[muzza]

oh deary me, only 48%, what a pity...

http://domainmasthea...ults/Sydney.pdf

Median: $553,000
% Cleared: 48%
Total Sales: $20,728,000
Withdrawn: 3
Total Properties: 66
Sold: 33
Property Snapshot

[Sean]

hee hee

interesting times...

[DataDawg]

I call BS on the total number of properties up for auction in Sydney. Only 66 properties in total, when the total number of home price reductions, as of yesterday, as displayed at http://www.refindhouseprices.com for NSW was approx. 2,750? I would think the REAL clearance rate was MUCH lower than 48%. It's just that a lot of the failed auctions weren't reported.

http://www.freeimage.../e0784c855c.jpg

http://www.freeimage.../be7001b176.png

muzza, on 05 February 2011 - 08:28 PM, said:

oh deary me, only 48%, what a pity...

http://domainmasthea...ults/Sydney.pdf

Median: $553,000
% Cleared: 48%
Total Sales: $20,728,000
Withdrawn: 3
Total Properties: 66
Sold: 33
Property Snapshot

[muzza]

DataDawg, on 06 February 2011 - 06:23 AM, said:

I call BS on the total number of properties up for auction in Sydney. Only 66 properties in total, when the total number of home price reductions, as of yesterday, as displayed at http://www.refindhouseprices.com for NSW was approx. 2,750? I would think the REAL clearance rate was MUCH lower than 48%. It's just that a lot of the failed auctions weren't reported.

http://www.freeimage.../e0784c855c.jpg

http://www.freeimage.../be7001b176.png

I'm sure you're right DD. From what I understand these figures rely on reporting by RE agents. Many of these people are professional liars. These figures can directly effect the psychology of the market so I would be very surprised if they are ever accurate in a falling market.

[staringclown]

DataDawg, on 06 February 2011 - 06:23 AM, said:

I call BS on the total number of properties up for auction in Sydney. Only 66 properties in total, when the total number of home price reductions, as of yesterday, as displayed at http://www.refindhouseprices.com for NSW was approx. 2,750? I would think the REAL clearance rate was MUCH lower than 48%. It's just that a lot of the failed auctions weren't reported.

Well they're not good at maths coz 33/66 = 50% not 48%. This could be related to wulfgars deflation theory.

Unless they are including the withdrawn auctions with the total.

In which case the total should read 69 not 66. But who knows with these clowns.

[DataDawg]

staringclown, on 06 February 2011 - 08:22 AM, said:

Well they're not good at maths coz 33/66 = 50% not 48%. This could be related to wulfgars deflation theory.

Unless they are including the withdrawn auctions with the total.

In which case the total should read 69 not 66. But who knows with these clowns.

Yeah.. I was thinking the panic was so great that after stripping the denominator down to a 'reasonable' (i.e. 'plausible') 66, they didn't think to perform the calculation (because these aren't real numbers anyway) and instead referred to the last published clearance rate (55% from memory) as a guide for this week's clearance rate. Thus they brought this week's down to 48%, just because it was a nice round number and it was certainly better than the ACTUAL 5-10%. :-D

[staringclown]

DataDawg, on 06 February 2011 - 09:21 AM, said:

Yeah.. I was thinking the panic was so great that after stripping the denominator down to a 'reasonable' (i.e. 'plausible') 66, they didn't think to perform the calculation (because these aren't real numbers anyway) and instead referred to the last published clearance rate (55% from memory) as a guide for this week's clearance rate. Thus they brought this week's down to 48%, just because it was a nice round number and it was certainly better than the ACTUAL 5-10%. :-D

Matthew Bell claims they get 70% of the results for all auctions by wednesday.

Quote

On a typical Saturday in Sydney, real estate agents will report over 70% of all auction results to APM. This proportion is lower for Melbourne, but rising. Auctions are held nearly exclusively on Saturdays, meaning that the results collection process can be undertaken largely on a single day without taking too much time out of agents’ schedules. Private treaty sales results, although collected for the Saturday, are also spread out throughout the week. Consequently, private treaty sales are collected with a much longer time delay from both agents and the Valuer Generals Office.

He defends the metric while at the same time hiding most of the data. Asks you to trust him.

Crikey is on to the REIV. Although schwab defends APM. They're always lower than REIV but 66 sample size needs to be put into perspective against the total number of auctions else it is meaningless. Is it 2% of the total auctions or 20%?

Auction clearance rates: would you ask your barber if you needed a haircut?

Quote

Yesterday, a percipient Crikey tipster questioned, “why is the Real Estate Institute of Victoria allowed to peddle their unreliable data to paint a completely different picture of the Melbourne property market? Taking into account ‘no-result’ auctions over the past five weeks, the clearance rate is falling — now to below 60% — yet the figures the REIV present indicate a clearance rate at more than 70%. The market isn’t as balanced as they would have you believe. Anyone who has studied investor behaviour knows people are more comfortable to move with the herd and reassurance that others are buying will influence their choices. The misinformation is deliberate as the REIV attempts to massage the market and stop buyers making informed decisions”.

Correct data is ironically quoted in another Fairfax paper — the Australian Financial Review, every Monday. Without fail, the AFR clearance rate statistics (which is provided by Australian Property Monitors), alleges a lower clearance rate than the figures claimed by the Real Estate Institute. This is largely because the REIV tends to ignore the substantial number properties that are not reported — almost all of those no-results actually have a result — that is, they are passed in’.

Crikey recently conducted its own survey of clearance rates in Melbourne (long considered the auction capital of Australia). In a weekend in which 519 properties were auctioned and the REIV reported a 68% clearance rate. This result was duly reported by the Sunday papers. The only problem is that figure was not correct.

Crikey’s own clearance rate study was based on the specific 228 properties that were listed in Fairfax’s Domain auction. While not an entire universe of auctions, it was a large enough sample to determine a satisfactory result and more importantly, was a fully self-contained set of data. Of the 228 properties that were listed for auction, 125 sold — equating to a clearance rate of 54%. That assumes the 38 properties that were not mentioned on Sunday, all failed to sell. Even if all the unreported properties were sold, the clearance rate would have been 65% — still below the REIV figure.

That weekend, Australian Property Monitors reported to the Financial Review that Melbourne’s clearance rate was 60.8% (a figure broadly in line with Crikey’s calculations). Substantially different to the result claimed by the REIV and reported by The Age.

This post has been edited by staringclown: 06 February 2011 - 09:47 AM

[DataDawg]

Mmm.. I haven't read Crikey for quite some time. Completely unaware that they'd tackled property auctions reporting. Good work!

The RE industry has no excuse for not providing a 'total number of auctions'. We know that this number is obtainable because the MSM sometimes quote it in the pre-Saturday real estate press releases (printed in verbatim) that they try to pass off as independent journalism.

The measure of auction performance (clearance rate, whatever they want to call it) should be the total number of auctioned properties divided by THAT number. This way, even if there is selection bias in the numerator, the denominator won't be tinkered with (as long as they keep trumpeting it before Saturday AND use it in the clearance calculation). This method should produce a more 'reliable' series of clearance rates - or at least a more truthful one.

Clearance rates, it can't be forgotten, are best interpreted as a time series. Note that historical APM and RP data auction reports both show a steadily falling trend in clearance rates from mid-high 70's in March last year to high 40's ' / low 50's by end of December (see attached - and note that I've put in yesterday's clearance rate, which appears as a single dot at the end). You can only observe these trends if you refer back to old clearance rate figures and punch them into a spreadsheet yourself, as I've done. Trends for over half a year are not shown in these reports (or at least not in the online freebies).

Of course, the numbers will always be tinkered with. It won't be easy for REA's to take the pay-cut that's coming. Most will have to go without the latest model Beamer. Hell, they might even have trouble paying for the spare parts to keep the old jalopy going.

This post has been edited by DataDawg: 06 February 2011 - 10:44 AM

[staringclown]

DataDawg, on 06 February 2011 - 10:43 AM, said:

Mmm.. I haven't read Crikey for quite some time. Completely unaware that they'd tackled property auctions reporting. Good work!

The RE industry has no excuse for not providing a 'total number of auctions'. We know that this number is obtainable because the MSM sometimes quote it in the pre-Saturday real estate press releases (printed in verbatim) that they try to pass off as independent journalism.

The measure of auction performance (clearance rate, whatever they want to call it) should be the total number of auctioned properties divided by THAT number. This way, even if there is selection bias in the numerator, the denominator won't be tinkered with (as long as they keep trumpeting it before Saturday AND use it in the clearance calculation). This method should produce a more 'reliable' series of clearance rates - or at least a more truthful one.

Clearance rates, it can't be forgotten, are best interpreted as a time series. Note that historical APM and RP data auction reports both show a steadily falling trend in clearance rates from mid-high 70's in March last year to high 40's ' / low 50's by end of December (see attached - and note that I've put in yesterday's clearance rate, which appears as a single dot at the end). You can only observe these trends if you refer back to old clearance rate figures and punch them into a spreadsheet yourself, as I've done. Trends for over half a year are not shown in these reports (or at least not in the online freebies).

Of course, the numbers will always be tinkered with. It won't be easy for REA's to take the pay-cut that's coming. Most will have to go without the latest model Beamer. Hell, they might even have trouble paying for the spare parts to keep the old jalopy going.

Nice work yerself with the excel Dawg. Someones gotta question the "data". If the media aren't doing their job somebody else will have to. I want to my agents driving 10 YO corollas.

[DataDawg]

staringclown, on 06 February 2011 - 10:59 AM, said:

<br>Nice work yerself with the excel Dawg. Someones gotta question the "data". If the media aren't doing their job somebody else will have to. I want to my agents driving 10 YO corollas.&nbsp;&nbsp; <img src="http://www.simplesustainable.com/public/style_emoticons/default/smile.gif" class="bbc_emoticon" alt=""><br>

<br><a

This post has been edited by DataDawg: 06 February 2011 - 09:47 PM

[booboo]

Couple of points:

It's actually 33 / (66 + 2), as the 2 withdrawn are not included in the "total". Obviously, according to APM, a withdrawn auction is not actually an "auction". At least they still include it in the clearance rate, though.

Secondly, RP Data auction results (released each Wednesday?) seem to be more complete. They contain total auctions, number of reported auctions, and so on. Anyone have access to RP Data auction results? Or do they release them to the general public? Someone on CC used to post them up... I'd tend to prefer RP Data's clearance rates over APM's (especially as I wouldn't trust any stat from APM), but APM's do some out basically on the same day.

[booboo]

SMH reports on the weak auction clearance rates.

Quote

New year enthusiasm takes a holiday

JONATHAN CHANCELLOR
February 7, 2011 The weekend's 48 per cent auction clearance rate has done nothing to assuage the nervous anticipation about the direction of the residential property market this year.

It was well below last year's opening weekend figure of 68 per cent, and puts this month in line for its weakest result since 2005.

Typically as Sydney returns from the summer holidays there is an enthusiastic burst of buyer energy.

Advertisement: Story continues below Last February's overall clearance rate was 72 per cent, having finished off December 2009 at 65 per cent.

Pent-up demand from those who missed out during the previous spring selling season has meant that February has always notched up a healthier clearance rate than the preceding December.

We come back from the summer break as active optimists. But it seems for the first time in 23 years - since records were kept - this occurrence is possibly under threat.

The biggest turnaround between the end of one year and the start of the next was the 44 per cent in December 2008 and the 62 per cent in February 2009, according to Australian Property Monitors.

This month's clearance rate will need to bump up to 53 per cent to outdo the December figure, 52 per cent. January has insufficient volume to be a reliable bellwether, but it too points to market weakness.

Last month's clearance rate from 93 results was 59 per cent, compared with 71 per cent in January last year.

The higher level of nervousness as to the market direction comes as the final data from last year showed a lacklustre second half of the year after a strong start.

Last February's 72 per cent clearance rate, with an above-average 1500 listings, turned out to be the strongest auction month of the year.

By May, which was the busiest auction month with 2900 listings, it was down to 63 per cent. The 52 per cent in December was the year's weakest result. Some analysts are understandably wondering if it will be a flat start to the year.

Property sector professionals recently surveyed by National Australia Bank said they expected residential home prices to fall 0.5 per cent nationally over the next 12 months. It noted expectations turned negative in the December quarter because of tighter credit and rising interest rates.

In the NAB report Sydney prices were tipped to record a modest 0.4 per cent rise this year, as would Canberra prices. Adelaide was tipped to lead the capital cities with a 1 per cent rise.

However, given headline inflation growing at about 2.7 per cent, it translates into a fall in values for all Australia's capital cities.

Tales of huge price falls to achieve top-end sales have become increasingly regular in the property gossip columns around the country, but even the cheapest end of the markets appear vulnerable.

Sydney's cheapest weekend auction price was $151,000, for an apartment in Campbelltown. That was a touch below its last sale price. The two-bedroom apartment sold for $160,000 in 2004, as Sydney's outer west headed towards its then boomtime peak. Yet a two-bedroom apartment in Miranda recorded a bullish 8.6 per cent annual price growth with its sale for $370,000, almost double the $192,000 paid in 2001.

It had been sold twice during the past decade, at $312,000 in 2006 and at $295,000 in 2008.

It would be melodramatic to suggest that getting a good price in the current market is a lottery.

But with fresh listings well down, it would seem plenty of potential vendors are content to sit on the sidelines and wait and see. They will only join the 2011 market if the mood and clearance rates start to gather a healthier momentum.

A common theme (see last paragraph above, or article from Dr Andrew Wilson) in articles on real estate recently is that listing numbers are not increasing - yet stats posted by Data Dawg show they are. Although I have to admit, those articles are not providing numbers, proof, or sources for their claims of reduced listings.

[booboo]

Oh, there is, in a different story:

Quote

Buyer's market as auction sales slow

Jonathan Chancellor PROPERTY EDITOR
February 7, 2011 THE 48 per cent weekend auction clearance rate puts February in line for its weakest real estate sales figure in six years.

The result is well below last February's 68 per cent opening weekend sales tally. January's result, albeit on low volumes, reflected a similiar trend, with a 59 per cent sale rate, compared with 71 per cent last year. February typically averages about 1200 auctions, but Saturday's 110 auction listings were down 18 per cent on the same weekend last year.

About 8400 new listings - a mix of auction and private treaty offerings - were posted across NSW in January, 10 per cent lower than last January's new stock levels. The fresh listings put the total advertised at 55,600, according to RP Data.

''Total listings are 8 per cent higher than at the same time last year, so there is clearly an overhang of unsold stock from late last year,'' RP Data's research director, Tim Lawless, said.

Fewer buyers and more stock meant ''it is well and truly a buyer's market'', he said.

Not even 40-plus temperatures stopped enthusiastic bidding at Punchbowl at an onsite auction on Saturday as developers bid for a 2540 sq m block. The site, suitable for seven townhouses, was sold under the hammer for $1.4 million

And don't forget the pointless anecdotal evidence at the end that goes against the rest of the article, just to leave the impression that the demand is still there!

APM's stock on market in Sydney seems to agree - stock decreasing in Sydney again. It there was lower volumes (especially in December / January), I guess the only answer is sellers removing their property from the market?

[zaph]

booboo, on 06 February 2011 - 11:13 PM, said:

Couple of points:

It's actually 33 / (66 + 2), as the 2 withdrawn are not included in the "total". Obviously, according to APM, a withdrawn auction is not actually an "auction". At least they still include it in the clearance rate, though.

Secondly, RP Data auction results (released each Wednesday?) seem to be more complete. They contain total auctions, number of reported auctions, and so on. Anyone have access to RP Data auction results? Or do they release them to the general public? Someone on CC used to post them up... I'd tend to prefer RP Data's clearance rates over APM's (especially as I wouldn't trust any stat from APM), but APM's do some out basically on the same day.

they're available through realestate.com.au. left hand side > experts > auction results. they take a while to make it up. the latest - http://www.rs.reales...n/rsearch?a=ars

[DataDawg]

booboo, on 06 February 2011 - 11:13 PM, said:

Couple of points:

It's actually 33 / (66 + 2), as the 2 withdrawn are not included in the "total". Obviously, according to APM, a withdrawn auction is not actually an "auction". At least they still include it in the clearance rate, though.

Secondly, RP Data auction results (released each Wednesday?) seem to be more complete. They contain total auctions, number of reported auctions, and so on. Anyone have access to RP Data auction results? Or do they release them to the general public? Someone on CC used to post them up... I'd tend to prefer RP Data's clearance rates over APM's (especially as I wouldn't trust any stat from APM), but APM's do some out basically on the same day.

Point no. 1 accepted.

Point no. 2: RP data show more details such as the number sold prior and after. They also show 'total auctions' but is it REALLY the total no. of auctions, or just those they bothered to include in their calculations? Note that RP isn't as consistent in reporting weekly clearance rates, so the below series is more broken up, but very similar to the APM series I posted above.



APM show median price and total amount (all auctions added up, from which an average can be obtained). I've charted both for your viewing pleasure.



Note that the above APM chart includes the price data for today's result which is a stellar 69% clearance rate for Sydney, with 151 auctions reported, 110 sold and only 9 withdrawn! But I show the median/average price to demonstrate that today's higher than trend-average clearance rate came at a cost :-D. I've said before (either on this forum or on some other forum) that once vendors stop being stubborn and settle on lower bids, the clearance rate will increase. Perhaps today's APM auction results are showing us that vendors are finally starting to capitulate.. or maybe it's all just cooked up and we'd obtain more reliable information from chicken gizzards :-D

This post has been edited by DataDawg: 12 February 2011 - 11:06 AM

[DataDawg]

...the below chart shows a divergence in median price and clearance rates that starts in September last year. From here you can observe the antagonism that began to grow between price and the proportion of 'successful' auctions.

[booboo]

RP Data clearance rates in Sydney last weekend, from this Macro Business article about an article from serial uber bull on everything Adam Carr. Were these the RP Data values you used, Data Dawg? I am guessing they have been revised again since that article, as well (or will be).



Note that the RP Data values on www.realestate.com.au on their auction results page has not been yet updated for last weekend. Do you have RP Data access to their auction results? Would love to compare them every week.

APM has not updated their weekend results at homepriceguide, still claiming 69% for Sydney.

[booboo]

I should add that it's a bit annoying (or it appears so to me) that APM never release their updated auction results on homepriceguide. They just seem to leave the Saturday night results pdf there all week.

[DataDawg]

booboo, on 16 February 2011 - 03:13 AM, said:

RP Data clearance rates in Sydney last weekend, from this Macro Business article about an article from serial uber bull on everything Adam Carr. Were these the RP Data values you used, Data Dawg? I am guessing they have been revised again since that article, as well (or will be).



Note that the RP Data values on www.realestate.com.au on their auction results page has not been yet updated for last weekend. Do you have RP Data access to their auction results? Would love to compare them every week.

APM has not updated their weekend results at homepriceguide, still claiming 69% for Sydney.

Hey there booboo,

I obtained the RP clearance rates series from this page: http://reareports.re...com.au/index.do under the 'News' section, near the bottom. If you go to 'more news' you have quite a long listing of these auction reports going back to the beginning of my time series.

I haven't signed up for any RP data products. Just getting what I can for free. Yep, looks like the results you posted are 'updates' on the reports I've been using.

Yep APM are like that. They like to fiddle with the little bar chart on the domain page too. Hehe. Last year they left off a few months' bars until the clearance rate picked up temporarily. Then they put up the month with the increase and chopped off the earlier bars which were much higher. This hid the consistent downward trend since March 2010. Sneaky bastards.

[muzza]

Good on you DataDawg, love your work man.