[cobran20]

If mortgages in the US are based on the 30 year bond yields, then I expect that mortgages rates will rise substantially next year.

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[pinozi]

USD index keeps bouncing and US market keeps making new highs - even if only by a small %

If this continues onto early next year then a bear like me will be really confused

[firehawk]

pinozi, on 23 December 2009 - 12:39 AM, said:

USD index keeps bouncing and US market keeps making new highs - even if only by a small %

If this continues onto early next year then a bear like me will be really confused

Right now, I think the big capital ship, the USS Dollar is now turning around and going South again.

[cobran20]

firehawk, on 24 December 2009 - 07:38 AM, said:

Right now, I think the big capital ship, the USS Dollar is now turning around and going South again.

Here comes the re-test of the lows!

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 19 December 2009 - 02:09 AM, said:

IMO, the All Ords is getting close to showing its hand. I'm expecting for the indice to break below its support. The market breadth as seen by the All Ords A/D line, plainly stinks!

Perhaps I should have read the notes on symmetrical triangles a bit more closely- they're continuation patterns!

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[pinozi]

firehawk, on 24 December 2009 - 07:38 AM, said:

Right now, I think the big capital ship, the USS Dollar is now turning around and going South again.

cobran20, on 24 December 2009 - 10:10 AM, said:

Here comes the re-test of the lows!

Well if the USD carry trade relationship holds then its off to new highs for the world stock markets, just keep buying dips

[cobran20]

The almost parabolic rise in the US' MZM seems to be over by looking at the '% Change' graph. The RBA's Assets & Liabilities bottom line is also down. Looks like the central bankers are reducing their QE?

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[cobran20]

RE advertising has been going gangbusters. But how much more sustainable is the current trend?

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[cobran20]

A couple of interesting articles:

Why Investors Are Going Crazy For Australia
The Greatest Sucker's Rally In History
China Should Just Buy Australia

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Ghosts of 1987...

Quote

Here is Joe Saluzzi's excellent explanation for the 'odd' market behaviour which many traders have noted to me in the past few weeks.

But it was not until today that it 'clicked' in my mind that this is setting up like the market crash of 1987, for purely technical reasons. The volumes are so hugely dominated by 'high frequency systems trading' that if and when a dislocation occurs, and it may only take something trivial to set it off when the time comes, the market will gain a moementum to the downside that the government may not view so favorably and dismissively.

And in response to such a meltdown, one of the first things the Poseur-in-Chief might consider doing is replacing the current head of the SEC, Mary Schapiro, who has managed to become almost as useless as Christopher Cox, the SEC head under Bush. Granted, the SEC is an awful place to work, rubbing shoulders with the wealthy on a meager government salary while every swinging Congressman cuts your funding when not making personal calls to protect their campaign contributors. But really, the people of the US deserve much better from their government than franchised looting and organized mispricing of risk. It really is becoming that blatant.

Video embedded in link:
http://jessescrossro...ts-of-1987.html

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Is Dow @ 1000 a silly number?

http://longwavegroup...222_Dow1000.pdf

[Bernard L. Madoff]

http://www.bloomberg...5k1XdhVlg&pos=5

Quote

Sprott Says S&P 500 Index Will Plunge Below March Low (Update3) By Matt Walcoff

Dec. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will collapse below its March lows as an expected rebound in economic growth fails to materialize, according to hedge fund manager Eric Sprott.

The Toronto-based money manager, whose Sprott Hedge Fund returned about 496 percent in the past nine years as the S&P 500 lost 32 percent in Canadian dollar terms, said the index’s 66 percent rally since March 9 reflects investors misinterpreting economic data. He’s predicting the gauge will fall 40 percent to below 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9.

“We’re in a bear market that will last 15 or 20 years, and we’ve had nine of them,” Sprott, chief executive officer of Sprott Asset Management LP, which oversees C$4.3 billion ($4.09 billion), said in an interview Dec. 18.

Investors in Sprott’s funds have been rewarded by his holdings in gold, which has climbed 48 percent since the S&P 500 peaked in October 2007. The stock has since fallen 28 percent and declined 0.1 percent to 1,126.20 today for its first loss in seven sessions.

Sprott said the Federal Reserve has kept bond yields and interest rates artificially low through its program to buy agency debt and mortgage-backed securities. The central bank expects the securities purchase program to finish by the end of March.

Expiration of the program would reduce demand for fixed- income securities, forcing up bond yields and interest rates and hurting economic growth, Sprott said.

[cobran20]

The All Ords is about to hit the 50% retracement of the bear market, which is the 'classic' retracement for major turns. If it clearly breaks above 5000, then the next target is around 5400. Above that, the whole notion that we're in a bear market rally comes into question.

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[sydney3000]

I don't know about everyone else but every market metric I am looking at is showing perfectly V-shaped charts under manipulation.

[tux]

Anyone here care to comment on why IPL share price is doing nicely these last six weeks?

I'm assuming the big fall in IPL share price was due to at least two factors: a) big fall in fertiliser prices, b ) debt or funding of dyno-nobel acquisition

I've seen graphs which suggest fertiliser prices may have bottomed, but no serious upward movement in fertiliser prices unless I am not seeing recent enough data. Is the market pricing in a sharp rise in fertiliser price to come?

During a recent shareholder address, they stated that explosives account for more than half of their revenues now. A number of mineral prices are sharply up these last few weeks looking at these. and apparently the Dyno-Nobel side of the business did well last year (but that's past performance).

[cobran20]

tux, on 07 January 2010 - 02:38 AM, said:

Anyone here care to comment on why IPL share price is doing nicely these last six weeks?

I'm assuming the big fall in IPL share price was due to at least two factors: a) big fall in fertiliser prices, b ) debt or funding of dyno-nobel acquisition

I've seen graphs which suggest fertiliser prices may have bottomed, but no serious upward movement in fertiliser prices unless I am not seeing recent enough data. Is the market pricing in a sharp rise in fertiliser price to come?

During a recent shareholder address, they stated that explosives account for more than half of their revenues now. A number of mineral prices are sharply up these last few weeks looking at these. and apparently the Dyno-Nobel side of the business did well last year (but that's past performance).

IPL is a beneficiary of the commodities sector, which overall seems to be rising.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Keep an eye on this in 2010...
http://www.zerohedge...bs-only-edition

and

http://www.zerohedge...rations-prevail

[sydney3000]

I don't know which way the wind blows on commodities but I have a fact to report.

Coles just dropped the REGULAR price of 1kg cheese from $7.43 to $6.99 at my store.

[cobran20]

It looks as if the markets are pricing the worst of the US RE/REIT problems as being behind us.

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[cobran20]

The chart of the price of wheat, which I first posted on GHPC a couple of months ago continues to rise from a very long term oversold level. The chart of the CRB Index is also bullish. Our $A seems to have finished its correction and parity could be the next stop.

If correct, resource rich countries like Canada and Australia would be major beneficiaries of such boom. Unemployment should drop this year. IMO, unless the RBA raises interest rates fast enough, a bust in RE is not likely to be on the cards for 2010 at least.

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