[cobran20]

Mr Medved, on 06 January 2010 - 01:40 AM, said:

http://www.businessi...rvalued-2009-12

wulfgar's picture is in the gold ad on the right-hand side!

[Bernard L. Madoff]

cobran20, on 06 January 2010 - 02:29 AM, said:

wulfgar's picture is in the gold ad on the right-hand side!

He is famous!

From the link...

Quote

Even though their valuation is based on rather opaque econometric models likely subject to substantial error, these are at least guidelines:

I'm happy to read about he determine's fair value but he doesn't explain other than...

Quote

Morgan Stanley's Spyros Andreopoulos: BRL remains heavily overvalued against the USD: even if our models are somewhat slow to incorporate the improved fundamental outlook for the currency stemming from the recent oil finds and the China pull, an overvaluation of 34% against the USD suggests that BRL looks stretched at current levels. (The China pull argument may also apply to AUD.)

Well duhhh! The China pop could take a year or five.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Holy cheeseburger Batman....

The USD just went through the floor against all crosses. 0.7 - 1% decline in minutes.

Tin went long on the EUR and AUD this morning on techs as part of a range trading strategy thats been lucrative to perfection. Is it going to stop at R or is this the golden eagle?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Here it is. Unemployment. Christmas hiring???

They are screwed.

http://www.marketwat...t-10-2010-01-08

[Bernard L. Madoff]

BTW read the comments (550 at last count) below the marketwatch link above.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Profit targets hit at 0.930 (AUD) and 1.450 (EUR)

AUD Gapped up this morning!!

Am looking for a tech pullback to fill the gap and take a breather. 0.91 ish before up we go (well down the USD goes) again.

6 cents (AUD) in 12 trading days is great for Longs but too quick.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Any FX traders here DO or DO NOT trade Fridays?

Any crap trades I get caught in are generally on a Friday where the market moves out of kilter with the techs.

[boz]

Tinpusher, on 18 January 2010 - 02:38 AM, said:

Any FX traders here DO or DO NOT trade Fridays?

Any crap trades I get caught in are generally on a Friday where the market moves out of kilter with the techs.

i trade on fridays but it might be better to have a longer timeframe then the rest of the week.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Hey boz. Thanks. Good to see you loitering...welcome.

[AndersB]

http://www.telegraph...r-collapse.html

Quote

Willem Buiter warns of massive dollar collapse
Americans must prepare themselves for a massive collapse in the dollar as investors around the world dump their US assets, a former Bank of England policymaker has warned.

By Edmund Conway, Economics Editor
Published: 5:34PM GMT 05 Jan 2009

The long-held assumption that US assets - particularly government bonds - are a safe haven will soon be overturned as investors lose their patience with the world's biggest economy, according to Willem Buiter.

Professor Buiter, a former Monetary Policy Committee member who is now at the London School of Economics, said this increasing disenchantment would result in an exodus of foreign cash from the US.
<snip>
Writing on his blog, Prof Buiter said: "There will, before long (my best guess is between two and five years from now) be a global dumping of US dollar assets, including US government assets. Old habits die hard. The US dollar and US Treasury bills and bonds are still viewed as a safe haven by many. But learning takes place."
...

[boz]

AndersB, on 18 January 2010 - 08:04 AM, said:

http://www.telegraph...r-collapse.html

I don't give much credit to those US$ doom scenario, what currency will investor buy when they drop the US$? euro? yen, GBP or AU$? but are these much better and safer then the US$? certainly not. the only way I can see a US$ collapse is against gold or other commodity or even against goods and phisical assets (inflation and total FIAT collapse like in Wulfgar vision...).
I certainly see a strong or stable US$ in case of deflation, but I don't know what will happen and I still avoid to trade the US$ at the moment

[AndersB]

boz, on 18 January 2010 - 08:32 AM, said:

I don't give much credit to those US$ doom scenario, what currency will investor buy when they drop the US$? euro? yen, GBP or AU$? but are these much better and safer then the US$? certainly not. the only way I can see a US$ collapse is against gold or other commodity or even against goods and phisical assets (inflation and total FIAT collapse like in Wulfgar vision...).
I certainly see a strong or stable US$ in case of deflation, but I don't know what will happen and I still avoid to trade the US$ at the moment

Maybe CNY once they decouple from the US$?

Even if a collapse is unlikely, I can't see how the US can meet their obligations without further debt monetisation. I think institutions will be reluctant to buy or hold US$ denominated instruments when there is a strong risk of long term currency decline.

We can see from the GFC that governments and reserve banks will go to extraordinary lengths to curtail and contain financial shocks. It therefore seems unlikely that there will be "sudden collapses" in the future (although the roller coaster ride of the AU$ in the last two years were amazing to watch).

A likely scenario, in my opinion, is that there will be a long period of economic stagnation in the US (and possibly Europe) in nominal terms, with a possible slow deterioration in real terms per capita.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Good to see you back Anders.

[AndersB]

Tinpusher, on 18 January 2010 - 09:30 AM, said:

Good to see you back Anders.

Thank you Tinpusher (and Staringclown)! It's good to be back.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

boz, on 18 January 2010 - 08:32 AM, said:

I don't give much credit to those US$ doom scenario, what currency will investor buy when they drop the US$? euro? yen, GBP or AU$? but are these much better and safer then the US$? certainly not. the only way I can see a US$ collapse is against gold or other commodity or even against goods and phisical assets (inflation and total FIAT collapse like in Wulfgar vision...).
I certainly see a strong or stable US$ in case of deflation, but I don't know what will happen and I still avoid to trade the US$ at the moment

EUR and AUD taking a bath this morning againt USD. -0.01 (whole cent) for both in 2 hours.

EUR now 10c off its 26 Nov highs. Greece weighing heavily...

http://www.bloomberg...id=aTlPpu2CgJsg

[AndersB]

Tinpusher, on 20 January 2010 - 02:20 AM, said:

EUR and AUD taking a bath this morning againt USD. -0.01 (whole cent) for both in 2 hours.

EUR now 10c off its 26 Nov highs. Greece weighing heavily...

http://www.bloomberg...id=aTlPpu2CgJsg

So, how much is the AU$ linked to the fortunes of the EUR?

There seem to be concerns about the Euro membership viability of the PIGS nations - Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain:
http://www.thisismon...n_page_id=53611

Quote

...
It's an acronym for a group of four countries. Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. They've got one thing in common - they're all in deep economic trouble. And they're all in the eurozone.



These are the four countries reckoned to be suffering most grievously from having to stick with the euro - and with the European Central Bank's interest rate policy.



To give you flavour, it seems that Ireland's economy could contract 4% this year.


...

[boz]

AndersB, on 18 January 2010 - 09:19 AM, said:

Maybe CNY once they decouple from the US$?

Even if a collapse is unlikely, I can't see how the US can meet their obligations without further debt monetisation. I think institutions will be reluctant to buy or hold US$ denominated instruments when there is a strong risk of long term currency decline.

We can see from the GFC that governments and reserve banks will go to extraordinary lengths to curtail and contain financial shocks. It therefore seems unlikely that there will be "sudden collapses" in the future (although the roller coaster ride of the AU$ in the last two years were amazing to watch).

A likely scenario, in my opinion, is that there will be a long period of economic stagnation in the US (and possibly Europe) in nominal terms, with a possible slow deterioration in real terms per capita.

I think it will be quite a while before the USA will have to worrie about buyers af their debt, japan is in a worse situation with a much higher public debt of around 200% of gdp a lower credit rating and because of deflation and its citizen not spending they have no problem to find gov debt buyer, USA will face the same thing with their citizen saving sinking into buying US gov debt in a Japan style circle. I'll agree in a long period of stagnation or lower growth/high unemployment, the end of trouble would be with a high enough productivity levels or some tech breakthrough like cheap energy source.
about the value of the euro, i think europe is very happy to hold it below 1.5 US$ and get a bit of consumer inflation that is very low at present (either PPI and CPI are extraordinalry low in euroland)

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Tinpusher, on 11 January 2010 - 04:02 AM, said:

Profit targets hit at 0.930 (AUD) and 1.450 (EUR)

AUD Gapped up this morning!!

Am looking for a tech pullback to fill the gap and take a breather. 0.91 ish before up we go (well down the USD goes) again.

6 cents (AUD) in 12 trading days is great for Longs but too quick.

Well the pullback to 0.907 was last night pre American open and we are now at 0.913.


Jesse has some long term dollar charts which I nicked.

http://jessescrossro...term-chart.html

Quote

Here is the longer term view of the US Dollar as measured by a basket of currencies.

Can it 'break out' here? Yes, certainly. Europe and Japan have their problems, and in the world of fiat, the grading of the paper is done 'on a curve.' The central banks and their mavens, who intervene at least indirectly in the currency markets with a certain obsessiveness these days of non-stop financial engineering, like to shove their manipulation around the plate as well. They don't 'tweak' the economy; they are the economy, at least at the margins.

Can it also fail and break down here? Yes, certainly. A stronger dollar will step hard on the weak US economic recovery. It will serve to lower import prices, but dampen exports, which is what they call 'bad news' when your domestic demand is slack.

There is the fundamental detail an enormous amount of dollars being held overseas that are not in circulation so to speak. At some point they, like the swallows of Capistrano, will return, and have trouble finding a place to comfortably roost.

But the market does not care about our theories, or even the charts. They are just rough estimates of a very complex reality. This is a disclosure that all pundits should place on their prognostications.

And in these days of thin markets and bank prop desks as a major source the income, the fundamentals are less relevant than the short term reality of the squid's need to feed.

Let's see what happens. Then we will know something actionable.

Attached File(s)

•  DXVeryLongTerm.png (112.21K)
  Number of downloads: 6

[boz]

Tinpusher, on 21 January 2010 - 04:20 AM, said:

Well the pullback to 0.907 was last night pre American open and we are now at 0.913.


Jesse has some long term dollar charts which I nicked.

http://jessescrossro...term-chart.html

these days I don't trade the AUD/USD but if I would trade them I'll short them at around 0.93 I think it is a better option then a long around 0.9 or even lower

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Quite the battle going at 0.91 on the Aussie, its also the 0.382 Fib No from its recent rally from 0.87 to 0.93.