[cobran20]

This goes against the commodities boom story we're being fed by the government and the media. But I'm sure those future projection are correct and the discounting mechanism of stock markets is wrong!

China's iron demand dips

Quote

FORTESCUE Metals Group nearly doubled its full year net profit, but noted a dip in iron ore demand from China as the Asian nation tightens credit.

New chief executive Nev Power says no shipments to China have been deferred but demand had recently cooled off.

Steel mills had become "a little more short sighted in terms of their future buying", but this had not softened iron ore prices.

The average iron ore sales price achieved by Fortescue in 2010/11 including its freight costs was $US149 ($A143.84) per dry metric tonne, up 68 per cent from the prior financial year.

"There's no question that the tightening of credit in China has started to moderate demand in a small way," Mr Power said on Friday after the miner delivered a 76 per cent jump in full year net profit to $US1.02 billion.

"Once the inflation numbers in China are back under control, the underlying demand is very strong and that would pick straight up again."

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 21 August 2011 - 04:36 AM, said:

This goes against the commodities boom story we're being fed by the government and the media. But I'm sure those future projection are correct and the discounting mechanism of stock markets is wrong!

China's iron demand dips

Don't worry, it's only a temporary blip. The boom will continue as normal!

Iron ore crash

[zaph]

This can't be good for demand of our rocks

http://youtu.be/2ShZ5-dJp8k

This post has been edited by zaph: 26 October 2011 - 01:22 AM

[wulfgar]

http://www.smh.com.a...?skin=text-only

Quote

Prices for immediate delivery of benchmark iron ore into China fell to$US120 a tonne on Friday, down from $US181 that the product wasfetching on September 7.

Now that's a haircut!

[cobran20]

wulfgar, on 02 November 2011 - 03:00 AM, said:

http://www.smh.com.a...?skin=text-only



Now that's a haircut!

By the time the mining tax becomes law, the government will get a fraction of what it could have raked in if it had been introduced at the beginning rather than at the end of the commodities boom. That money could have built a serious Future Fund.

[steveno]

cobran20, on 02 November 2011 - 03:10 AM, said:

... That money could have built a serious Future Fund bubble inflating House Vendor boost.

Fixed it, because with our current captive government that this would have happened.

[Mr Medved]

cobran20, on 02 November 2011 - 03:10 AM, said:

By the time the mining tax becomes law, the government will get a fraction of what it could have raked in if it had been introduced at the beginning rather than at the end of the commodities boom. That money could have built a serious Future Fund.

To paraphrase Hugh Hendry, if you don't know who the dumb money is then you're it! This may be demonstrating that government is the ultimate in dumb money.

[cobran20]

MB: Iron ore weakens again

[cobran20]

Will it hit new lows? The pattern from the October bottom is similar to what equities have done. But iron ore has broken down. So the question is iron ore a leading indicator?

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 14 February 2012 - 09:25 PM, said:

Will it hit new lows? The pattern from the October bottom is similar to what equities have done. But iron ore has broken down. So the question is iron ore a leading indicator?

Yep, there are some clear similarities from October 2011 onwards!

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[cobran20]

cobran20, on 14 February 2012 - 09:25 PM, said:

Will it hit new lows? The pattern from the October bottom is similar to what equities have done. But iron ore has broken down. So the question is iron ore a leading indicator?

The above chart is doing the rounds!

[tom]

cobran20, on 02 November 2011 - 03:10 AM, said:

By the time the mining tax becomes law, the government will get a fraction of what it could have raked in if it had been introduced at the beginning rather than at the end of the commodities boom. That money could have built a serious Future Fund.

The irony is that for years miners have wanted the government to have skin in the game to provide incentive to them around regulation. Presumably the counter point to this would be a reduction in royalites for them.

Of course when prices are such that they are it is only natural that the miners prefer the idea of per tonne tax rates rather than a share of the spoils. As you say the government is stitching itself up big time.

[cobran20]

Can you spot when Ben's loose monetary policy began to impact commodity prices?!

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[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 16 February 2012 - 04:01 AM, said:

Can you spot when Ben's loose monetary policy began to impact commodity prices?!

Well up until 2008 the Chinese printed 11% more currency per annum. My surprise was in their response to the GFC, they ratcheted up the pace of printing to 16% p.a.

China was granted some latitude by the international community as it made up for a century of decline, but it was expected that they would float their currency and fully join the international community. But especial the last 5 years of speculation has now made China a bomb ready to explode. It is very unlikely now they will float their currency.