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USA on the edge of the abyss.

#1 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 03:40 AM

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The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news


By Wayne Madsen

A top economic adviser to the Democratic Party, speaking on deep background, told WMR that the domino-like collapse of the economies of Iceland, Greece, Ireland, and, now, possibly Spain, is coming also to the United States.

One of the triggering mechanisms will be at the end of this month when two million idled workers, now collecting unemployment, will be dropped from the rolls. At the end of December, another two million workers will join the ranks of those who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and a total of 4 million Americans will be without unemployment checks and face destitution.

Four million Americans will put financial pressure on municipalities and state governments already facing bankruptcy.
Unlike Iceland, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, and, to some extent, Spain, which have strong central government control, the United States is a federal republic and, as such, the collapse of the economy will be state-by-state and begin at the municipality level, according to our source who has contacts within the Obama White House and the Democratic leadership of the Congress.

Municipalities, which guarantee the pensions of their retired employees through the issuance of municipal bonds, will find themselves faced with bankruptcy and the "Muni" bonds will be rated at junk status. Municipalities unable to pay out pensions will discover their pension funds can be bailed out by the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) in Washington, a federal corporation set up by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974.When the first municipality declares bankruptcy and seeks a bailout from the PBGC, there will be a domino effect, with others seeing it as a quick way out. Soon, the PBGC will, itself, be forced into bankruptcy. WMR has been told by our source it is doubtful that a Republican Congress will be interested in bailing out the PBGC.

The wildfire of municipality bankruptcies will then spread to the states, with California and Illinois likely to be the first two states to default on their debts and declare bankruptcy.

In order to raise quick cash for a financially-desperate state government, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger plans to sell 24 state buildings, including the Earl Warren Building in San Francisco, headquarters for the California Supreme Court, and then rent them back from the new owners. However, such desperate moves by states, including the selling off of their turnpike systems and state buildings — with parks maybe next on the auction block — is not enough to forestall bankruptcy. Unlike the federal government, which can print as much cash as it likes and needs, states do not have that luxury. However, given the imminent collapse of the national economy, some states may decide to print their own currency, an act that would lead to the dissolution of the present 50-state union.

As far as bank accounts are concerned, our source recommended avoiding large national and regional banks that have a high percentage of toxic assets, especially in the commercial real estate area. The next major bust, after the residential real estate plunge, will be commercial real estate, where values of buildings and shopping centers have been halved. Our source sees smaller, state-based banks, as safer for account holders. Also, as more and more large shopping malls begin to close across the country, the unemployment numbers will also skyrocket.

WMR was also informed that President Obama will not seize the bully pulpit and level with the American people about who and what caused the present economic crisis. "Obama is subservient to his teleprompter," the White House insider source said, "if he'd scrap the teleprompter and speak directly to the American people, he might help things, but right now, he's a disaster."



http://www.opinion-m...ore-worse-news/
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#2 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 04:19 AM

nice find, sounds plausible, but then the FEDS could print money t bail out the states. if it wanted to avoid " contagion "
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#3 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 04:23 AM

View Postsavagegoose, on 01 December 2010 - 04:19 AM, said:

nice find, sounds plausible, but then the FEDS could print money t bail out the states. if it wanted to avoid " contagion "

That will be a policy change. The current monetisations are Fed buying treasuries from Wall St banks (in the hope of bolstering the stock market).

4Million people without any income is a lot of bodies.
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#4 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 04:35 AM

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The U.S. Senate on Tuesday failed to meet a deadline to extend federal unemployment benefits, threatening half a million Californians with the prospect of losing their benefits by the end of December.

An estimated 454,000 California job seekers are among about 2 million nationwide who will be cut off from weekly unemployment benefits by the end of the year if the federal Emergency Unemployment Compensation program is allowed to lapse.



http://www.mercuryne...&nclick_check=1

Quote

Millions of jobless Americans are expected to lose their unemployment benefits, as lawmakers in the House of Representatives have failed to extend the program.


In eleven days, 800,000 people will lose all their benefits and by the end of the year, 2 million people will join their ranks, a Press TV correspondent reported on Saturday.

House Democrats and Republicans blame each other. Party leaders in Congress disagreed over how the $12.5 billion measure would be funded.

“This is unprecedented,” US unemployment analyst Scott Lilly says.

“We have always gone to extended benefits when we had unemployment above 7 to 7.5 percent. It is 9.5 percent now and we are terminating the program,” he added.

http://www.presstv.i...ail/151820.html
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#5 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 04:56 AM

so its a " hope yo got fat on turkey cuz xmas is going to be lean times " plan

surely they can print money and buy muni bonds. i mean theyre as likely as ea other of ever being paid out in full
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#6 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 05:48 AM

Gerald Calente's predictions are coming to fruition me thinks. 4 Million people on zero income and that many guns*?

*There are close to 4 million assault weapons in the U.S., which amounts to roughly 1.7% of the total gun stock.
http://www.guncite.c...l_gcassaul.html
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#7 User is offline   zaph 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 06:54 AM

View PostBernard L. Madoff, on 01 December 2010 - 05:48 AM, said:

Gerald Calente's predictions are coming to fruition me thinks. 4 Million people on zero income and that many guns*?

*There are close to 4 million assault weapons in the U.S., which amounts to roughly 1.7% of the total gun stock.
http://www.guncite.c...l_gcassaul.html



let's say half can live off the charity of friends and relatives, that still leaves 2m with no income. not a good sign for the American empire. i'd hazard a guess that the unemployed are over represented in the assualt weapon owning stats.
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#8 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 06:56 AM

mean while ball grabbing TSA are locking down bus terminals,. maybe some one plans to crash a fully fuelled bus into an important building?


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#9 User is offline   zaph 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 07:03 AM

View Postsavagegoose, on 01 December 2010 - 06:56 AM, said:

mean while ball grabbing TSA are locking down bus terminals,. maybe some one plans to crash a fully fuelled bus into an important building?




i am security hear me roar!
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#10 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 07:39 AM

or watching the movie speed is part of their training regime
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#11 User is offline   urchin 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 12:25 PM

View Postzaph, on 01 December 2010 - 07:03 AM, said:

i am security hear me roar!


oh lord. like riding a greyhound bus in the US isn't punishment enough...

on a side note, in Canberra there was a music festival last weekend (or perhaps the weekend before--i didn't go so i don't know) where the security guards were confiscating sunscreen as it violated the "no liquids" policy. obviously they thought that the music festival was just a big open-air airplane. it is silly but i think telling in terms of how mindless obedience to meaningless rules has become particularly prominent in the past 9 years. all anyone has to do is say "security" and they can get away with anything. we are raising taxes for your security, we are eliminate bus routes to prevent terrorism. try it at work--I'm taking tomorrow off for security reasons. and no, i can't tell you what those reasons are, that would be a violation of security...

honestly the pointless trauma and inconvenience of flying in the US (never a particularly pleasant ordeal) is a major reason why i don't go back to visit. it's not worth the stress and hassle, especially if i'm with the family. on my own, ok, but having my painfully shy 5 year old given a choice of standing in front of a massive x-ray machine whose effects on children has not been sufficiently studied or being groped by a strange man he has never seen before... nah, i will pass on that.

americans are egocentric even in their paranoia...
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#12 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 02:32 PM

4 million without income? Thats insurrection 101. The media will keep them subdued.
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#13 User is offline   zaph 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 08:05 PM

View Posturchin, on 01 December 2010 - 12:25 PM, said:

on a side note, in Canberra there was a music festival last weekend (or perhaps the weekend before--i didn't go so i don't know) where the security guards were confiscating sunscreen as it violated the "no liquids" policy.


the no liquid policy would be more about stopping people from smuggling in booze, but may have been dressed up as security. scotch and sunscreen anyone? perhaps they were selling sunscreen.
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#14 User is offline   Solomon 

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Posted 01 December 2010 - 10:20 PM

View PostBernard L. Madoff, on 01 December 2010 - 02:32 PM, said:

4 million without income? Thats insurrection 101. The media will keep them subdued.

Just wait till their flat-screens die!!! :starwars:
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#15 User is offline   Deck 

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Posted 02 December 2010 - 12:02 AM

by one of my businesses I have a direct access to many small and medium size US businesses' financials and i can tell you that even if it is not 2005, 2010 is much much better than 2008/9, a recovery is definitely on the way there, profits are much higher as well due cost saving/ productivity.
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#16 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 02 December 2010 - 03:48 AM

Sure, there are literally millions in America on 7 figure incomes plus.

Quote

Families with a net worth of at least $1 million, excluding primary residences, rose to 7.8 million in 2009, an increase from 6.7 million a year earlier, according to a survey of high- net-worth U.S. households conducted by Spectrem Group.


Quote

The number of households with a net worth of more than $5 million rose 17 percent to 980,000, Spectrem said.

http://www.businessw...s-update1-.html

The fact is that the top 1% own 50% of the country's wealth (the top 25%, controls 90% of the wealth) indicates thare are millions of cashed up folk that one can transact business with. The bottom 25% don't have any wealth and now we have indications that the bottom 1.5% are dirt poor with zero income. Also real unemployment is over 20%. It will be fine as long as the peasants accept their fate and situation passively.

PS Urchin, Christmas pressies for those back home... http://cargocollecti...om/4thamendment
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#17 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 03 December 2010 - 02:36 PM

Unemp data a stinker tonight

Payrolls Huge Miss: +39K Compared To Consensus Of 150K, 9.8% Unemployment Rate (up from 9.6%)

Private payrolls +50K on expectations of +160K! Manufacturing payrolls plunge 13K on expectations of +5K. Previous revised down to -7K. As Zero Hedge expected the ADP was totally and completely off. And so the myth of the recovery can suck it.

http://www.zerohedge...employment-rate


Here is todays report from the BLS

U3 unemployment 9.8%

U6 unemployment 17%

Below is todays release of BLS unemployment data:

http://www.bls.gov/n.../empsit.t15.htm
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#18 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 03 December 2010 - 03:25 PM

that would explain the $15 jump in gold price, oo ooh boom times over, back to falling USD. actually i just popped to have a look in at gold price on reading this post.

now just to check dollar rates
...
yup 98c we are now, um aud to usd that is
, Tue we have RBA interest rates, so if their recent record is anything to go on ill bet against everyones opinion their will be a raise.

hell that place cant even employ anyone over the xmas period. what they have robots unloading the boats of junk from china now?
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#19 User is offline   Bernard L. Madoff 

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Posted 03 December 2010 - 03:27 PM

Check this out.

Current numbers.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/index.html

2015 estimates based on current rates of change (up and down)of data.
http://www.usdebtclo...rent-rates.html
:jawdrop:
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#20 User is offline   boz 

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Posted 03 December 2010 - 08:37 PM

View PostBernard L. Madoff, on 03 December 2010 - 02:36 PM, said:

Unemp data a stinker tonight

Payrolls Huge Miss: +39K Compared To Consensus Of 150K, 9.8% Unemployment Rate (up from 9.6%)

Private payrolls +50K on expectations of +160K! Manufacturing payrolls plunge 13K on expectations of +5K. Previous revised down to -7K. As Zero Hedge expected the ADP was totally and completely off. And so the myth of the recovery can suck it.



QE critics love those results to put fuel on fire... here is one:

Quote


More Stimulus Means Fewer Jobs
By John Kicklighter, Currency Strategist 03 December 2010 18:08 GMT Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted Image Posted ImagePosted ImagePosted Image Today's payroll report severely disappointed on the downside and left economists scratching their heads to explain the weakness. The explanation, however, is plain as day. As I have been saying for years, the US economy will not create jobs as long as the Fed keeps interest rates artificially low, and Congress keeps stimulating spending and consumer debt, punishing employers with mandates, regulations, and taxes, crowding out private investment with massive government borrowing, and preventing market forces from restructuring our out-of-balance economy.

As new data comes in that continues to bolster my hypothesis, the politicians in Washington continue to follow the wrong diagnosis, while ignoring evidence that their policy prescription has failed. Rather than reassessing the effectiveness of their remedy, they are merely prescribing more of the same.

No doubt the 9.8% unemployment rate (17% when counting the under-employed or discouraged workers) will spark another extension of unemployment benefits, which will provide yet additional incentives for the unemployed not to work. In addition, we will likely get another round of stimulus - paid for with higher budget deficits - that will further hinder the capital investment and business formation necessary to produce sustainable jobs. Then, the inflation created by the Fed to finance those deficits will send consumer prices higher, making life that much harder for all Americans, regardless of their employment status.

All the talk in Washington that demand must be stimulated to create jobs is farcical. The news reports of mobs of shoppers trampling over each other to fill their carts shows there is plenty of demand. What is truly lacking in our economy is supply. Those mobs are still filling their carts almost exclusively with imported products. If it were true that demand creates jobs, we would be at full employment right now, but the truth is that demand is meaningless without the productive means to supply the goods.

It's ironic that extending unemployment benefits, one of the reasons unemployment remains so high in the first place, is actually being touted as a jobs bill. Keynesian proponents argue that giving money to unemployed people will create jobs wherever they spend their government cheese. This is utter nonsense.

If printing money and dolling it out to the unemployed could create growth and jobs, why hasn't it already worked? After all, we have already extended benefits to 99 weeks. Where are all the jobs? Also, if every dollar of unemployment benefits generates two dollars of growth, as our legislators claim, why not double or triple the benefits? In fact, why limit them to the unemployed? Just give the benefits to everyone - then we will really get this economy going.

Politicians cannot create economic growth at will simply by doling out money. If it could, the Soviets would have won the Cold War. Handing out cash does not create additional production, it merely changes who benefits from existing production. Transferring purchasing power from producers to consumers undermines economic growth and destroys jobs.

For now, production is being supplied from abroad. But this dynamic merely worsens our trade imbalance, putting our nation deeper into debt. As the dollar losses purchasing power, foreign goods will become more expensive and American living standards will plummet.

What will it take for our leaders to realize that their solution is exacerbating the problem they are trying to solve? Unfortunately, I doubt they will learn until the situation becomes intolerable for the majority of voters. These jobs numbers bring us one step closer to that critical mass.

Unless politicians can be roused from their stupor, we will soon confront an imminent sovereign debt and currency crisis that will make the credit crisis of 2008 look like a happy interlude. Hopefully, when the first major shock strikes in the US, as is currently happening in Ireland and Portugal, it will finally provoke a 180-degree change of policy in Washington. Hopefully, it won't be too late to spare millions from a life of subsistence, or worse. These are my hopes, but my fear is that we are on the cusp on the largest economic downfall in modern history.




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