[Bernard L. Madoff]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 03 September 2010 - 02:12 PM, said:

...and the buy and hold idiots will get burned. I don't know Sol, I hold my trades for a few days max. Madness, utter madness.

although Max Carnage's spreadsheet a few threads down gives me ideas on my super.

US Job losses interactive

http://online.wsj.co...6.html?mod=e2tw

[Dose]

Quote

"By and large, the news had been better this week," said Andrew M. Brooks, vice president and head of U.S. equity trading at T. Rowe Price. "We're coming back. The bounce-back suggests that we were probably oversold. Treasurys and money markets are paying very little, so if investors want any return they have to take a little risk and get back into equities."

Non Apocalyptic News = Good News = Financial blackmail...
Boomers? Anyone?
Washington Post

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Quote

if investors want any return they have to take a little risk and get back into equities.

How about return OF my capital not return ON my capital.

[Dose]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 04 September 2010 - 08:10 AM, said:

How about return OF my capital not return ON my capital.

hehe..."if investors want any return they'll have to take a little risk on equities".
No fundamental analysis of the economic goings on, just a "safe = 0 return = Buy Equities" analysis. Good Christ. Run.
MAQ Fixed Interest did ~9% last year. I'll take that, thanks.
It is starting to look a lot like theft.


Edit: Core Australian Fixed Interest 11% link

This post has been edited by Dose: 04 September 2010 - 08:43 AM

[Plonk]

Dose, what was the MAQ fixed interest product you referred to? Sounds like a pretty high return.

It looks like the Aussie equity markets will go for a run on monday- our futures are up 50 points and Asia is up, too.

Globalisation, my fortune-teller.

The most recent high of the All Ords, at 5025 was only 5 months ago. We're still down about 8% from then.

Oops, Dose- I see the link- thanks. Does that have high fees as a MF? For better or worse, I still only trust myself with my own money. I'm not sure I could do an MF.

This post has been edited by Plonk: 04 September 2010 - 08:57 AM

[Dose]

Plonk, on 04 September 2010 - 08:54 AM, said:

Oops, Dose- I see the link- thanks. Does that have high fees as a MF? For better or worse, I still only trust myself with my own money. I'm not sure I could do an MF.

It must have high fees...it was in my work Super and return was ~9%. I was surprised to see 11% on their Perf. Summary.
Need to "invest" some time into figuring out SMSF.

[Plonk]

No kidding. My super is on my list. I have all these useless little accounts eroding away via fees, as well as some bigger ones, no doubt also eroding away. I figure I've got a few decades to sort it.

[Solomon]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 03 September 2010 - 02:48 PM, said:

US Job losses interactive

http://online.wsj.co...6.html?mod=e2tw

Thanks TP.
You are always very generous with your own research.
Certainly helps me.
That little interactive was quite revealing. So the Health reforms Obama has been pushing is the real growth industry, and so most of the jobs are probably public funded.
Thanks again TP.

[Dose]

Solomon, on 04 September 2010 - 10:30 AM, said:

So the Health reforms Obama has been pushing is the real growth industry, and so most of the jobs are probably public funded.

I'll posit Healthcare will grow for the next 20 years. All those empty primary schools need to be converted to aged care.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Dose, on 04 September 2010 - 08:22 AM, said:

hehe..."if investors want any return they'll have to take a little risk on equities".
No fundamental analysis of the economic goings on, just a "safe = 0 return = Buy Equities" analysis. Good Christ. Run.
MAQ Fixed Interest did ~9% last year. I'll take that, thanks.
It is starting to look a lot like theft.


Edit: Core Australian Fixed Interest 11% link

Thats brilliant. 11% in fixed interest is excellent. Why would you bother trying to catch a falling knife in the US sharemarket (the ASX is really just a backwater regional branch of the NYSE) with returns like that.

Very low Management Fees and zero entry and exit fees. Very interesting. Thanks.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

PIMCO

19%
http://www.investsma...-Fund-10877.asp

13.5%
http://www.investsma...-Fund-10875.asp

[Bernard L. Madoff]

25K in a 7% TD gets you $10K in profit over 5 years.

75K borrowed as a margin loan at 10% is $20K in interest paid over 5 years.

However 25K down, 75K borrowed at Margin and 100K in a group of funds returning 10% and its a profit of 61K over 5 years thats a net 41k once the marging loan interest is paid.

Food for thought.

(Margin loan rates http://www.comsec.co...PublicMenu=TRUE )

Better than an IP and IRs are a tax deduction.

[savagegoose]

not that i noticed these guys before SFR where 5.5c a share at mid 2008 crisis , now $5.50 a share. next time we have a crash someone remind me to spend around $1000 ea on a few small cap exploreres.

This post has been edited by savagegoose: 04 September 2010 - 02:14 PM

[urchin]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 04 September 2010 - 01:36 PM, said:

25K in a 7% TD gets you $10K in profit over 5 years.

75K borrowed as a margin loan at 10% is $20K in interest paid over 5 years.

However 25K down, 75K borrowed at Margin and 100K in a group of funds returning 10% and its a profit of 61K over 5 years thats a net 41k once the marging loan interest is paid.

Food for thought.

(Margin loan rates http://www.comsec.co...PublicMenu=TRUE )

Better than an IP and IRs are a tax deduction.

but the key problem is finding funds that are able to consistently return 10%+ per annum, no? i downloaded the mac true aus. fixed interest fund prospectus but gave up after a few pages since i don't have 500k+ to invest anyway. but if they are paying 10%+ there has to be a reason. and it seems highly unlikely that that reason is risk-free or even low-risk. add to that that part of the portfolio appears to be comprised of RMBS & all sorts of alarm bells go off.

not saying that it is a bad investment, only that it is a complicated one. for neophytes like myself the TD seems a much more straightforward, low-risk option.


you seem awfully bearish on shares, the US and the global economic scene as a whole so i don't know why this kind of investment would be particularly appealing. macquarie's reputation is not exactly sterling--they got slammed hard in the gfc--and i would not expect them to fare any better the second time around if the double dip manifests itself...

[Bernard L. Madoff]

I'm a big fan of PIMCO but as you say I'd need to look at where the bonds are issued. I think the US economy is cactus so bonds/fixed interest is where to be. The Australian stock market just does what the US one does.

I'm going to investigate this:

http://www.investsma...-Fund-10875.asp

and

http://www.eqt.com.a...ail.aspx?ID=223

[Bernard L. Madoff]

I'm going to call PIMCO and get them to send me stuff on their Aus funds.

http://australia.pim...Real+Return.htm

[Dose]

urchin, on 04 September 2010 - 02:23 PM, said:

but the key problem is finding funds that are able to consistently return 10%+ per annum, no? i downloaded the mac true aus. fixed interest fund prospectus but gave up after a few pages since i don't have 500k+ to invest anyway. but if they are paying 10%+ there has to be a reason. and it seems highly unlikely that that reason is risk-free or even low-risk. add to that that part of the portfolio appears to be comprised of RMBS & all sorts of alarm bells go off.

not saying that it is a bad investment, only that it is a complicated one. for neophytes like myself the TD seems a much more straightforward, low-risk option.


you seem awfully bearish on shares, the US and the global economic scene as a whole so i don't know why this kind of investment would be particularly appealing. macquarie's reputation is not exactly sterling--they got slammed hard in the gfc--and i would not expect them to fare any better the second time around if the double dip manifests itself...

Absolutely! I stumbled into this one (or something very close to this one) through my Super choices menu...I moved into fixed a few years ago more for safe haven than savvy. I am bearish on shares...I cannot see how co's will be able to maintain earnings and earnings growth amidst growing unemployment, a US housing sector with years of unsold inventory, Boomers soon needing to "unlock" their wealth and a gov't deficit that if not defaulted on must be taxed to recover. The FED buys more Treasuries and the market reacts like it is good news.
To me in my little under-informed world this rally doesn't feel right i.e. VIX is dropping in an environment where the S&P500 added 3.75% last week . An old rule in gambling is if you don't understand the game don't play it. I don't throw $200 into a game of Craps why the heck should I feel confident with my Super in this environment?


I have been learning about bonds and when to / how to and to your point struggle to understand what to buy and how to buy. And even though that Macquarie return is pretty darned tasty I have to admit, wtf did they do to manage THAT?? I ask my Super "advisor" and get the feeling I know more about these products than he does. And I don't know anything!

I'm starting to think the theory about a range-bound sharemarket trapped by a fundamentally crippled US economy has some merit. I'd take 6% PA right now without complaint. Going to have to read up on that fund (figure out exactly which one it is) and see how they a) managed to get that return and how they plan to repeat. Could be a lucky moment pick and might not be a bad time to move out of it. You can throw TDs into a SMSF, no? That would require figuring out how to set up a SMSF...

Cobran, Bernie, Max et al please continue the commentary...it gives me something to do instead about worry about what I've done!

This post has been edited by Dose: 04 September 2010 - 05:50 PM

[Plonk]

savagegoose, on 04 September 2010 - 02:13 PM, said:

not that i noticed these guys before SFR where 5.5c a share at mid 2008 crisis , now $5.50 a share. next time we have a crash someone remind me to spend around $1000 ea on a few small cap exploreres.

Ye, I had a buy order on that one at $3.37 but took it off- I thought I was paying too much at the time. Up 10% on a resource upgrade on Friday. I guess they call 5.5c to $5.50 more than a ten-bagger, which is what everyone seems to be looking for I didn't even think about shares when the GFC occurred. I'm so glad I wasn't in prior. So much money was lost.

[Plonk]

Dose, on 04 September 2010 - 05:48 PM, said:

i.e. VIX is dropping in an environment where the S&P500 added 3.75% last week .

VIX goes down when the shares go up. On a good day on the shares, the VIX will be red and perhaps gold will be red. The VIX index was about 45 when the flash crash happened, and now it's 21.31. I am wondering will it disappear if we ever had a bull market!

[Plonk]

This might help Telstra:

http://www.smh.com.a...0904-14vd4.html