[Cameron Murray]

Hi all,

Just thought some readers might be interested in this presentation from property bull Chris Joye http://www.rismark.c...df/Macsec_5.pdf

He categorises Steve Keen as a Roubini wannabe, and highlights pretty much every housing myth around - shortage (like California/Florida), low defaults (p42, just like the US in 2005) population growth (like California), and so on.

Cameron - Observations of an economist environmentalist

[Max Carnage]

[staringclown]

Cameron Murray, on 02 September 2010 - 02:49 AM, said:

Hi all,

Just thought some readers might be interested in this presentation from property bull Chris Joye http://www.rismark.c...df/Macsec_5.pdf

He categorises Steve Keen as a Roubini wannabe, and highlights pretty much every housing myth around - shortage (like California/Florida), low defaults (p42, just like the US in 2005) population growth (like California), and so on.

Cameron - Observations of an economist environmentalist

Thanks Cameron.

You'd think Keen had stolen Joyes first born child from the amount of time he devotes to debunking Keens views. Half of his blog yesterday.

He seems to have a lot of faith in the Chinese economy. That they will be able to to convert from an export driven economy to one supported by increased domestic demand and that they will be able to modernise their economy without too many growing pains in spite of global problems. If China does manage the transition well, and we continue to ride on their coat tails, what of the risk posed by of out of cycle rate rises by the banks or the RBA raising the official cash rate. From his blog he is assuming that there will be no hikes in the next 12-24 months. It will be a hell of a balancing act if they can pull it off.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Thanks Cameron.

I sense "a great disturbance in the Force".

[Bernard L. Madoff]

The Irish real estate market just 'went'.
http://en.wikipedia....property_bubble

There is sweet f*ck all Chemical Ali can do when she blows. The link above has some funny sh*t...

Quote

As of July 2007, estate agents in Dublin were reported to be offering incentives such as six months worth of mortgage payments to prospective buyers, in an attempt to avoid lowering the recorded sale price.[6]

[Chimerica]

Max Carnage, on 02 September 2010 - 04:07 AM, said:

Rimsack

[tom]

One thing he does seem to demonstrate is that China's bubble in price terms is smaller than Australias and their populations debt burden substantially less.

Wonder why the Chinese Central government is moving to kerb investment in Real Estate then. Maybe they got it wrong, Joye might be going on tour in China soon to make them see the light to prosperity on the back of house prices. Chine might develop from here with a further ponzi real estate bubble. Would have been interesting to hear what he had to say about it?

[staringclown]

tom, on 02 September 2010 - 09:35 AM, said:

One thing he does seem to demonstrate is that China's bubble in price terms is smaller than Australias and their populations debt burden substantially less.

Wonder why the Chinese Central government is moving to kerb investment in Real Estate then. Maybe they got it wrong, Joye might be going on tour in China soon to make them see the light to prosperity on the back of house prices. Chine might develop from here with a further ponzi real estate bubble. Would have been interesting to hear what he had to say about it?

They need to maintain an aspirational vibe among their society. If the disparity between rich and poor gets too wide then they will have social unrest. I don't think there is a particularly even spread of wealth at the moment. They also need sustainable growth. It's going be like "whack a mole" eventually with all of the issues their going have to confront. They have a large problem with corruption and a large dependence upon the USA. They can't afford any mistakes. A command economy might help them.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

staringclown, on 02 September 2010 - 09:57 AM, said:

They need to maintain an aspirational vibe among their society. If the disparity between rich and poor gets too wide then they will have social unrest. I don't think there is a particularly even spread of wealth at the moment. They also need sustainable growth. It's going be like "whack a mole" eventually with all of the issues their going have to confront. They have a large problem with corruption and a large dependence upon the USA. They can't afford any mistakes. A command economy might help them.

+1

...and they are self stimulating in the hope that US Unemp drops again and they start buying their sh*t with gusto...again.

[Max Carnage]

Just a heads-up for people who want to get information out of a company that that company might not make easily available. Or that they'd prefer you paid for.

Put the "Directory Listing Denied" address into a google site search "site:www.[etc]", then add " pdf" at the end. Try " ppt" and " doc" as well. For example, if I wanted to find out what was in the directory of a fantasy company called Rimsack, I might search for:
"site:www.rimsack.com.au/pdf/ pdf"

And interesting things might show up.

Similarly:
"site:images.ljhooker.com/agent_pages_au/ pdf"

And so on:
"site:www.cameopropertyservices.com.au/userfiles/file/ pdf"

I often find that REAs will put the market reports that they pay for onto their web server, so most anything can be had with a little searching!