[booboo]

Plonk; interesting pie chart, but to be honest it'd be more interesting if it was a bar graph as per % of total sales are auctions. Hard to tell without relative size of markets.

[Plonk]

Probably true, booboo. I see it more as a visual indicator of how few auctions are held in Tassie, Perth and Canberra, because noone much seems to sell by auction in those places (not much in Adelaide either, by the looks). Because auction use is so large in Melbourne, if completion rates fall, it is either (i) a structural problem of the auction method, or (ii) an indicator of the market. I'd say it's the latter, which is what would have Enzo in a fit.

I see what you're saying about the graph merely representing the division of overall auctions, compared to the division of auxctions within a market segment, but I bet it's about the same. Auctions for any property apart from unique ones or repo's, are, in my opinion, a signifier of a booming market. When auctions flail, we'll go back to good old private treaty.

[Solomon]

Plonk, on 01 June 2010 - 07:27 AM, said:

When auctions fail, we'll go back to good old private treaty.

I personally prefer private negotiations to public auction.
It is a matter of crowd mentality. Auctions deliberately work on the premise of human competitiveness to drive a price beyond its true value. "If I can't have it, then I'm going to make sure that the other person pays more for it."
When the disclosure of the actual price is un-disclosed there is less trying to out do one another, and simply drive up the price for price sake.

Whenever I deal with companies and they say they will match any other price, I say simply give me your best price now, or miss out on the deal. Sometimes I have reason to go back to them, and they will ask, why I didn't go back to them, so that they could have given me a better deal. Well you had your chance to give me the very best price.
Anything else is an attempt to rip me off.
But no we have to have this pyscho-babble of me playing one company against another, so that I save a few quid.

I would sincerely like to know how much the auction model contributed to the rapid increase in price.
I hope that someone conducts some research into the matter in a scientific analysis of the dynamics of auctions.

Further to that, I would also like to know was the actual communicating of those auctions on mediums such as television which brought to some people's minds, what they needed to pay in order to own a home.
Did it manipulate and influence our understanding of what a particular home was worth?

If those factors had not been present would the prices have sky rocketed in the manner in which they did.

In my 50 years in this country I have never seen auctions used so widely as a marketing ploy for homes as I have in the past 10 - 15 years. (the period of the boom)
Most home sales were private negotiations, in which you were actually dealing with the owners, and in some cases you actually got to know your vendors very well, as you worked out the arrangements for the sale. In my brother's cases they actually bought their homes off their in-laws, and in small country towns, you did the negotiation at the local pub.

As is now typical in a large proportion of our society the less social relationship the better. Every transaction seems to be through 3rd party or middle men, and the producer and the consumer get scammed. Loans, supermarkets, etc.

It will be hard to go back to one on one negotiation, but it might just be more satisfying somehow. And maybe, just maybe, we will get back to fair value for goods. AHH! I'm an idealist, and naive.

[Plonk]

Keep the faith, Solomon- I think those kind of transactions can still occur with real estate. I recall saying on GHPC that I would prefer to buy a property through an agent instead of private sale (No Asians).



I think though, that I'd love an old-fashioned negotiation with someone who owned the home, and knew about it, and could sell it to me, because I'd like to buy it. We may both be romantics, Solomon.

[tor]

Plonk, on 03 June 2010 - 07:16 AM, said:

Keep the faith, Solomon- I think those kind of transactions can still occur with real estate. I recall saying on GHPC that I would prefer to buy a property through an agent instead of private sale (No Asians).

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=0YM9Ereg2Zo

I think though, that I'd love an old-fashioned negotiation with someone who owned the home, and knew about it, and could sell it to me, because I'd like to buy it. We may both be romantics, Solomon.

Romance be damned, you turn up at an auction and you are another face in a crowd of buyers. Way to put yourself in a negotiating position. You do private treaty and they mention other people you can walk, pest inspection etc finds issues, you can walk. A couple of weeks of negotiating and you know just how desperate the other guy is and can ensure you are not shafted (even if you don't shaft the other guy it is nice to be shafted). Get a dumb arse that tells you he has to close by a certain date and you can knock a decent percentage off the price right there and then.

Never go into a competition where you have to compete just to be allowed to compete; makes you look desperate which means you will probably get shafted.

I was surprised when buying a house at how stupid RE agents are and how desperate the guy selling was. They played all their cards about 10 minutes after I said I was interested.

I try to avoid that scenario in any situation in my life. Admittedly in some areas I have failed - being a fat bastard doesn't really give me any negotiating power in the bedroom anymore hehehe.

[Solomon]

tor, on 03 June 2010 - 08:39 AM, said:

Romance be damned, you turn up at an auction and you are another face in a crowd of buyers. Way to put yourself in a negotiating position. You do private treaty and they mention other people you can walk, pest inspection etc finds issues, you can walk. A couple of weeks of negotiating and you know just how desperate the other guy is and can ensure you are not shafted (even if you don't shaft the other guy it is nice to be shafted). Get a dumb arse that tells you he has to close by a certain date and you can knock a decent percentage off the price right there and then.

Never go into a competition where you have to compete just to be allowed to compete; makes you look desperate which means you will probably get shafted.

I was surprised when buying a house at how stupid RE agents are and how desperate the guy selling was. They played all their cards about 10 minutes after I said I was interested.

I try to avoid that scenario in any situation in my life. Admittedly in some areas I have failed - being a fat bastard doesn't really give me any negotiating power in the bedroom anymore hehehe.

As always you make some good points tor.
They are definitely worth thinking about
I wasn't deliberately trying to be "romantic", as plonk puts it, but rather to restore something of the personal relationship into negotiations.
We seem to use 3rd parties so often today for all our transactions with other human beings.
I guess I'm just not cut out for this hard-nosed business acumen that seems to be so common-place nowadays
Maybe, I'm just past my prime.

[Turkey]

tor, on 03 June 2010 - 08:39 AM, said:

I was surprised when buying a house at how stupid RE agents are and how desperate the guy selling was. They played all their cards about 10 minutes after I said I was interested.

I've been able to observer RE agents close up because unfortunately there is an agency lurking in the family. You might have encountered stupid agents (70-80% are in my experience, I mean how does their old career of hairdressing / teacher / housewife prepare them for negotiating large financial transactions?), but you might also have encountered the super-sneaky "gun" agent.

People make the mistake that good RE agents are the type that can sell sand to eskimos or ice to arabs. That's wrong, the real key is to be able to knock down the seller. Don't ever, ever think the RE agent is working for you (if you're selling). The clever agent realises that selling 10 houses quickly for a lower price is much better and easier than selling 5 houses for "top dollar".

The real skill in being an agent is to be able to convince the seller to a) list for a reasonable price and secondly to be negotiable. If you have a flexible seller you have yourself a sale. If you have a rigid seller then it's hard work. Means lots of OFI's, adverts, phone calls ... all that icky work type stuff. If the gun agent has the misfortune of a stubborn seller on his/her books it results in a generous donation to the rookie:

Gun: "I have to play golf this afternoon and I am supposed to organise a OFI for this client. I'm so busy at the moment, here, have this valuable client as a present from me to get you started".
Rookie: Gee thanks, o generouse and wise gun.
Gun: Ha ha, sucker ... *goes and sells another undervalued property*

You never know who could be your buyer, there are potentially 100's or 1000's of people who could be your buyer. Investing time in each and every possible buyer is very time-consuming and smells bad, like work to the clever agent. Much easier to concentrate all your efforts on the one person who really counts and you know will be involved in any sale, the seller.

This has taken phuckin forever to type because I finished all the beer 2 bight.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Turkey, on 03 June 2010 - 02:51 PM, said:

I mean how does their old career of hairdressing / teacher / housewife prepare them for negotiating large financial transactions?

Isn't it special? The quality of knowledge regarding macro and micro economics?

For most of these c**ts M3 is a car.

Quote

This has taken phuckin forever to type because I finished all the beer 2 bight.

Good on you and thanks for sharing.

[staringclown]

Hmm. There were supposed to be ~900 auctions this weekend. Wonder what happened to the other 92? From now on I'm going
to try and copy Enzos words so we can compare the figures from week to week. Not that I don't trust him.

Quote

Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview

Week ending Saturday June 5th 2010

The clearance rate from today’s 808 reported auctions was 70 per
cent, a good result given Melbourne has never seen as many auctions
held on a winter weekend.

From an overall perspective the residential market is more in
balance than it was earlier this year and that means that buyers are
facing the best conditions in over a year. This is likely to continue
with over 1000 auctions the weekend after Queens Birthday.

There were 808 auctions reported today of which 594 sold and 244 were
passed in, 150 of those on a vendors bid.

This weekend last year saw 166 auctions and a clearance rate of 81
per cent.

Next weekend there are around 300 auctions scheduled.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 808
Last weekend: 942
This time last year: 164

S Sold at Auction: 467
SB Sold before Auction: 95
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 244
Passed in on vendor's bid: 150

Clearance rate: 70%

Postponed: 3
Withdrawn: 2
Auctions with no result: 83

PS Private Sales: 645

Total Volume (Auctions): $407.73mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $295.64mil

Apologies to Douglas Adams

Infinite Improbability Drive

Quote

"Please do not be alarmed," it said, "by anything you see or hear around you…We are now cruising at a level of two to the power of two hundred and seventy-six thousand to one against and falling, and we will be restoring normality just as soon as we are sure what is normal anyway. Thank you…"

Edit:URL : http://www.reiv.com....ide.asp?ID=142. Edit won't let me add a link and I can't be shagged hand editing link codes. Don't even get smilies. :;-):

Edit2: Anyone know what an "Auction with no result" is? Is it included in the calculations?

This post has been edited by staringclown: 05 June 2010 - 09:43 AM

[booboo]

APM clearance rates for Sydney for 5th June rose to 70%, whereas APM reported that Melbourne fell to 67%.

[hobo-jo]

Got trend?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Nice graph.

http://www.simplesus...089

[tom]

Great work hobo, even my wife was taken aback by that, I dont often show her these things as she gets easily bored and last year due to information overload she just said fine we wont buy a house but I dont want to see anymore newspaper articles. Its good to have people to share my bearish sentiment with who care.

Anyway she was just asking me after seeing it why everyone is saying now is a good time to buy if the auction figures are falling like that. lol. I just said now is always a good time to buy for some people.

[ponder]

hobo-jo, on 07 June 2010 - 12:06 PM, said:

Got trend?

Nice work, hobo-jo. You don't by any chance have figures going back further? Would be interesting to see the trend over the past 12-18 months. I'm sure they're online, but I figured you might have them on-hand. That, and I'm a lazy bastard.

[hobo-jo]

ponder, on 07 June 2010 - 10:05 PM, said:

Nice work, hobo-jo. You don't by any chance have figures going back further? Would be interesting to see the trend over the past 12-18 months. I'm sure they're online, but I figured you might have them on-hand. That, and I'm a lazy bastard.

I was sourcing the stats from here: http://scottbanks.co...uction-results/
They only go back to the start of 2010 as did this site: http://www.australia...results/page/5/

If you can find me an easy to reference source for the data I can update, but have been unsuccessful finding them so far...

[Maria Santa B.A.]

booboo, on 07 June 2010 - 03:51 AM, said:

APM clearance rates for Sydney for 5th June rose to 70%, whereas APM reported that Melbourne fell to 67%.

Not much talk in msm of Sydney this week, Marika Dobbin seems to be out to lunch or has been warned off.

These APM numbers are bogus as usual. They allege 343 auctions and 70% clearance. Infochoice says 547 auctions and 65% clearance.

http://www.infochoic.../2/1,22,24,3,37

[hobo-jo]

Maria Santa B.A., on 09 June 2010 - 01:17 AM, said:

These APM numbers are bogus as usual. They allege 343 auctions and 70% clearance. Infochoice says 547 auctions and 65% clearance.
http://www.infochoic...ng-up/38265/2/1,22,24,3,37

The funny thing is, check the Infochoice source, even more confusing

[Maria Santa B.A.]

hobo-jo, on 09 June 2010 - 11:51 AM, said:

The funny thing is, check the Infochoice source, even more confusing

Oh yes, that will be the 'secret' APM file that gets sent around to industry professionals. Its always 5% lower than the bogus one posted in Domain. But even the lower one might be a fabrication.

[staringclown]

Thanks for the reminder Maria-Santa.


Ok, so 249 auctions down from the "around 300" prediction last week (see above post)

"249 results reported" 192 sold (128 (sold at auction) + 59 (sold before auction) + 5 (sold after auction). Passed in 57 == total 249.

Auctions with no result: 82 (all not reported - answered my own question from last week I think.)

Worst case scenario none of these sold and were excluded from the calculations. Best case all sold.

Not sold: 59 + 82 = 141

sold 192

total auctions 331 (249 + 82)

Clearance rate: worst case: 192/331 * 100% = 57.4%

All sold: 192+ 82

Clearance rate: best case: 274/331 * 100% = 82.7%

Real clearance rate == 77% +- 12.65%

Quote

Weekly Auction & Sales Results, Market Overview

Saturday June 12th 2010

The clearance rate improved this weekend due to the lower number of homes offered for auction over the long weekend.

There were 249 results reported today of which 192 sold and 57 were passed in, 29 of those on a vendors bid. The clearance rate was 77 per cent.

This weekend last year, which was not a long weekend, saw 527 auctions and a clearance rate of 85 per cent.

Next weekend will feature a record number of auctions for June and winter with around 1000 homes to be auctioned.

Enzo Raimondo
CEO REIV



TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 249
Last weekend: 873
This time last year: 506

S Sold at Auction: 128
SB Sold before Auction: 59
SA Sold after Auction: 5

Passed in: 57
Passed in on vendor's bid: 29

Clearance rate: 77%

TOTAL AUCTIONS
This week: 249
Last Weekend: 873
This time last year: 506

Postponed: 1
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 82



PS Private Sales: 525

Total Volume (Auctions): $121.69mil
Total Volume (Private Sales): $241.95mil

Total Auctions Houses: 159
Clearance Rate: 79%
Median Price: $623,500
Total Value: $87,135,418

Total Auctions Flats/Apartments: 82
Clearance Rate: 74%
Median Price: $475,000
Total Value: $32,849,200

Total Auctions Vacant Land: 8
Clearance Rate: 62%
Median Price: $401,000
Total Value: $1,707,000

[zaph]

http://www.rs.reales...n/rsearch?a=ars

rp data reporting melb clearance of 67% w/e june 6