[zaph]

why is the oz down? is it just those muslim yanks eating turkey?

i have a grip on fx but don't understand why our currency has been hit.

[tor]

zaph, on 28 November 2009 - 01:57 AM, said:

why is the oz down? is it just those muslim yanks eating turkey?

i have a grip on fx but don't understand why our currency has been hit.

Bank exposure to the Dubai loans? From memory there is potentially a bit but everyone is pointing out how they are not actually involved in dubai, they are abu dhabi or whatever.

So I guess just paranoia from the market people, who ever heard of a company exec bending the truth?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

zaph, on 28 November 2009 - 01:57 AM, said:

why is the oz down? is it just those muslim yanks eating turkey?

i have a grip on fx but don't understand why our currency has been hit.

Flight to safety. The AUD is regarded as a risk trade and at any sign of trouble its dumped.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

The USD is toast. Zirp forever. Hello Japan.

http://www.theaustra...x-1225806460659

Quote

At the same time, pending legislation in the House could leave Mr Bernanke running a less independent institution. The House Financial Services Committee has passed a measure that would subject the Fed's interest-rate decisions to scrutiny by the Government Accountability Office, an investigative arm of Congress. Mr Bernanke and others at the Fed fear that with Congress looking over their shoulders, any decision they make about interest rates would be subjected to the winds of politics - making it harder to control inflation or financial bubbles.

Any changes would be months off at best, and the Fed might be successful in fending them off. In the meantime, officials are moving ahead to come up with plans to avoid another crisis.

Fed officials used to think there was little they could or should do to prevent bubbles from inflating. For one thing, identifying bubbles with any certainty was deemed to be too difficult. And even if they could be accurately pinpointed, pricking them might do more harm than good. Raising interest rates to stop a bubble, for instance, could slow growth in other parts of the economy that were otherwise healthy.

The Fed's main strategy instead was to mop up after a bubble burst with lower interest rates to cushion the blow to the economy and restart growth. That strategy was a key conclusion of Mr Bernanke's writings on the subject of bubbles when he was a Princeton professor, and again when he first came to the Fed as a governor in 2002. It was an approach embraced by his predecessor Alan Greenspan.

Now, Fed officials admit the stance didn't work. They're groping for alternatives. Of the two methods to prevent bubbles - using regulations to protect the financial system from excess and changing monetary policy by raising interest rates - Mr Bernanke falls on the side of greater regulation, an idea he has advocated in the past.

Quote

"The best approach here if at all possible is to use supervisory and regulatory methods to restrain undue risk-taking and to make sure the system is resilient in case an asset price bubble bursts in the future," Mr Bernanke said in answer to a question after a speech in New York last month.

Playing the interest-rate card, in contrast, is considered by many to be a more aggressive and risky move. On Tuesday, Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser said interest rates were "a very blunt instrument" to thwart a possible bubble. He said raising rates could "affect all other asset prices at the same time."

[cobran20]

Tinpusher, on 03 December 2009 - 06:09 AM, said:

The USD is toast. Zirp forever. Hello Japan.

http://www.theaustra...x-1225806460659

Perhaps the Government Accountability Office might stop Ben from devaluing the $US and force US interest rates to rise?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

The magic number (100% retracement) is 71.380. If it doesn't hold, there is no known support below....

[Mod: Edit - you gotta stop hotlinking images from commonsensecapital.com. Removed the image]

[tom]

US Dollar Desertion:

Quote

Billionaire US investor Jim Rogers is advising investors to desert the greenback and put their money into commodities.

The influential former partner of financier George Soros says the US dollar is a flawed currency that has no future.

And he is warning that inflation will rise around the world as governments sell bonds and print money in the hope of paying off their budget deficits.

Quote

Now he is saying that if you are a bond manager you should get another job, and he is advising investors to put their money into real assets in a time of rising inflation.

"If the world economy gets better, commodities will be a very good place to be, if not the best place, because the shortages continue to get worse," he observed.

"If the world economy does not get better, commodities are still going to be a great place to be because governments have printed so much money and are continuing to print so much money."

For the rest http://www.abc.net.a.../03/2761062.htm

[Bernard L. Madoff]

AUD is off (actually USD is down). Now 0.9315 as the European session kicks off.

Resistance on 16th Nov is 0.9406.

Go to 99, go to 99, go to 99 (works for Property Spruikers!)

[tom]

Tinpusher, on 03 December 2009 - 07:36 AM, said:

AUD is off (actually USD is down). Now 0.9315 as the European session kicks off.

Resistance on 16th Nov is 0.9406.

Go to 99, go to 99, go to 99 (works for Property Spruikers!)

You must have steely reserve, to have held your position during this recent Dubai incident.

I was selling to my wife us setting up a HSBC saver earlier this week and getting the big 0.5% interest on a US deposit account. Lucky I have been busy with work. Not to busy for Simple Sus though.

[Mr Medved]

Any comments on this?

Looking at the price charts, the Australian dollar MACD on the daily chart is near a buy signal. Not a sell signal. The Canadian dollar monthly chart shows the mighty TRIX 15,9 series (the "KingDaddy") on a gargantuan buy signal !

http://www.commodity...tool-13147.html

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Mr Medved, on 04 December 2009 - 05:40 AM, said:

Any comments on this?

Looking at the price charts, the Australian dollar MACD on the daily chart is near a buy signal. Not a sell signal.

It is actually. Definitely not overbought. See chart I downloaded a few mins ago.

tom, on 03 December 2009 - 08:06 AM, said:

You must have steely reserve, to have held your position during this recent Dubai incident.

I was selling to my wife us setting up a HSBC saver earlier this week and getting the big 0.5% interest on a US deposit account. Lucky I have been busy with work. Not to busy for Simple Sus though.

It hit a trailing stop on the way down and I made a few bob but lots of gains erased. You can see on the chart where I got back in.

Attached File(s)

•  audusd4decdailyr.JPG (271.2K)
  Number of downloads: 12

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 24 November 2009 - 07:53 AM, said:

Every time it attempts to rise, it gets hit over the head. There must be some big interests wanting to keep the $US dropping, presumably because of the $US carry trade and the boom to stock & commodity markets.

Here we go again - will the rise hold this time? Not surprisingly, the $A looks like it wants to correct after a sharp rise.

Attached File(s)

•  2.jpg (262.31K)
  Number of downloads: 10
•  4.jpg (277.29K)
  Number of downloads: 13

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Ireland and Greece to leave the Euro?

http://www.bloomberg...IOdqSGOtE&pos=5

Quote

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Greece and Ireland are among countries in an “intolerable” economic situation, which may lead to bailouts or even an exit from the euro area by the end of next year, according to Standard Bank Plc. The absence of a mechanism to permit so-called fiscal transfers within the 16-nation region may undermine the exchange-rate system, said Steve Barrow, head of Group of 10 foreign-exchange strategy at the bank in London. Concern some nations will need to be rescued may drive the premium investors demand to hold 10-year Greek debt instead of benchmark German bunds to 400 basis points next year, from 214 basis points today, he said. The Irish premium may also jump, he said.

“Countries like Ireland and Greece may not be able to grow out of the current crisis,” Barrow said in a telephone interview today. “With interest-rate cuts, exchange-rate depreciation and significant fiscal support all off limits for these countries, bailouts or even pullouts from EMU may happen next year.”

The Irish Finance Ministry called the suggestion it might leave the euro area “uninformed comment,” and Greece said there was no chance it would leave.

The widening difference in yield, or spread, between Greek and Irish bonds and German securities may accelerate, increasing the debt burden for these countries, he wrote in a report today. The Irish-German 10-year spread may rise to 300 basis points next year, from about 170 basis points, he said. The spread averaged about 43 basis points in the past five years, with the Greek-German average at 67 basis points in the period.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

More on Greece and the Euro...

http://www.zerohedge...o-all-connected

[Aaron]

Tinpusher, on 03 December 2009 - 06:09 AM, said:

The USD is toast. Zirp forever. Hello Japan.

http://www.theaustra...x-1225806460659

that's a very interesting piece.

when the Fed was created it was mandated that it was "not accountable to congress".

now it is.

is that socialism at play? i don't understand. i want to look into this more.

cheers for the post.

[savagegoose]

fed interest rates in USA to stay flat at almost zero, so gold and aussy dollar to go up ? thats my guess, i spose its too late for me to make any money on it?i have to buy before the news is out ill have to get a job at goldman sachs if i wanna do that

[Mr Medved]

Ah, feck! I assume this means we may be on a long slide down... resistance broken? USD rally?

AUD/USD 0.8843 0.8848

[sydney3000]

next stop $0.73

[Mr Medved]

http://www.dailyfx.c..._US_Dollar.html

[Mr Medved]

http://www.businessi...rvalued-2009-12