[Mr Medved]

Thanks for posting.

cobran20, on 19 October 2011 - 09:38 PM, said:

Australia posted a trade surplus of $3.1-billion in August, - the second highest on record.
...
China ran a trade deficit with Australia worth $4.3-billion for the month.

In other words, if not for China then there would have been a $1.2B trade deficit rather than a $3.1B surplus in August. That's about the best example I've seen on Australia's reliance on exports to China. (assuming stats are correct)

[boz]

wulfgar, on 19 October 2011 - 10:51 PM, said:

That's pretty good. Keep that up and our net foreign debt will be payed in 30 years!

Not really, current account is still negative and been steady at -7.5 bil$ during the last year, so the positive trade data is not enough even to pay off interests on Australian debt. Also August was the month where commodity prices peaked (by the way in a couple of weeks September trade data will come out, the august one is pretty old). Still seems Australian are slowing the spending frenzy of last few years which is a good thing, but that is far from saying australian are good savers like government and media like to paint out...

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 05 October 2011 - 08:51 AM, said:

looks like it wants to go lower. So how about 89c?

As soon as I opened my mouth, it rallied instead!

But is the rally now finished?

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[boz]

boz, on 19 October 2011 - 11:58 PM, said:

Not really, current account is still negative and been steady at -7.5 bil$ during the last year, so the positive trade data is not enough even to pay off interests on Australian debt. Also August was the month where commodity prices peaked (by the way in a couple of weeks September trade data will come out, the august one is pretty old). Still seems Australian are slowing the spending frenzy of last few years which is a good thing, but that is far from saying australian are good savers like government and media like to paint out...

I post here the last trade price indexes from ABS
So import prices are down 1.7$ in last year, while export price are up 6.6% for last year, that match the positive trade data.
More tricky is to forecast what would happen in the future, it would seems logic to expect import prices would catch up with export to match long term trends. By the way, in last 2 quarters of 2008 import prices went up 16% and 10.8% in last quarter alone. But thanks to China it all reversed in 2009

[cobran20]

boz, on 21 October 2011 - 01:15 AM, said:

I post here the last trade price indexes from ABS
So import prices are down 1.7$ in last year, while export price are up 6.6% for last year, that match the positive trade data.
More tricky is to forecast what would happen in the future, it would seems logic to expect import prices would catch up with export to match long term trends. By the way, in last 2 quarters of 2008 import prices went up 16% and 10.8% in last quarter alone. But thanks to China it all reversed in 2009

A fall in the $A will create a repeat of 2008.

[boz]

cobran20, on 21 October 2011 - 02:32 AM, said:

A fall in the $A will create a repeat of 2008.

Or Better: a fall in commodity prices will create a fall in the A$ that will create a repeat of 2008

[wulfgar]

boz, on 21 October 2011 - 04:22 AM, said:

Or Better: a fall in commodity prices will create a fall in the A$ that will create a repeat of 2008

My rule of thumb is Aussies are still getting their petrol cheap. This can only last so long!

[cobran20]

wulfgar, on 21 October 2011 - 05:45 AM, said:

My rule of thumb is Aussies are still getting their petrol cheap. This can only last so long!

Oil in $US should fall next year. Hummers might be back in vogue!

[Mr Medved]

There's a lady who's sure all that glitters is gold
And she's buying the stairway to heaven.
When she gets there she knows, if the stores are all closed
With a word she can get what she came for.
Ooh, ooh, and she's buying the stairway to heaven.

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Some currency traders would have made a killing or have been killed overnight. The Australian dollar had one of its biggest overnight rallies, rising almost four cents to 107.4 US cents (source: ABC).

[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 21 October 2011 - 05:52 AM, said:

Oil in $US should fall next year. Hummers might be back in vogue!

You mean slip below $80 for any length of time? Actually my long term target for oil is $120.

Nope, I don't think the US will be getting it's oil any cheaper than that either.

You call me delusional?

[cobran20]

wulfgar, on 28 October 2011 - 04:39 AM, said:

You mean slip below $80 for any length of time? Actually my long term target for oil is $120.

Nope, I don't think the US will be getting it's oil any cheaper than that either.

You call me delusional?

that depends on what commodity prices and the $US do next year.

[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 28 October 2011 - 05:25 AM, said:

that depends on what commodity prices and the $US do next year.

Oil like gold is more than a normal commodity. Oil rose in price as the Great Depression progressed.

[boz]

cobran20, on 28 October 2011 - 05:25 AM, said:

that depends on what commodity prices and the $US do next year.

Yes, and that is up to BErnanke and US government, kind of feel like we are not in safe hands...
By the way this week was interesting to notice gold didn't follow the stock market in going up. Also quite interesting to notice the drop in oil price in the european market and rose in the US market. Yesterday alone the spread between europe for spot oil dropped 2%. Still the price in Europe is at 109$ while in US is 93.5. And very odd the spot price once again like is more expensive then the futures, by about 50 cents for 6 months and 1$ for 12 months.
I feel like the market is all over the place and some arbitrage and reallignment of prices is needed.

[Mr Medved]

boz, on 28 October 2011 - 09:04 PM, said:

By the way this week was interesting to notice gold didn't follow the stock market in going up. Also quite interesting to notice the drop in oil price in the european market and rose in the US market. Yesterday alone the spread between europe for spot oil dropped 2%. Still the price in Europe is at 109$ while in US is 93.5. And very odd the spot price once again like is more expensive then the futures, by about 50 cents for 6 months and 1$ for 12 months.
I feel like the market is all over the place and some arbitrage and reallignment of prices is needed.

News in Libya this week may explain some of that. Europe, in particular Italy, is dependent on Libyan oil whereas the US consumes very little.

[boz]

Mr Medved, on 28 October 2011 - 10:21 PM, said:

News in Libya this week may explain some of that. Europe, in particular Italy, is dependent on Libyan oil whereas the US consumes very little.

Yes, that is a good point, also I wonder how oil in Singapore is doing, I haven't got data for the singapore prices (does someone have the code name of oil futures in Singapore for the TWS platform?)

[boz]

Intervention from bank of japan to weaken the yen.
It manage to send it from 75.6 yen to 79.4.
It looks like they bought US$ as the AU$ lost against the US$ on intervention

[Mr Medved]

Mr Medved, on 27 October 2011 - 10:28 PM, said:

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Some currency traders would have made a killing or have been killed overnight. The Australian dollar had one of its biggest overnight rallies, rising almost four cents to 107.4 US cents (source: ABC).

Back to last week. Would one call that irrational exuberance?

[cobran20]

going down...

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[cobran20]

cobran20, on 02 November 2011 - 06:54 AM, said:

going down...

the bankrupt one keeps exerting pressure on the insolvent one!

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[dodgydamo]

Mr Medved, on 27 October 2011 - 10:28 PM, said:

Some currency traders would have made a killing or have been killed overnight. The Australian dollar had one of its biggest overnight rallies, rising almost four cents to 107.4 US cents (source: ABC).

I'm surprised there is no activity in the Forex thread given the AUD drop below parity this week and 9% fall in less than a month.
98.3 US cents as I type...