[Mr Medved]

zaph, on 18 April 2011 - 08:00 AM, said:

hose rising costs have coincided with median household savings for the period falling to $7215 compared with $9238 in the fourth quarter of last year.

I find that hard to believe. I would have expected much lower. I can't believe the median household is saving 30k a year. If that is true, what do we have to worry about?

[sydney3000]

Mr Medved, on 18 April 2011 - 12:46 PM, said:

I find that hard to believe. I would have expected much lower. I can't believe the median household is saving 30k a year. If that is true, what do we have to worry about?

I think the median household saving is the total amount in possession and not the total amount added per period. If they count mortgage payments as saving then it could be the latter and it is heavily tilted due to two-income households.

This post has been edited by sydney3000: 18 April 2011 - 08:18 PM

[tor]

sydney3000, on 18 April 2011 - 08:16 PM, said:

I think the median household saving is the total amount in possession and not the total amount added per period. If they count mortgage payments as saving then it could be the latter and it is heavily tilted due to two-income households.

And if you had a mortgage then you would be insane (or really good) to invest anywhere else. Off the top of my head the base payments on a 300K mortgage are about 4K per month minus 1K for interest, so about 30K per year, mybe 25.

From memory the average (or median or something) PPOR mortgage was in the realm of 300K and I think that was for a third of the population.

In context I think reducing debt can be counted as saving can't it?

[booboo]

booboo, on 18 April 2011 - 03:56 AM, said:

Meanwhile, Dr Andrew Wilson manages to avoid mentioning those "rising intesterest rates", despite that big fat graphic in the middle of the article that plainly says "53%". And to top it off, it claims it "includes mid-week auctions". Now I'm not saying that he's lying with hose figures, but, well...

Er, that should be "clearance rates". My hastily written rants are rather error-prone, and I don't have the time currently to proof read that. Ah, well.

Interesting to also note that APM now have some of their spruiking articles in their own blog rather than as "Domain news". I guess Dr Ando now can guilt-free write his rubbish in the blog section (where that much criticised pearler of an effort from last week is, BTW).

Quote

In context I think reducing debt can be counted as saving can't it?

I believe so. The savings rate is actually calculated completely separately from debt repayments/obligations (they are not included at all), I think, so disleveraging will, in fact, look like increased savings - which is what has been happening recently. The recent rise in living costs is what I think has taken away from the savings rates.

[zaph]

tor, on 18 April 2011 - 08:47 PM, said:

And if you had a mortgage then you would be insane (or really good) to invest anywhere else. Off the top of my head the base payments on a 300K mortgage are about 4K per month minus 1K for interest, so about 30K per year, mybe 25.

From memory the average (or median or something) PPOR mortgage was in the realm of 300K and I think that was for a third of the population.

In context I think reducing debt can be counted as saving can't it?

300k, 30 year p&I at a decent rate is around 2k per month repayments ATM. about 250 off the principle pm. "saving" around 3k pa.

if you count paying down principle as savings.

[The Claw]

When I google Dr Andrew Wilson this thread comes up at the bottom of the first page.

I'm not sure if google gives the same results to all people.

[Mr Medved]

The Claw, on 19 April 2011 - 11:25 AM, said:

When I google Dr Andrew Wilson this thread comes up at the bottom of the first page.

I'm not sure if google gives the same results to all people.

Top ten hit for me.

[Peachy]

The Claw, on 19 April 2011 - 11:25 AM, said:

When I google Dr Andrew Wilson this thread comes up at the bottom of the first page.

I'm not sure if google gives the same results to all people.

That's gold. What do I do to promote it in the rankings?

[tor]

zaph, on 19 April 2011 - 08:36 AM, said:

300k, 30 year p&I at a decent rate is around 2k per month repayments ATM. about 250 off the principle pm. "saving" around 3k pa.

if you count paying down principle as savings.

I think mine is a 25 yr but I probably don't have a decent rate

Paying down the principle counts as saving _once_ you have the debt I figure. People could instead go interest only which would be the principle payments available for spending.

If you don't have the debt then getting a loan is not saving obviously.

[Dose]

SMH: Home Prices Decline Nationally: APM

Quote

APM senior economist Andrew Wilson said softening house prices were a "hangover" from strong price growth in 2009 and 2010, driven by record activity from first home buyers."Although price growth has been subdued in both houses and units through the first part of 2011, early signs are emerging of stabilisation and recovery in most capital cities," Dr Wilson said

"...emerging stabilisation..."

[zaph]

Dose, on 28 April 2011 - 01:17 AM, said:

SMH: Home Prices Decline Nationally: APM


"...emerging stabilisation..."

what exactly are the 'early signs of stabilisation and recovery' doctor?

is that that most capital cities are now falling, including those that hadn't fallen at all? is that those that have been falling for a few quarters are continuing to fall?

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Quote

."Although price growth has been subdued in both houses and units through the first part of 2011, early signs are emerging of stabilisation and recovery in most capital cities," Dr Wilson said

When I reverse down the driveway from now on I'll call it 'subduing' down the driveway.

4 polished turds for 'stabilisation and recovery' call.

[savagegoose]

ummm apart from having links to the page all over the net, search and click the page link by unique users.
i found us at top of 2nd page.

ermmm sounds like he went to same school of BS as bernanke. listed to half of his 1st news conference. figured not much going to happen.,
an end to QE2 without a transition period to lower spending? yeah right look forward to the recession we had to avoid part 3

[tom]

zaph, on 28 April 2011 - 04:16 AM, said:

what exactly are the 'early signs of stabilisation and recovery' doctor?

is that that most capital cities are now falling, including those that hadn't fallen at all? is that those that have been falling for a few quarters are continuing to fall?

I guess the doctor is right in that you cannot have a sustainable housing market in this country till prices are at sustainable levels. Every quarter of falls we get brings us one quarter closer to a market which is sustainable in the long term.

So the early signs of stabilisation are that prices are falling to sustainable levels.

Of course I do not think that is really what he meant at all. His expectation or at least the expectation he would like to project on the Australian public is that prices are about to turn.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Quote

IPSWICH house prices have bucked national trends and significantly increased their value during the past three months, despite thousands of homes being wrecked in January’s flood.

The median house price in Ipswich has risen 3.4 per cent in the first quarter of this year to $331,000, up from $320,000 at the end of 2010.

The figures were released yesterday in the Australian Property Monitors’ March quarterly report.

The increase comes despite thousands of Ipswich homes being swallowed by floodwater in January, many of which remain mud-filled shells.

Australian Property Monitors senior economist Andrew Wilson said the price increase showed how resilient and community-minded Ipswich people were.

“The figures are surprising. People would have expected a small downturn in price but the increase reflects the resilience in the Ipswich community,” Mr Wilson said.

“There is a lot of growth in Ipswich and the floods have not stopped that.”

http://www.qt.com.au...perty-monitors/

[cobran20]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 02 May 2011 - 12:28 AM, said:

http://www.qt.com.au...perty-monitors/

Perhaps there is alluvial gold to be found in the mud?!

[booboo]

In Dr Andrew Wilson's weekly Sydney spruikfest he actually admits prices dropped - after claiming they were flat in the title. His case of double-think seems to be increasing by the week.

Quote

The national median house price decreased by 0.6 per cent during the quarter to leave annual growth at just 0.2 per cent.

Of course, Brisbane was due to those pesky floods again. Not that it matters that the Brisbane falls were a trend prior to the floods.

Quote

Brisbane house prices fell by 2 per cent, indicating the ongoing weakness of that market, compounded by the added impact of the January floods.

And Sydney? Falling numbers of sales, falling clearance rates? Why, it's a recovery!

Quote

The Sydney median house price fell marginally, by 0.4 per cent, displaying some resilience in the face of adverse market conditions. Sydney unit prices also declined, by 0.7 per cent. The Sydney median house price now stands at $643,713, with units at $439,197.

Sydney continues to exhibit a durable housing market and although there has been a subdued start to the year, there are early signs of a recovery, particularly in the inner west.

Expect Sydney house prices to resume modest growth from the middle of the year.

I wondered what "modest growth" is. After consulting the Spruik Edition of the Dr Andrew Wilson dictionary, it read:

Quote

Modest Growth

Growth anywhere from soft to less than trend; that is, less than doubling 7 to 10 years. In numbers terms, from -3% to 7%. Used typically to describe any growth outside of a boom (that is, house growth is either To The Moon or Modest).

See: To The Moon; 1 + 1 = 3; The Suckers Will Believe Anything.

[booboo]

Good to see Dr Ando understands the difference between demand and supply in Victoria.

Quote

Demand for inner-city apartments continues to surge, with 1190 approved for building so far this year, a rise of 64 per cent over the same period last year.

More dwellings = more demand. Higher immigration = more demand. More births = more demand. More spruiking = higher demand. More credit growth = higher demand. More butterflies farting in the Amazon = higher demand. Right, got it.

[booboo]

A comment following the latest Dr Andrew Wilson column has highlighted a nice bit of doublethink when compared to his previous Sydney column. Furthermore, Dr Andrew Wilsom continues the doublethink, by penning columns that appear bearish at first glance, but slip in positive nuggets that paint the housing market in a positive shade of spotty and firey Vindaloo light turd brown. Truly the David LeReah of his times.

To whit, the said previous Sydney column was titled thusly:

Quote

Prices are falling - some suburbs still hot

And the good Dr went on, in true 1984 Miniplenty style, to proudly the top-10 suburbs that "have continued to perform strongly despite the weaker overall market". Of course, with some of those suburbs supposedly up by over 30% in a year (which seriously sounds dubious, knowing some of those suburbs - I am guessing it's a sample issue), don't tell Dr Wilson how badly the rest of the market must have performed!

The said latest Dr Andrew Wilson column is titled thusly:

Quote

A slight hiccup, but house prices still on the up

So, a slight hiccup might be falling prices, but yet the prices are still rising? Clear as mud? Good. Of course, Dr Wilson also dazzles us with his logic, such as implying that because Sydney is more expensive (and has more million dollar suburbs), it has a stronger market and won't fall. And don't forget the not backed up assertion at the end:

Quote

Expect Sydney houses and units to remain prohibitively expensive compared with other capitals, particularly as it clearly has the best prospects of a sustained recovery in prices from the current subdued market conditions being experienced in all Australian capital city housing markets.

"...[Sydney] clearly has the best prospects of a sustained recovery." Wise words for us all.

Oh, and can someone please tell me where Dr Ando's rising prices in the second half of the year have gone?

[tom]

I think relative to other capitals Sydney will outperform.

That said buying a stockpile of steaming horse manure may still outperform Sydney property in the coming 3 years.