[cobran20]

IMO, 0% chance of a rate rise tomorrow.

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[yoda]

cobran20, on 30 November 2009 - 06:05 AM, said:

IMO, 0% chance of a rate rise tomorrow.

That has been my opinion. Things seem to have wonky legs again at the moment, and will the unbias RBA board want to spoil their vested interests as Christmas time?

Media has been banging on about an unprecedented rate rise tomorrow. How can something be unprecedented but have happened 19 years ago. Gooder Engrish OzTV.

RBA surprise me, put it up again.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Premarket futures down (put it in your favourites)...

http://www.bloomberg...ks/futures.html

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 28 November 2009 - 10:19 PM, said:

If it breaks below the trendline, next stop should be the 4000-4200 mark.

The ASX did yesterday what some of the European indices (FTSE, DAX) did on Friday - had a large rally. The US indices did no follow through to the downside overnight. So it doesn't look like there is any hurry to drop. This could be setting itself up as a congestion/consolidation before another rally. The stats show that November - April/May are traditionally the best months for US indices (with exceptions of course). So we could be climbing the wall of worry. I'll stick to watching the trendline!

[cobran20]

yoda, on 30 November 2009 - 11:08 AM, said:

That has been my opinion. Things seem to have wonky legs again at the moment, and will the unbias RBA board want to spoil their vested interests as Christmas time?

Media has been banging on about an unprecedented rate rise tomorrow. How can something be unprecedented but have happened 19 years ago. Gooder Engrish OzTV.

RBA surprise me, put it up again.

The 90 day yields rose yesterday and are up today (see attached). But I still don't see it enough to project a rate rise today. We'll find out in a couple of hours.

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[cobran20]

cobran20, on 30 November 2009 - 11:13 PM, said:

The 90 day yields rose yesterday and are up today (see attached). But I still don't see it enough to project a rate rise today. We'll find out in a couple of hours.

Why didn't the market give the advance warning it usually does?

[spark]

cobran20, on 01 December 2009 - 03:34 AM, said:

Why didn't the market give the advance warning it usually does?

Glenn was lurking this thread and wanted to make a point.
Reflexivity...

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 28 November 2009 - 10:19 PM, said:

If it breaks below the trendline, next stop should be the 4000-4200 mark.

Alternatively, the All Ords could be in a symmetrical triangle. Just have to wait an see which way it breaks.

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[firehawk]

cobran20, on 01 December 2009 - 09:37 AM, said:

Alternatively, the All Ords could be in a symmetrical triangle. Just have to wait an see which way it breaks.

It could well be that but the breakdown measurement of the possible symmetrical triangle is not that different to the head and shoulders breakdown target.

We'll see if the RBA prints enough cash to drive the break upwards.

[yoda]

spark, on 01 December 2009 - 03:49 AM, said:

Glenn was lurking this thread and wanted to make a point.
Reflexivity...

Go Glenn, tell me what for!

I am not convinced he and other board members have the cuhoonis to put rates back up to neutral levels. Prove me wrong punks.

[cobran20]

firehawk, on 01 December 2009 - 11:17 AM, said:

It could well be that but the breakdown measurement of the possible symmetrical triangle is not that different to the head and shoulders breakdown target.

We'll see if the RBA prints enough cash to drive the break upwards.

Volume on the Dow has picked up considerably during the last two up days. Perhaps a Xmas rally ahead? Whilst the lower trendline is not broken, the party continues.

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[Bernard L. Madoff]

Watch the DX for a 74 breakdown.

[Mod - edit - removed the embedded image as it was popping up a username and password dialogue]

[Bernard L. Madoff]

If your 401k (USA) was all in equities in 1999. Guess what? You haven't made a dime....

http://jessescrossro...n-equities.html

[cobran20]

Is it going to happen this year?

Santa Claus Rally: 40% of the Dow’s Yearly Gain in a 17-Day Stretch

Quote

A few weeks ago, I ran the numbers of how well the stock market does for each day of the year. I looked at all of the Dow closings going back to the beginning of the index in 1896.

The best time of the year is a 17-day stretch from December 21 to January 7. Over the last 111 years, the Dow has gained an average of 3.39% during that 17-day period.

To put that in some perspective, the Dow’s annual gain is 8.32%. This means that more than 40% of the Dow’s yearly gain has come during this brief stretch which is less than 1/20 of the entire year

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 02 December 2009 - 10:02 AM, said:

Volume on the Dow has picked up considerably during the last two up days. Perhaps a Xmas rally ahead? Whilst the lower trendline is not broken, the party continues.

The Dow continues to struggle to get above the 50% retracement of the big drop it had after the 2007 top. If it doesn't break above relatively soon, the party could turn sour.

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[cobran20]

The yields are rising again. Perhaps a Feb 2010 rate rise?

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[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 30 November 2009 - 06:05 AM, said:

IMO, 0% chance of a rate rise tomorrow.

Was that a bad batch of chicken entrails?

Quote

We'll see if the RBA prints enough cash to drive the break upwards.

Doesn't look like they are printing much cash at all.

Banknotes in circulation 12 months ago.............$50,373 million

.........................today.....................$49,560 million

Looks like deflation dude, if anything they have unprinted!

Watch those dollar shorts go to hell! No equity fairy this Xmas!

[Brimble]

wulfgar, on 10 December 2009 - 12:57 AM, said:

Was that a bad batch of chicken entrails?



Doesn't look like they are printing much cash at all.

Banknotes in circulation 12 months ago.............$50,373 million

.........................today.....................$49,560 million

Looks like deflation dude, if anything they have unprinted!

Watch those dollar shorts go to hell! No equity fairy this Xmas!

Should be seeing some repo property on the market any time now ?

Tom

[wulfgar]

Brimble, on 10 December 2009 - 01:35 AM, said:

Should be seeing some repo property on the market any time now ?

Tom

I've been suspecting this for quite a while. I believe the world's mainstream central banks operate under an agreement about how much currency they are allowed to create. And this agreement goes back to Basel 1988. Something that was formulated in hindsight of the riotous currency printing of the 1970's.

The world collectively splurged last year and now the central banks have to make up for it by cutting back this year.

I'd say the banks raising rates at breakneck pace is proof they're experiencing a shortage of cash.

Always remember though raising rates is just one method of rationing money, they could simply curtail lending if they chose.

[merovingian]

wulfgar, on 10 December 2009 - 12:57 AM, said:

Banknotes in circulation 12 months ago.............$50,373 million

.........................today.....................$49,560 million

Looks like deflation dude, if anything they have unprinted!

How do they reduce the notes in circulation? Old notes being removed, but not replaced by newly printed notes? That, plus other means?