Now the fun part: Dr Ando's
delusional and one-eyed analysis.
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The clearance rate for the first weekend of the autumn home auction season in Sydney was strong but it is still too early to gauge the underlying sentiment of buyers.
The auction clearance rate of 71.6 per cent on Saturday was well above the 48.2 per cent reported for the corresponding weekend last year. But with only 76 properties offered at the weekend, compared with 111 last year, a clearer trend will not emerge until the number of properties on offer increases.
A clearer trend? There is no trend to a statistically insiginificant result, Dr Ando, you'd think a PhD in economics would understand that. Besides, if you look at the REINSW results, they display a clear trend with last year, unlike the APM results.
Of course, if you're unwilling to accept that the results were statistically insignificant, then of course you have a strong headline clearance rate and weak median and mean. So does Dr Ando mentions how the former was "strong", but he mentioned the latter was weak? Well, he mentions the median, but obviously it doesn't warrant further analysis, most likely because it does not agree with the picture he is trying to paint:
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Of the 63 reported auction results, four were withdrawn and 48 sold at an average of $550,000. The median price of houses sold was $595,025.
No mention of the median unit price, guess it was too low for Dr Ando to mention.
Of course, Dr Ando's non-sequitors bear analysing, as usual:
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Last year ended on a subdued note for the Sydney auction market with year-low clearance rates in December despite significant numbers of properties being offered for sale.
So obviously Dr Ando is impying their is positive correlation with auction clearance rates and the number of properties offered for sale. I am somewhat sceptical.
Anyway, so what's the outlook? Gotta be positive!
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This year is set to be one of gradual recovery in the Sydney market with median house prices expected to rise by between 3 and 5 per cent over the year.
First-home buyers will be quiet early in the year as demand from that group was brought forward at the end of last year.
But expect this to be offset by increased activity from change-up buyers in the middle price sector of the market and investors in the lower sectors - particularly the unit market - that will keep buyer activity ticking along.
Although the prestige market will remain relatively subdued initially, expect some momentum to build through the year on the back of increased activity by aspirational buyers seeking value in quality properties in prestige locations, particularly in the $2 million to $3 million price range.
Unemployment in Sydney has increased in recent months, but the outlook remains positive despite indications of further job shedding, particularly in the finance sector.
The positive outlook will be enhanced by a further fall in official interest rates expected to be announced by the Reserve Bank board after its meeting tomorrow.
The one thing with Dr Ando is that when he tells us to "expect" something, you know it won't happen.
And don't look too close at Dr Ando's "analysis" - or you'll see the myriad of holes. Yes, he did just say that those properties in the $2M to $3M price range will start "subdued", then see "momentum" because people will buy them because they are cheap (read: "seeking value in quality properties"). That's right, the ol' "houses can't fall because if they fall people will jump in because they see value" argument. Just a little more cleverly worded, but just as dumb. Dr Ando really does not think highly of his readers, does he?
Even better is the way he swats off the problem of increased unemployment like na irksome fly. None of his usual "analysis" is even required for this one, all that he needs to tell us is that "the outlook remains positive", despite all indicators to the contrary.
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