[tom]

booboo, you nearly got me in trouble sitting here at the workstation laughing. keep it up. I had to quickly open up a dirty email to cover up what I was smiling about...

Quote

The ol' falling house prices makes house prices increase.

[zaph]

Quote

SYDNEY'S housing market ran out of steam at the weekend with buying activity in full retreat over the past month, and the clearance rate hitting a record low for the year.

The outlook for next year remains positive. Sydney has reinforced its position as Australia's most resilient housing market despite a quiet year for buyer activity. Median price growth for dwellings is set to be flat for the year - still the best result of any of the capitals. Expect a modest but sustained recovery in the Sydney market next year.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.a...l#ixzz1gwIaHR43

Ando's latest and certainly not his greatest spruik

[booboo]

As usual, Dr Ando has glossed over what will happen to the "surge" in FHBs once the discounted stamp duty is taken away.

And as far his "modest sustained recovery", it will go the same way as his "modest growth" and "recovery" for Sydney's property market that was supposed to occur in the second half of 2011, and don't forget the "increased buyer activity", among other things, that Dr Ando claimed repeatedly over the last 4 months of the year, which, seasonality aside, also didn't eventuate. I have yet to see Dr Ando admit that the outlook is anything but "positive" yet, and I doubt I will ever see him ever say it isn't.

However, I will freely admit that all Dr Ando has to do is keep banging on about a "recovery" forever, and he will eventually be right. Eventually.

The really funny part is how he said that the median price is "set to be flat for the year" - I assume he means 2011, because the rubbish APM state of the market report for 2012 claims anything but. It's interesting how property spruikers can turn a couple of percentage points worth of fall into "flat".

This sort of article from Dr Ando just tells you how bad the market is.

[zaph]

booboo, on 19 December 2011 - 04:26 AM, said:

The really funny part is how he said that the median price is "set to be flat for the year" - I assume he means 2011, because the rubbish APM state of the market report for 2012 claims anything but. It's interesting how property spruikers can turn a couple of percentage points worth of fall into "flat".

when i first read that last paragraph i thought he was referring to 2012 as being flat, sounds like perhaps you got the same impression. a big spruiking mistake on the doctors behalf.

[booboo]

zaph, on 19 December 2011 - 04:43 AM, said:

when i first read that last paragraph i thought he was referring to 2012 as being flat, sounds like perhaps you got the same impression. a big spruiking mistake on the doctors behalf.

Yup, the good doctor will never win a literary prize, that's for sure. The topic sentence is about the property market for 2012. The middle part of the paragraph explains why the performance for 2012 will be good, by talking about 2011, then the final part talks about 2012 again. Future, past, future. Poorly structured and confusing paragraph. Bemusing, too, because as you mentioned, it's a failed spruik - it makes it look like Dr Ando said 2012 will be flat, instead he's saying 2011 was "flat" (to widely varying values and definitions of "flat") and 2012 will be a "recovery".

[zaph]

The doctor has really out done himself with this spruik. Read more: http://www.brisbanet...l#ixzz1i4At7oH3 unless otherwise stated all my data is RPD SA up to October (as APM is not freely available)

AUSTRALIAN housing markets displayed a generally resilient performance in 2011, reflecting the inherent security of residential real estate in this country, particularly when compared with housing markets in similar open-market economies.
if 1 to 8% drops, with a nation wide 4% are resilient then yes.
The year was always set to be a period of correction for Australia's housing markets following the unsustainable growth in house prices recorded through 2009 and 2010.
that's not what the doctor said 11 months ago. http://smh.domain.co...sted=successful

Australian Property Monitors data has revealed that capital city housing markets have generally performed encouragingly in 2011 despite the pressure on housing affordability generated in 2010 and a mixed economic performance in 2011.

well perhaps by APM data? but the other data providers disagree; with 4%, 3.55% & 2.2% drops reported by RPD, residex and ABS respectively. perhaps the doctor is encouraged by 2.2-4% falls.

The best capital city performers were Melbourne and Sydney, where annual median house prices rose by 1 per cent. Darwin and Adelaide house prices were flat and Hobart down 1.5 per cent.

once again all the other data providers disagree.

The worst performers over the year were Brisbane and Perth, where annual median house prices fell by 3.5 and 4.75 per cent respectively.

you're embarrassing yourself Ando.

Bureau of Statistics data confirms the solid performance by Australian housing markets in 2011, with the number of owner-occupier housing loans rising by 2.4 per cent over the 10 months ending October compared with the same period in 2010.
performance of a market is measured by debt doctor? up to the third quarter the ABS has all capital cities in the red with the weighted average down 2.2%. cap cities down anything between 0.3% and 5.2%. - this is prices not debt.

New South Wales was the best performer with an increase of 8 per cent, with Western Australia surprisingly in second place with growth in home loans of 7 per cent over the year, courtesy of a surge in the past three months - indicating perhaps growing late-year momentum in that market.

more success measured by debt.

and the cost of the reconstruction levy.

the levy started half way through the year. most of the data refers to the 4, or so months it applied. must have had a huge impact.

Higher prices for fruit and vegetables also affected household budgets nationally.

the cost of bananas prevented me from buying an IP.

Most Australian capital city housing markets are, however, set to record growth in median prices over 2012 as the national economy gathers strength.

just like they were set to 11 months ago. what's the record annual growth doc?
Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart will be the underperformers in 2012, with median house price growth of between zero and 5 per cent.
Melbourne's balanced housing supply and demand mix offers buyers a wide choice and it remains the most tenant-friendly capital city rental market. Affordability barriers, however, remain for home buyers.


With the Victorian economy showing signs of running out of puff, particularly as the recent construction boom abates, the housing market is set to drift sideways though 2012. The possibility remains of some growth in median house prices by the end of 2012 as the impact of a strong national economy filters through.
the doctor's colleagues don't agree, they think the melbourne inner market is oversupplied and getting worse.


sorry to steal your thunder Booboo. feel free to add you usually witty commentary.

# apparently i had too many quotes so have bolded the quotes.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

zaph, on 31 December 2011 - 12:57 AM, said:

Higher prices for fruit and vegetables also affected household budgets nationally.

the cost of bananas prevented me from buying an IP.

Got Bananas for $1kg today at a farmers market. I might pop out today and buy a 4 bedder at Coogee Beach within walking distance of the Galloping Greens and Royal Randwick.

Chris and Ando should strike up a dual gig like The Two Ronnies, Morecambe and Wise etc

[booboo]

Dr Ando has a video on the rate cut which didn't happen - and he doesn't seem too happy about it, either.

Highlights:

Quote

Today's decision by the Reserve Bank to leave interest rates on hold provides mixed news to Australia's housing markets.

Quote

Housing markets struggled generally in 2011, with all capitals recording falls in median house prices.

Quote

Interest rate cuts act to improve housing affordability and lift buyer and seller confidence. So, today's announcement will be viewed as disappointing by many in the market place.

Yes! Be upset at the RBA mortgage mugs! Rise up and complain that you want cheaper interest rates!

Quote

Falls in the interest rates would also help the general health of the economy, which has struggled in parts over the past year.

The prospects of a gradual recovery in most housing markets through 2012 remains solid, particularly in those states with direct exposure to the resource sector and those with underlying housing shortages. Recovery prospects would however have been enhanced by a further interest rate cut, providing real stimulus for housing markets to build some early year momentum through increased buyer activity.

Yes, Dr Ando is complaining about housing not getting an IR cut, even though he thinks the housing market will "recover" this year and see "modest growth of 3 to 5 percent".

Quote

Although a disappoint to markets, and sectors needing stimulus, today's decision by the Reserve Bank indicates increasing confidence in Australia's economic prospects in 2012, which is positive news for a currently subdued housing market.

OH NO HE DIDN'T!

That's right, after complaining about not getting a rate cut, how the rate cut is positive for the housing market, and how a rate cut would've stimulated the housing market, he now says that not having a rate cut is also "positive news for ... [the] housing market".

Un-f*cking-believable. No matter if the rates go up, do down, or go sideways, it's always positive news for the housing market, apparently. Doublethink, anyone?

Seriously, Dr Ando is campaigning hard to win that coveted award won by John Edward.

This post has been edited by booboo: 07 February 2012 - 07:49 AM

[staringclown]

booboo, on 07 February 2012 - 07:48 AM, said:

Dr Ando has a video on the rate cut which didn't happen - and he doesn't seem too happy about it, either.

Highlights:







Yes! Be upset at the RBA mortgage mugs! Rise up and complain that you want cheaper interest rates!



Yes, Dr Ando is complaining about housing not getting an IR cut, even though he thinks the housing market will "recover" this year and see "modest growth of 3 to 5 percent".



OH NO HE DIDN'T!

That's right, after complaining about not getting a rate cut, how the rate cut is positive for the housing market, and how a rate cut would've stimulated the housing market, he now says that not having a rate cut is also "positive news for ... [the] housing market".

Un-f*cking-believable. No matter if the rates go up, do down, or go sideways, it's always positive news for the housing market, apparently. Doublethink, anyone?

Seriously, Dr Ando is campaigning hard to win that coveted award won by John Edward.

Yes nothing short of lower rates and an economy going gangbusters at the same time would appease his greed. A 3-5% increase in prices per year is no where near high enough.

I bags presenting that award. Here's your prize Dr Ando.

Bend over...

[Crest]

booboo, on 07 February 2012 - 07:48 AM, said:

That's right, after complaining about not getting a rate cut, how the rate cut is positive for the housing market, and how a rate cut would've stimulated the housing market, he now says that not having a rate cut is also "positive news for ... [the] housing market".

Un-f*cking-believable. No matter if the rates go up, do down, or go sideways, it's always positive news for the housing market, apparently. Doublethink, anyone?

Seriously, Dr Ando is campaigning hard to win that coveted award won by John Edward.

This Doc Wilson from APM really is becoming more and more of a joke. I get that his brief is to spruik 'till death but its becoming bizarre now.

Surely the group of people who take his comments seriously must be getting smaller and smaller each day.

Along with those that pay attention to Joye, Yardney and the other spruikers.

[cobran20]

I feel like shedding a tear or two for those poor agents!

SMH: Agents, vendors hold breath for buyers to brave unchanged lending rates

Quote

THE Reserve Bank's decision not to cut interest rates has dealt a blow to the confidence of buyers and smothered a real estate market that was in the tentative stages of a recovery, agents warn.

From the eastern suburbs out to the west, agents had started the year with a spring in their step, fielding more inquiries and selling more houses than this time last year.

But that continued momentum is now in doubt, according to agents, who fear there will be a slower recovery.

"We need rate cuts in the eastern suburbs particularly for confidence and other parts of Sydney for mortgage payments" ... Director of BradfieldCleary, Bob Guth. Photo: Glenn Hunt

''It's disappointing,'' said Bob Guth, a director of BradfieldCleary, an agency in the eastern suburbs.

''We need rates cuts in the eastern suburbs particularly for confidence and other parts of Sydney for mortgage payments and the opportunity to borrow.''

Vendors will be anxiously waiting to see if the interest rate decision will have any impact on sales this weekend.

Alicia Walsh is desperately hoping her family's Marrickville house will sell on Saturday when it goes to auction.

''A rate cut would have helped but I think if you want to make a long-term investment, it won't stop people from buying and we have had a lot of interest and contracts taken,'' Ms Walsh said.

The president of the Real Estate Institute of Australia, Pamela Bennett, said lower inflation figures showed there was a ''clear indicator to cut rates'' and the fact those cuts were put on hold would dampen any recovery.

''We know that first home buyers are starting to return to the property market but another reduction would have assisted in stimulating the lower end of the market and provided a ripple effect to those buyers trading up,'' she said.

In Blacktown, an area with a high proportion of these buyers, agent Mark Sargent, from Starr Partners, said the decision would hurt those most vulnerable. ''We deal with a lot of first home buyers who have got to pay stamp duty now, which they didn't have to before Christmas [because of the state government grants],'' he said.

[Crest]

So one day this week Andrew Wilson says:

Quote

Although a disappoint to markets, and sectors needing stimulus, today's decision by the Reserve Bank indicates increasing confidence in Australia's economic prospects in 2012, which is positive news for a currently subdued housing market.

Then on another day he says:

Quote

THE Reserve Bank's decision not to cut interest rates has dealt a blow to the confidence of buyers and smothered a real estate market that was in the tentative stages of a recovery, agents warn.

.

Is he on drugs?

Quote

''We need rates cuts in the eastern suburbs particularly for confidence and other parts of Sydney for mortgage payments and the opportunity to borrow.''

How about if houses were just cheaper? Then we would have less debt, buyers would have a "spring in their step" and 0.25% variations in the rba cash rate wouldnt matter. Problem solved.

[savagegoose]

how about agents get together and start a mortgage fund that loans THEIR OWN MONEY OUT at lower rates.maybe they can move their super money into mortgage backed instruments.

[Dose]

Or just sell their houses to each other for the same amount over and over and over and waive the fees. That could create "cautious optimism".

[Peachy]

savagegoose, on 09 February 2012 - 08:42 AM, said:

how about agents get together and start a mortgage fund that loans THEIR OWN MONEY OUT at lower rates.maybe they can move their super money into mortgage backed instruments.

Now THAT, sir, is a brilliant idea!

[booboo]

Anyone with a Dr Ando translator handy? (Bolding mine.)

From http://smh.domain.co...0217-1te62.html

Quote

The guide shows that the median house price in the suburb that made Noeline Donaher famous rose 18 per cent last year, which Dr Wilson said could have been slightly inflated due to the lower number of sales last year. ''But it's still revealing an increase in demand for properties in that area in terms of price growth.''

Er, WTF?

[zaph]

booboo, on 17 February 2012 - 10:30 PM, said:

Anyone with a Dr Ando translator handy? (Bolding mine.)

From http://smh.domain.co...0217-1te62.html



Er, WTF?

i entered it into my translator and it came back with "prices to the moon" so i tried entering some other sentences.

here's the results:
i like apples - price growth this year will exceed last year at around 10%
interest rates - high yields
recession - property doubles every 7 years.

[booboo]

I bought the weekend SMH today, and I reckon that Dr Ando's rubbish column and his smarmy, smiling mug must be worse for APM than not having it there. Let's look at his most recent column about Sydney, online at: http://smh.domain.co...0217-1tcju.html

Let's look at this bit:

Quote

The state's housing supply and demand imbalance continues to provide the property market with the prospect of upward pressure on prices and rents.

Bureau of Statistics data released this week reveals the surge in home loans approved for owner-occupiers continued in December, driven by large numbers of first-home buyers. The number of home loans approved for first-home buyers in December jumped 8 per cent to 4280. This was the highest monthly figure recorded since October 2009.

The number of first-home owner loans approved in the four months to December 2011 was 4724 more, or 52.2 per cent higher, than for the same period the year before.

Advertisement: Story continues belowIn total, an extra $4.7 billion in owner-occupied housing loans was approved in 2011 compared with the previous year. Surely that is good news for the banks.

So he talks about a FHB spike at the end of year, as a positive sign, or to quote "the prospect of upward pressure on prices and rents".

You'd think that an "analysis" from a PhD in economics would state why there was a FHB surge. Dr Ando conveniently ignores the withdrawal of the stamp duty exemption on established properties for FHB, and how that brought forward demand and what effects it would have into the next year. Instead he tries to disingenuously infer that it is good for the market, going forward.

Two things of interest in that extra $4.7bn in home loans he states, as well. One, how much was refi? Two, how much due to the extra FHBs, including some knock-on effects? Doesn't sound so impressive now...

Oh, and how is writing more home loans good for the banks, if the most recently written home loans are not profitable for the bank?

Just why do APM bother with this muppet's ugly mug and column if it makes them look like a bunch of amateurs only capable of analysing the market from one point of view?

[muzza]

booboo, on 18 February 2012 - 05:11 AM, said:

Just why do APM bother with this muppet's ugly mug and column if it makes them look like a bunch of amateurs only capable of analysing the market from one point of view?

...and why the hell does the SMH bother. It makes them look as if they have no interest in journalistic credibility and are interested only in talking up their own business. Very disappointing !

[booboo]

A bit of the old "if house prices fall more people will buy them, making them increase again" logic. Love it.

Also love how they must always stick up the top performing suburbs, even if it has an article about rises or falls.