[cobran20]

It still has further to fall, perhaps back to 1:1 again.

Dow priced in gold

[cobran20]

US housing back to long term 2-3x median income levels

[tor]

cobran20, on 13 November 2009 - 10:33 PM, said:

US housing back to long term 2-3x median income levels

Nice to see you, hope it isn't a temporary visit.

Would you (as a chartist) be saying that the gold might be worth converting to DOW soon? looks that way to me but I am crap at predictions and charting.

[cobran20]

tor, on 14 November 2009 - 02:03 AM, said:

Nice to see you, hope it isn't a temporary visit.

Would you (as a chartist) be saying that the gold might be worth converting to DOW soon? looks that way to me but I am crap at predictions and charting.

If I was earning $US, from a long term perspective, I'd say that gold would be a safe bet. Perhaps you could do better out of the stock market if you were good at timing it, but whilst I'm expecting a bounce in the $US, on a longer term basis I think it is more inclined to drop to new lows, probably related to the mindless size of the US deficit.


Looks like a temporary visit for me as GHPC is operational. I thought it was gone this time but it isn't. I don't have the time to read lots of forums and there seem to be some smart posters at GHPC, though a lot of f'wits as well. If it gets too much, I might consider moving again.

[tor]

cobran20, on 14 November 2009 - 02:59 AM, said:

If I was earning $US, from a long term perspective, I'd say that gold would be a safe bet. Perhaps you could do better out of the stock market if you were good at timing it, but whilst I'm expecting a bounce in the $US, on a longer term basis I think it is more inclined to drop to new lows, probably related to the mindless size of the US deficit.


Looks like a temporary visit for me as GHPC is operational. I thought it was gone this time but it isn't. I don't have the time to read lots of forums and there seem to be some smart posters at GHPC, though a lot of f'wits as well. If it gets too much, I might consider moving again.

Don't get your hopes up, we have our fuckwits too, fortunately most of them are drivebys due to volume.

I would like to see your charts again though without wading through the fuckwits and would happily see you cross post etc.

Perhaps I ought to take out GHPC so that you come here permanently hehehehe

[wulfgar]

tor, on 14 November 2009 - 02:03 AM, said:

Nice to see you, hope it isn't a temporary visit.

Would you (as a chartist) be saying that the gold might be worth converting to DOW soon? looks that way to me but I am crap at predictions and charting.

Traditionally both the Dow and ASX will bottom buying one ounce of gold. So buy gold until them.

Generally the ASX purchase in gold varies between 1 ounce and 10 ounces. So in theory the ASX is a reasonable buy at 4 ounces. But company raising's which are essentially dilution of share value, are rife at this time.

So tor buy gold, when the ASX gets to one ounce, sell gold buy ASX. Then you can give up working long hours. Go to finishing school and learn how to be human and everybody will mistake you for normal then!

[tor]

wulfgar, on 14 November 2009 - 08:09 AM, said:

Traditionally both the Dow and ASX will bottom buying one ounce of gold. So buy gold until them.

Generally the ASX purchase in gold varies between 1 ounce and 10 ounces. So in theory the ASX is a reasonable buy at 4 ounces. But company raising's which are essentially dilution of share value, are rife at this time.

So tor buy gold, when the ASX gets to one ounce, sell gold buy ASX. Then you can give up working long hours. Go to finishing school and learn how to be human and everybody will mistake you for normal then!

Well given that the only reason I joined cracker was your crazy arse notions regarding gold and they have paid off well I will, with no intellectual involvement, probably grab some more.

Hopefully it will then crash and I can blame you for all my crushed dreams

Oh looks like I might be back in Melbourne next friday. When confirmed I will post a beer thread, early warning though. You interested?

[wulfgar]

tor, on 14 November 2009 - 08:16 AM, said:

Well given that the only reason I joined cracker was your crazy arse notions regarding gold and they have paid off well I will, with no intellectual involvement, probably grab some more.

Hopefully it will then crash and I can blame you for all my crushed dreams

Oh looks like I might be back in Melbourne next friday. When confirmed I will post a beer thread, early warning though. You interested?

I imagine I could be there, but I also imagine I'm the reincarnation of a Viking Politician. So when I say imagine, it could mean anything.

Well gold, if you wish to play clever I'd look for a price when the AUD hits 110 cents, then load up. Then buy a larger fish tank with larger meaner fish, should work out.

[cobran20]

wulfgar, on 14 November 2009 - 08:09 AM, said:

Traditionally both the Dow and ASX will bottom buying one ounce of gold. So buy gold until them.

Generally the ASX purchase in gold varies between 1 ounce and 10 ounces. So in theory the ASX is a reasonable buy at 4 ounces. But company raising's which are essentially dilution of share value, are rife at this time.

So tor buy gold, when the ASX gets to one ounce, sell gold buy ASX. Then you can give up working long hours. Go to finishing school and learn how to be human and everybody will mistake you for normal then!

It got down to almost 2:1 when things fell apart on the ASX. You may have to wait a couple of years before you get your 1:1 again. But it seems a fair long term target:

ASX/Gold in $A ratio


Edit: I've had to add a link to the chart as attaching to my posting failed???

[RumpledElf]

cobran20, on 14 November 2009 - 10:31 AM, said:

Edit: I've had to add a link to the chart as attaching to my posting failed???

What format was the chart and how big? It might not be on the allowed attachments list, or it was too big or something - those settings haven't really been tweaked.

[cobran20]

RumpledElf, on 14 November 2009 - 10:38 AM, said:

What format was the chart and how big? It might not be on the allowed attachments list, or it was too big or something - those settings haven't really been tweaked.

It was a 211Kb JPG file.

[tor]

cobran20, on 14 November 2009 - 10:31 AM, said:

It got down to almost 2:1 when things fell apart on the ASX. You may have to wait a couple of years before you get your 1:1 again. But it seems a fair long term target:

ASX/Gold in $A ratio


Edit: I've had to add a link to the chart as attaching to my posting failed???

Um gold in early 09 was a 20 yr historic buy in asx yes?

(sometimes I get these charts backwards so am checking)

Am I correct in assuming that the ASX is going to be strongly linked to gold prices because we are one of the main gold producers or I am being naive? I realise there is no simple cross correlation.

[wulfgar]

tor, on 14 November 2009 - 10:51 AM, said:

Um gold in early 09 was a 20 yr historic buy in asx yes?

(sometimes I get these charts backwards so am checking)

Am I correct in assuming that the ASX is going to be strongly linked to gold prices because we are one of the main gold producers or I am being naive? I realise there is no simple cross correlation.

The concept would be a monetary one. Both acting as measures of the absolute monetary medium. The Dow reached a low of one ounce in 1934, the two love birds met again 46 years later in 1980.

The dow fell to 1.3 ounces soon after it was created in 1896 and close to an ounce around 1906 in the midst of a US financial crisis.

A relationship can be fixed, cardinal or mutable.

Fixed would mean the two values remain close in sync and that doesn't happen. Mutable should the two lines meet by accident and go their separate ways to never meet again or if they do, it is again purely by accident.

Cardinal is the Latin word for "hinged". The two depart depart company for even lengthy periods, but there is a link as a lead ties a dog to its master. They seem to diverge but the two can never be fully apart.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

http://jessescrossro...ows-fading.html

[Bernard L. Madoff]

cobran20, on 13 November 2009 - 10:29 PM, said:

It still has further to fall, perhaps back to 1:1 again.

Dow priced in gold

http://home.earthlin.../com-dow-au.htm

http://www.financial.../2009/1005.html

http://seekingalpha....-dow-gold-ratio

[Bernard L. Madoff]

More upside?
http://www.zerohedge...e/getting-close

Quote

The attached 5-minute chart is updated from this morning to reflect the fractal nature of this final impulse we have been discussing. I believe we need a little more patience and we will have one last push to new highs before the market retraces to 1,033/1,012 which is the medium term key support to the uptrend. If 1,095.50 is violated then we will not make new highs, but at this point on the upside the market is more prone to run extensions than truncate a move up. Once the low of wave 4 is in I will update the final target for the new high.

Meredith Whitney:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33974782

Interesting chart of the trading "game" played by computers across NE USA.
1. http://2.bp.blogspot...reenShot002.JPG

2. http://2.bp.blogspot...e_annotated.jpg

[pinozi]

Tinpusher, on 17 November 2009 - 01:18 AM, said:

Meredith Whitney:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/33974782

Cheers for that - I like it when the belle of the bears says shes never been more bearish on the banks!

XJO has broken last weeks lows and looks like the right shoulder has been formed of the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart

[cobran20]

BearTrap, on Oct 15 2009, 01:14 PM, said:

Gold is in a big bubble.. ifact gold is going down already in compare with Australia dollars ! Property is a safer choice people can make !

Pls consider. thxs

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (152.96K)
  Number of downloads: 17

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Sourced from a trusted friend:

Quote

"Just read a JPM research piece on flows. US retail SOLD 18bn of equity mutual funds in Q3. They sold 57bn equity mutual funds in 2009 total. they took 215bn out of money market funds. Of this 272bn, they bought 184bn of Bond funds, and the rest went to savings acocunts. This rally in equities is NOT retail driven. It is driven by pros. Investment ... Read Morebanks. Corporates. Sovereign wealth funds. And they are using leverage. This is hot money. S&P 50% retracement of the entire move lower is 1120. If we break higher AND retail get involved then there could be a lot of upside. In a week I think we will know if we have broken to the upside or failed and headed lower. VIX at 22% suggests a move is coming. I suspect we will see a false break one way into the holiday season, and then a reversal which will screw the most people. sorry bout the long comment.."

[pinozi]

Very bearish candle on IPL daily chart

XJO also had a big reversal today, downside momentum could build up if fridays lows are taken out tomorrow