[Bernard L. Madoff]

Can we get a sticky on this mods?

Considering the demise of the USD, the rise of the AUD and all the glory with the JPY, GBP, EUR, NZD and CHF that ensues is serious stuff.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

I put a ridiculous SELL LIMIT at 0.94 yesterday on the AUD. It hit last night and is now 0.93. Love it. Looking for 0.925. Then 0.95.

Can we get boz and sygzy over?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Thanks for the pin.

Its all about the FX vs Gold vs Bonds vs Equities. Interesting times ahead.

[cobran20]

The $US index is failing to hold ... yet again. Every time it looks like a rally is about to start, it fails. This is what seems to be powering the stock markets, commodities and largely gold as well, though The Precious is in a bull market irrespective.

PS: This forum only allows 300Kb attachments. Can it be increased to something like 2mb like GHPC?

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[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 17 November 2009 - 08:47 AM, said:

The $US index is failing to hold ... yet again. Every time it looks like a rally is about to start, it fails. This is what seems to be powering the stock markets, commodities and largely gold as well, though The Precious is in a bull market irrespective.

PS: This forum only allows 300Kb attachments. Can it be increased to something like 2mb like GHPC?

What's happened Cobran? I thought you a sign in those chicken entrails?

While the Fed keeps that ridiculous QE going, the USD will remain on the steady course......down.

Most of the rise last year was due to the swaps it did with other CB's. The RBA has learned a lesson now, never swap with an entity that has 12x as much money in treasuries as in currency.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Tinpusher, on 17 November 2009 - 08:28 AM, said:

I put a ridiculous SELL LIMIT at 0.94 yesterday on the AUD. It hit last night and is now 0.93. Love it. Looking for 0.925. Then 0.95.

That 1.5c drop took 17 hours.

Currently 0.9278 off its low of 0.9249 50mins ago. Piss weak move IMO hence my shallow profit target (now I've written that it will plummet to 0.50c).

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The $US index is failing to hold ... yet again. Every time it looks like a rally is about to start, it fails. This is what seems to be powering the stock markets

Yup.

Bernanke is doing SFA about it. In fact I think he's riding it.

Hey mods can we up the attachment limit to post real charts?

[cobran20]

wulfgar, on 17 November 2009 - 09:36 AM, said:

What's happened Cobran? I thought you a sign in those chicken entrails?

While the Fed keeps that ridiculous QE going, the USD will remain on the steady course......down.

Most of the rise last year was due to the swaps it did with other CB's. The RBA has learned a lesson now, never swap with an entity that has 12x as much money in treasuries as in currency.

It looks like the market is going to take Ben to task and keep dumping the $US until he is forced to defend it. I can't see the $US going straight to zero. It would not surprise me if Ben is forced to raise interest rates sometime in 2010 to defend the $US. A rally will occur. Just have to wait until a bottom holds.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

cobran20, on 17 November 2009 - 08:45 PM, said:

It looks like the market is going to take Ben to task and keep dumping the $US until he is forced to defend it. I can't see the $US going straight to zero. It would not surprise me if Ben is forced to raise interest rates sometime in 2010 to defend the $US. A rally will occur. Just have to wait until a bottom holds.

If the DX gets to 50 what will be the Dow? 20,000?

There is some pain on the way. It will be ugly.

I still can't get my head around whether the equity bubble feeding the USD meltdown (QE money going into 'risky' assets such as equities and AUD etc) OR, The dumping of the USD feeding the equity bubble. Which is cause, which is effect or is it some sort of symbiotic feed back loop?

[wulfgar]

The problem is the world market extremely unstable, so I wouldn't think DOW 20,000 is on the cards.

I didn't know Johnathan Harris was on the short list for FED governor? Unfortunately he died in 2002 and they had to settle for Bernanke, an inferior comedian.

Quote

It looks like the market is going to take Ben to task and keep dumping the $US until he is forced to defend it. I can't see the $US going straight to zero. It would not surprise me if Ben is forced to raise interest rates sometime in 2010 to defend the $US. A rally will occur. Just have to wait until a bottom holds.

It won't go to zero, eventually we'll see a stand off where the US claims the USD is worth something more and market puts a low bid on it. America will introduce exchange controls to keep the nominal value up, but the world won't want it. Basically the USD won't lose nominal market price so much as become illiquid. But this is still 3 to 4 years away.

QE doesn't really work with a market that loses more money than it makes.

[pinozi]

There is divergence on the USD index and it looks like a bounce is a possibility. I think this 75 level holds and we get to 79/80 by years end

[Bernard L. Madoff]

There are some very good range/swing trades at the mo as the market meanders in defined channels.

I'd like to hold this EURUSD short (green dotted on 1HR chart) as long as possible just in case it is the DX break up. Maybe exit half my position at the red dotted target and hold the other half with a sliding wide stop.

Also, tonight German GDP, US GDP, Case-Shiller home prices AND Crude inventories. Could be a volatile evening/night.

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[Bernard L. Madoff]

pinozi, on 20 November 2009 - 08:24 AM, said:

There is divergence on the USD index and it looks like a bounce is a possibility. I think this 75 level holds and we get to 79/80 by years end

This might interest the DX intraday watchers...

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[cobran20]

Tinpusher, on 24 November 2009 - 06:36 AM, said:

This might interest the DX intraday watchers...

Every time it attempts to rise, it gets hit over the head. There must be some big interests wanting to keep the $US dropping, presumably because of the $US carry trade and the boom to stock & commodity markets.

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[Bernard L. Madoff]

An observation:

http://jessescrossro...market-and.html

[Bernard L. Madoff]

cobran20, on 24 November 2009 - 07:53 AM, said:

Every time it attempts to rise, it gets hit over the head. There must be some big interests wanting to keep the $US dropping, presumably because of the $US carry trade and the boom to stock & commodity markets.

There must be some big $ vested interests.

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•  DX$25Nov.JPG (265.32K)
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[cobran20]

That overnight action settles it. The dog has crashed to new lows!

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[Bernard L. Madoff]

cobran20, on 26 November 2009 - 08:25 AM, said:

That overnight action settles it. The dog has crashed to new lows!

70 next?

http://www.zerohedge...icipates-dxy-70

[cobran20]

Tinpusher, on 26 November 2009 - 09:05 AM, said:

70 next?

http://www.zerohedge...icipates-dxy-70

Once it breaks below 74, it is in unchartered waters. 70 is as good as any guess.

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[firehawk]

cobran20, on 26 November 2009 - 09:13 AM, said:

Once it breaks below 74, it is in unchartered waters. 70 is as good as any guess.

There is no real solid technical support anywhere below 70. That's the edge of the abyss or the edge of the cliff where Wile E Coyote runs out of momentum before gravity takes over.

Me, I'm all for watching the once in a lifetime spectacle of the world reserve currency crashing.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Intraday DX