Bond markets is getting a bit volatile in the last few days. The last 2 days yield have been soaring after touching new low yields in country like Australia, UK, US and Germany.
Oil is also reducing the contango spread and prices are stable for long term and rising a bit for shorter term. Copper has been quite volatile in the last week swinging back and forward a couple of times from 3.5 to 3.4$.
This morning the euro is bouncing up strong (short squeeze?), a bit unusual at this time of the day

[cobran20]

A couple of months ago the yields began to fall and I thought we were going to get a reasonable correction to the fast rise over the last year and hence an official rate cut. Fortunately I was wrong and the markets are now pricing a rate rise and hopefully the yields are back to reaching my long term target of around the 5.5% mark.

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (413.31K)
  Number of downloads: 5

[boz]

australia is also getting a short term yield higher then long term. I think it is the only wester country to get lower rates higher then longer rates (10 year).
wonder if cobran can plot a chart with the spread between 90 day bill and 10 year yield, may be some indication and link with economy status will emerge...

[Bernard L. Madoff]

boz, on 28 September 2010 - 11:03 AM, said:

australia is also getting a short term yield higher then long term. I think it is the only wester country to get lower rates higher then longer rates (10 year).
wonder if cobran can plot a chart with the spread between 90 day bill and 10 year yield, may be some indication and link with economy status will emerge...

http://www.bloomberg...onds/australia/

Brazil's got a funny 'curve' as well.

[cobran20]

boz, on 28 September 2010 - 11:03 AM, said:

australia is also getting a short term yield higher then long term. I think it is the only wester country to get lower rates higher then longer rates (10 year).
wonder if cobran can plot a chart with the spread between 90 day bill and 10 year yield, may be some indication and link with economy status will emerge...

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (111.65K)
  Number of downloads: 9

[boz]

thanks Cobran,
seems a good way to see if the RBA monetary policy is expansionary or not and we stand at zero level now.
probably if economy will keep going well we'll end up with a positive spread of shorter rates higher then longer one. If we'll get into bad time we might get a spike up like in GFC but then RBA will bring down the short rates (or try to)

[cobran20]

60 year cycle in interest rates

[tom]

Thanks cobran.

Looks like the only thing that can break us from that cycle is a civil war... Otherwise it is pretty consistent except the magnitude can vary. I'm racking another notch up for the inflationists now as I cannot see higher rates (which seems decidedly certain looking at that graph!) without inflation with modern currencies / central banking.

[cobran20]

[quote name-'cobran20', on 30 June 2010 - 08:51 PM, said:

The 90 day yields have risen a bit more, but the 10 year bond yields are heading south after that false break to the upside in April. The media have been projecting further rate rises later this year. Perhaps the 10 year bond yields might surprise them?
[/quote]

There I was 3 weeks ago getting bullish about our 90 day yields when they spiked, only to now be looking at an island reversal. Just hope those yields don't fall away.

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (406K)
  Number of downloads: 3

[boz]

I always had the feeling bond tells you a lot even if it more like an art to see it.
Gross Says Rise in 10-Year May Signify Fed Success

Quote

By Susanne Walker and Tom Keene

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Bill Gross, manager of the world’s largest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co., said a rise in 10-year Treasury note yields would signify success by the Federal Reserve in reviving inflation and economic growth.

“If it does work, here’s why the 10-year goes down in yield then back in yield, it’s because the out years, five, six, seven, eight, nine and 10 are vulnerable to inflation and higher policy rates in those particular years,” Gross said in an interview today on “Bloomberg Surveillance” with Tom Keene.

The Fed, led by Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, will announce another round of large-scale asset purchases when policy makers meet next week after deploying $1.7 trillion to pull the economy out of the financial crisis, according to a survey of the 18 primary dealers that trade debt with the central bank. Fed officials, who already cut interest rates almost to zero, are discussing more purchases of Treasuries to flood markets with cheap money as well as strategies for raising inflation expectations to prevent stagnating prices from undermining the recovery.

Gross, a founder and co-chief investment officer of Pimco, said yesterday in his monthly commentary that a renewal of asset purchases by the central bank will likely indicate the end of the 30-year bull market in bonds. Treasury yields near historically low levels in part because of Fed asset purchases make it mathematically impossible for bonds to do much better, he said today.

“It’s not an end from the standpoint of over-the-cliff or over the edge,” Gross said. “It’s not a Columbus thing where he thought he was sailing off the ocean and may fall off the edge. It’s an end from the standpoint of recognizing that certain maturities can’t go much lower in yield.”

Total Return Fund

Gross has reduced holdings of government-related debt in the Total Return Fund for the third straight month in September, after the securities accounted for 63 percent of assets in June, the highest since it held an equal amount in October 2009.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped from a 2010 high of 4.01 percent in April to a low of 2.33 percent on Oct. 8, according to Bloomberg data, as investors purchased Treasuries in anticipation of further asset purchases by the central bank. The record of 2.04 percent was set in December 2008.

Pimco added to its mortgage holdings in September to 28 percent of assets, from 21 percent the prior month. Pimco also expanded its emerging-market debt to 12 percent last month, the highest since at least September 2006. Non-U.S. developed debt was unchanged at 6 percent.

The Total Return Fund, also the world’s biggest mutual fund, handed investors a gain of about 11.09 percent in the past year, beating about 76 percent of its peers, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Pimco, a unit of Munich-based insurer Allianz SE, managed $1.236 trillion of assets as of September.

To contact the reporter on this story: Susanne Walker in New York at swalker33@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Dave Liedtka at dliedtka@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 28, 2010 13:42 EDT

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 15 October 2010 - 09:20 AM, said:

There I was 3 weeks ago getting bullish about our 90 day yields when they spiked, only to now be looking at an island reversal. Just hope those yields don't fall away.

Unlike the past, unfortunately the 90 day yields no longer provide advanced warning of what the RBA is likely to do with official interest rates. Let's hope they now clear 5% to continue to my long term target of 5.5%.

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (411.95K)
  Number of downloads: 1

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 03 November 2010 - 10:45 AM, said:

Unlike the past, unfortunately the 90 day yields no longer provide advanced warning of what the RBA is likely to do with official interest rates. Let's hope they now clear 5% to continue to my long term target of 5.5%.

The yields have broken above 5%.

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (404.23K)
  Number of downloads: 5

[cobran20]

The gap between bond and lower quality securities in the US is growing. Looks like yield investors are getting more risk averse.

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (340.01K)
  Number of downloads: 4

[boz]

Bond volatility is spiking yield is rising in all major economy, US 30 years is at 4.45 and 10 years getting close to 3%. Uk 10 year is spiking to at 3.27%, german and other EU countries yield is rising too.
Australia yield is also rising at 5.4%.
May be Bernanke policy is winning and inflation expectations are rising...

[Solomon]

boz, on 15 November 2010 - 09:08 PM, said:

Bond volatility is spiking yield is rising in all major economy, US 30 years is at 4.45 and 10 years getting close to 3%. Uk 10 year is spiking to at 3.27%, german and other EU countries yield is rising too.
Australia yield is also rising at 5.4%.
May be Bernanke policy is winning and inflation expectations are rising...

Maybe you're the eternal optimist - boz.
The only reason bonds are enjoying a temporary reprieve is because; nobody knows where to put their wealth now to keep it secure.
For a while there, they thought it might be safe in AUD, but that's looking just a little fragile at the moment due to house price tip over.
Investments in Asia, looked safe too, for a while, until China, began to wind back inflation worries.
There is still investment in emerging economies, but they are still a little volatile.
Everything is looking like custard, and people are piling in to whatever is considered the next best thing.

They are going to lose it all, if they are not careful.
Oh well, win some, lose some.
We were never meant to have more than we need to simply live anyhow. The rest is greed.

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 11 November 2010 - 09:38 AM, said:

The gap between bond and lower quality securities in the US is growing. Looks like yield investors are getting more risk averse.

That risk aversion is causing a lot of pain for the Californinan municipal bond holders...

California Muni Bond Fund Shellacking

[boz]

I am back in a bond watch mode, today German bond had a bit of a rally in yield, a bit surprising as usually they fall in yield when trouble are growing in PIGS nations. may be that is a sign of something fundamental on bond yield rising? Aslo later last night bad data came out of US like lower PPI and industrial production that pushed yield of US bond down with sharemarket, deflation fear is already back in USA?

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 04 September 2010 - 05:51 AM, said:

Looks like the bounce has started.

I hope Ben is not too surprised at what the bond market thinks of his QE1...n policy. Otherwise he is a bigger idiot that what I suspected!

Still, the yield need to rise substantially more to confirm a long term breakout. But the 2008 low has now been holding for a couple of years. So it continues to reaffirm that the trend in rates is up.

Attached File(s)

•  4.jpg (292.69K)
  Number of downloads: 4
•  1.jpg (346.71K)
  Number of downloads: 6
•  2.jpg (327.71K)
  Number of downloads: 6
•  3.jpg (263.21K)
  Number of downloads: 3