[Bernard L. Madoff]

Aussie vs Yen (carry trade target and source.

Weekly chart left; Daily right (200MA is yellow and right on it)

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•  audjpyjandaily2010.gif (15.2K)
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[goethe]

boz, on 31 January 2010 - 04:35 AM, said:

you get an answer from the fundamentals in their current account number (look at data from the other thread), as japan run a surplus for the last 30 years eventually those money come back into japan, this usually happen in trouble times where japanese investors see their overseas investment at risk

Yes good point. However this has been going on for nearly 12 months now. If anything, I would expect Japanese domestics to use the strong currency to fund overseas asset purchases (except Gold Coast property...), but maybe they are circling wagons instead.

[boz]

goethe, on 31 January 2010 - 08:33 AM, said:

Yes good point. However this has been going on for nearly 12 months now. If anything, I would expect Japanese domestics to use the strong currency to fund overseas asset purchases (except Gold Coast property...), but maybe they are circling wagons instead.

I don't have a great knowledge on japanese society but I don't think the JPY is that high as it has been hanging around 80 with the AU$ for very long time (it was 85 JPY for 1 aud in 1992), Japan also had inflation or cpi at zero for 20 years while australia was much higher then that.
Also the deflationary environment of Japan push people to save money and they don't have the culture of whatever they buy or invest in it will increase in price like it has been in australian society.
Finally a lot of money and saving end up in a black hole (deflation) in japan, the money it survive thew black hole mostly would end up in the forever increasing public debt and doesn't leave much for foreign investment. Also, the Japanese total debt (public+ private) is in a reducing pattern, In my opinion eventually the debt will get low enough to stop deflation and improve their economic situation.
I don't also see Japan at great risk just because I like to see the debt situation as a whole (private+public) and not just public like many economist and commentator point out. For example how many member of this forum know that Italian private debt+public debt is lower then Australia private+public when you compare it to gdp?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Could be some nice 80-150 pip runs in the GBPYEN this week Boz.

Mr Volatility is on the couch.

[boz]

Tinpusher, on 31 January 2010 - 11:55 AM, said:

Could be some nice 80-150 pip runs in the GBPYEN this week Boz.

Mr Volatility is on the couch.

today I finally sold my GBP/JPY shorts (around 143.55). On the gbp I only have it shorten against the euro (euro/gbp long at 0.868, just a amall position).
The best oppurtunity of the day was a short on MQG when it got around 51$.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Greece and the EURUSD cross

http://www.zerohedge...d-flight-safety

[Bernard L. Madoff]

EURUSD now really oversold. Just went in an initial small long looking for a pull up to the trendline.

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[sydney3000]

sydney3000, on 30 January 2010 - 06:48 AM, said:

A drop below 0.8750 and all hell could break lose. It is almost like Australia perfects the habit of being a late arrival on anything.

AUDUSD is now below 0.8750. A storm is coming. Expect a landslide.

This post has been edited by sydney3000: 04 February 2010 - 08:30 PM

[boz]

Tinpusher, on 04 February 2010 - 08:11 AM, said:

EURUSD now really oversold. Just went in an initial small long looking for a pull up to the trendline.

now is at around 1.374 at resistance (and at FIB point).
If it holds there a bit I might try a small long.
I'm loving this bear market for forex trading.

[Mr Medved]

I assume it is not beyond the realms of possibility that if .8750 was a major support that we could see the life sucked out of the Aussie battler. In that scenario, what currency/currencies will you (all) be long in while it falls?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

boz, on 04 February 2010 - 08:32 PM, said:

now is at around 1.374 at resistance (and at FIB point).
If it holds there a bit I might try a small long.
I'm loving this bear market for forex trading.

She took some hammer last night. Monty Pthonesque, its gone from oversold to really, really, really oversold.

Screw the techs, EVERY currency took hammer as Wall St melted and cash flew inyo YEN and USD.

I gave up a week of gains in 5 hours whilst I slept and that was just a mini trade. Bit like a house really, I only lose when I sell at these low prices.


Hovering near my stop tho

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Mr Medved, on 04 February 2010 - 09:35 PM, said:

I assume it is not beyond the realms of possibility that if .8750 was a major support that we could see the life sucked out of the Aussie battler. In that scenario, what currency/currencies will you (all) be long in while it falls?

The only currencies that rallied last night were YEN and USD.

[boz]

wonder how the swiss central bank stepped in few minutes ago?
 eur_chf.png (18.24K)
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(that is from 2 p.m. AUS eastern time)
they must lose heaps of money when they do that, or better say traders love banks stepping in (they don't care too much about losing money as they print them at their wish...).
now it is back to 1.474

[sydney3000]

Maybe Roger Federer is finding an outlet other than tennis.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

boz, on 04 February 2010 - 08:32 PM, said:

now is at around 1.374 at resistance (and at FIB point).
If it holds there a bit I might try a small long.
I'm loving this bear market for forex trading.

I had 1.3800 as the 50% Fib retracement of March Lows to Dec Highs.

[boz]

Tinpusher, on 05 February 2010 - 06:06 AM, said:

I had 1.3800 as the 50% Fib retracement of March Lows to Dec Highs.

had a look around for a good TA on the euro.
this is the one I like most (very recent).
lately US market futures have turned negative together with commodity and gold, bond futures up (yield down)
AU$ is losing against the euro but it is probably because the euro is on support at the lows of the day.
Swiss Francs back below 1.47, I'll expect a new Swiss bank buying frenzy, I'll see if I can buy the euro at around 1.466

[cobran20]

AUDEUR about to catch the lift?

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[Bernard L. Madoff]

COT

Have a look at the Right Column (Commercial). The Commercials are net short the USD and the AUD, Long the EUR.

http://www.forexrazo...of-Traders.aspx

[boz]

Tinpusher, on 08 February 2010 - 08:51 AM, said:

COT

Have a look at the Right Column (Commercial). The Commercials are net short the USD and the AUD, Long the EUR.

http://www.forexrazo...of-Traders.aspx

Yes, i always check the COT, in the last few weeks there has been significants changes.
I usually found interesting the volumes and where the speculators are positioned.
It is quite clear that commodity currency potentially have a lot more to unwind and a bottom picking is risky, may be less risky a bottom picking on the euro or GBP. wonder if 139.2 is a good buy on the GBP/JPY...or may be a 121 on the Eur/JPY (I had a limit buy on this just over 121 but seems I missed the train)

[Bernard L. Madoff]

boz, on 08 February 2010 - 09:25 AM, said:

Yes, i always check the COT, in the last few weeks there has been significants changes.
I usually found interesting the volumes and where the speculators are positioned.
It is quite clear that commodity currency potentially have a lot more to unwind and a bottom picking is risky, may be less risky a bottom picking on the euro or GBP. wonder if 139.2 is a good buy on the GBP/JPY...or may be a 121 on the Eur/JPY (I had a limit buy on this just over 121 but seems I missed the train)

I had a 138.5 BuyLimit on the GBPYEN and she hit on Friday, shat my pants that she may sail on by (was at work and laptop at home with trading platform). Might watch this closely .