[tor]

As I am sure many of you know the GFC was a bumper 2 years for me and everyone I knew. We worked our arses off and there was no shortage of cash in the IT consulting industry or in the industries that I was consulting into (services, manufacturing, medical, legal, banking etc).

Typically September / October are my money months where I work 100+ hours a week and even then can't come close to meeting demand, usually I am completing stuff in December that people wanted in September. I normally work on a 3 or 4 week pipeline. In late July / August I will have pending purchase orders and proposals which fill 80 hrs a week. Some fall over, most come through, ad hoc stuff fills the rest.

We are now one week into September and all I can say thank the sweet lord of cynicism that sent me off pay rise hunting a few months back. I negotiated a deal where one of my primary customers pays me 40 hrs a week regardless of work they throw my way (that way they don't have to pay higher rates). They, in the past, have accounted for some 80% of my work in these months and currently they are sending me close to zero. The only work I do for them now is self sourced (I have a good relationship with many of their clients and remove the sales people from the equation).

I got a bit worried and mailed a few other people in the IT services game. Most of them are sitting on their hands at the moment. Some of the larger IT companies in Australia have most of their team testing the internet still works (sitting at their desk browsing game sites).

I know the public servants amongst us have had a bit of stress over the past few years but I think that public service cuts are way behind the reality of the world because they are policy driven which lags public sentiment and so on. For the private workers what are you seeing on the ground now?

I guess I am getting edgy because of things like Damelian closing, gold hitting a new high and not being mentioned on the news, work drying up and so on. All stuff which could easily be an over reaction on my behalf.

I feel like the SHTF moment is close and this time I am not going risky.

[wim]

tor, on 06 September 2011 - 08:10 AM, said:

As I am sure many of you know the GFC was a bumper 2 years for me and everyone I knew. We worked our arses off and there was no shortage of cash in the IT consulting industry or in the industries that I was consulting into (services, manufacturing, medical, legal, banking etc).

Typically September / October are my money months where I work 100+ hours a week and even then can't come close to meeting demand, usually I am completing stuff in December that people wanted in September. I normally work on a 3 or 4 week pipeline. In late July / August I will have pending purchase orders and proposals which fill 80 hrs a week. Some fall over, most come through, ad hoc stuff fills the rest.

We are now one week into September and all I can say thank the sweet lord of cynicism that sent me off pay rise hunting a few months back. I negotiated a deal where one of my primary customers pays me 40 hrs a week regardless of work they throw my way (that way they don't have to pay higher rates). They, in the past, have accounted for some 80% of my work in these months and currently they are sending me close to zero. The only work I do for them now is self sourced (I have a good relationship with many of their clients and remove the sales people from the equation).

I got a bit worried and mailed a few other people in the IT services game. Most of them are sitting on their hands at the moment. Some of the larger IT companies in Australia have most of their team testing the internet still works (sitting at their desk browsing game sites).

I know the public servants amongst us have had a bit of stress over the past few years but I think that public service cuts are way behind the reality of the world because they are policy driven which lags public sentiment and so on. For the private workers what are you seeing on the ground now?

I guess I am getting edgy because of things like Damelian closing, gold hitting a new high and not being mentioned on the news, work drying up and so on. All stuff which could easily be an over reaction on my behalf.

I feel like the SHTF moment is close and this time I am not going risky.

Thanks for the update Tor. The SAP world still seems to be okay with a lot of work in the resources sector. BHP $500 million rollout is still going strong. Rio is ramping up development. Energy sector in Victoria is quite solid. 5 year project kicking off for Melbourne Water in oracle. NSW utilities seems okay with stuff looking promising for Sydney water and IBM winning the smart-grid utilities project.

The program I'm working on is meant to be good until mid 2013. Went from SAP project one to project one enhancement to project two (go-live Dec this year). Project three is in blueprint (go-live mid next year) and project four was announced as planned last week. Still potentially have a project five following that, but it hasn't been announced. So far I've been there over 2 years, so quite happy.

Our project is CAPEX and budget approval has been given, some stuff is regulatory and some written into contracts so feeling fairly safe.

The newspaper reads like stuff isn't going right. Hope things look up for you. Must admit I like the idea of getting paid but not needing to work.

[staringclown]

SAP - Salary Advancement Program.

We are busy because we are understaffed at the moment. 4 vacant positions in a 10 person team. Java skills and IBM cots stuff (datapower, webseal, tivoli and websphere (WAS/WMB/WDI) are required but its hard to attract permanents as the pay is not that great. The insourcing mooted by the Gershon review is proving to be difficult for the same reason. There's a few projects going that I'm aware of. EHealth is kicking off. Quite a few departments are conducting way overdue tech refreshes.

I get the impression that there is a move in the security space at least to move across government on cots products. The business of government is not producing software so configuration/integration and some limited customisation will become more the norm rather than development projects. I'm doing all in my power to skill up.

One of the reasons I cower in the public service (rather than contracting) is that I got caught up in the first dot com bust post 2000. Had to go back to uni and (almost) complete a masters to get a job. Ms clown had 10 years experience (COOL:gen) and sailed through the whole affair unscathed. I figure good IT people will usually survive a downturn. Competition will increase but the industry will keep moving. Maybe with pay cuts (or no rises) however it's an essential industry. No going backwards now.

I have no clear view of the rest of the economy (as you rightly suggest). There is no recession in Canberra. RE prices are still rising. The economy is doing reasonably well. Personally I think the ACT should secede from the rest of Australia and leave their economic problems behind.

[urchin]

staringclown, on 06 September 2011 - 11:01 AM, said:

Personally I think the ACT should secede from the rest of Australia

i suspect a large segment of the australian population shares that view

[tor]

staringclown, on 06 September 2011 - 11:01 AM, said:

SAP - Salary Advancement Program.

hehehe

[Turkey]

I have my Seek filter set up to e-mail me SQL job alerts (pun intended ... you have to be a SQL geek to get it) and it has died in the arse over the past month.

My guess is that we are down to about a third of the usual average # of new jobs.

[ponder]

'Contractors at state's IT agency bringing home a Premier salary'

Linky

Comments are interesting. This one sums up my thoughts quite nicely:

Quote

Lets compare skill sets...
Ok, just pay them their money LOL

[ummester]

In my workspace, there has always been an underlying desire to get contractors (IT & electrical mainly) either disbanded if they are no good or rolled into the PS entirely if they are any good. Lately, that desire is more like a push, so a kind of tipping point with paying ridiculous contract amounts may be reached.

I personally think, as management gets younger, there will be an increased understanding of which contractors are needed specialists in particular fields and which are not.

[Easy Tiger]

I'm a blue collar worker in a factory (I won't say which because it is a very well known brand). Industry is food.

We're going great guns and have been for quite a while now. The boss doubled the size of the factory last christmas and it's reached capacity constraints *again*. Our suppliers are having problems meeting our requirements. You'd think if you ordered so much that the supplier struggled to meet your demand you could dictate some terms (like pallet height) but noooo, not our purchasing officer . I'm working 6 days a week which is good for the overtime but kinda sucky for the work / life balance. All my OT this financial year is going into my FHSA so that's one thing I suppose.

My mate works in a steel factory. They slowed down earlier in the year and OT dried up but they're back to unlimited OT and 6 day weeks. Personally I don't see that continuing but I've been wrong so many times before on so many different topics you'd be best betting against what I think

Basically, everyone I know is working hard and there seems to be no end to the good times ahead. Maybe this time it is different?


EDIT TO ADD

All the truck drivers I speak to have work coming out of their ears

This post has been edited by Easy Tiger: 12 September 2011 - 05:20 AM

[Ruffian]

Easy Tiger, on 12 September 2011 - 05:19 AM, said:

All the truck drivers I speak to have work coming out of their ears

Hmm, interesting as I have recently heard a couple of farmers say they are either sending their sons to drive trucks, or going to do it themselves. The money is better, much better, than farming.

Which means that the stuff going into your factory will have to be coming from elsewhere, as we won't be growing it here...


As to the general feel of my industry I could not say. I hear rumors that others have plenty of work but the quango I work for is in a death spiral, having 'right-sized' to below critical mass, to the extent that there is no-one left to do the actual work anymore.

So... anyone need any social research done? Special deal on semi-structured interviews, two for the price of one...

[staringclown]

Easy Tiger, on 12 September 2011 - 05:19 AM, said:

I'm a blue collar worker in a factory (I won't say which because it is a very well known brand). Industry is food.

We're going great guns and have been for quite a while now. The boss doubled the size of the factory last christmas and it's reached capacity constraints *again*. Our suppliers are having problems meeting our requirements. You'd think if you ordered so much that the supplier struggled to meet your demand you could dictate some terms (like pallet height) but noooo, not our purchasing officer . I'm working 6 days a week which is good for the overtime but kinda sucky for the work / life balance. All my OT this financial year is going into my FHSA so that's one thing I suppose.

My mate works in a steel factory. They slowed down earlier in the year and OT dried up but they're back to unlimited OT and 6 day weeks. Personally I don't see that continuing but I've been wrong so many times before on so many different topics you'd be best betting against what I think

Basically, everyone I know is working hard and there seems to be no end to the good times ahead. Maybe this time it is different?


EDIT TO ADD

All the truck drivers I speak to have work coming out of their ears

There was an ABS release last week and it said the people were generally better off now than six years ago. Much ire was evident in the comments about the story. Some claimed they were worse off. Some better off. The wage rise figures did seem a bit implausible but the ABS were using aggregate stats. So I suspect wages were boosted in the mining industry and probably had an effect on the aggregate figures. If it's not a rude question tiger have you're wages risen above inflation over the last decade? Are you better off now than six years ago?

[Easy Tiger]

staringclown, on 15 September 2011 - 11:23 AM, said:

There was an ABS release last week and it said the people were generally better off now than six years ago. Much ire was evident in the comments about the story. Some claimed they were worse off. Some better off. The wage rise figures did seem a bit implausible but the ABS were using aggregate stats. So I suspect wages were boosted in the mining industry and probably had an effect on the aggregate figures. If it's not a rude question tiger have you're wages risen above inflation over the last decade? Are you better off now than six years ago?

My wage has only risen by whatever the minimum wage rose by. My wife hasn't had a pay rise in 5 years. I was doing crazy (for me) amounts of overtime but I sat down and worked out that it just wasn't worth sacrificing my health and sanity. I'm spending more on food but that is a conscious choice in that my wife and I eat organic food (real milk $5 for 2 litres .... the taste is phenomenal). Utilities are out of control but even if they doubled I wouldn't be in trouble.

In short - am I better off now than six years ago. Yes, but no thanks to price gouging governments (all level) and sub-inflation pay rises,

[staringclown]

Easy Tiger, on 16 September 2011 - 10:22 AM, said:

My wage has only risen by whatever the minimum wage rose by. My wife hasn't had a pay rise in 5 years. I was doing crazy (for me) amounts of overtime but I sat down and worked out that it just wasn't worth sacrificing my health and sanity. I'm spending more on food but that is a conscious choice in that my wife and I eat organic food (real milk $5 for 2 litres .... the taste is phenomenal). Utilities are out of control but even if they doubled I wouldn't be in trouble.

In short - am I better off now than six years ago. Yes, but no thanks to price gouging governments (all level) and sub-inflation pay rises,

Yeah I generally have to change jobs to get a pay rise above inflation.

I'm with you on the work-life balance and the food quality.

[ummester]

staringclown, on 17 September 2011 - 12:40 AM, said:

Yeah I generally have to change jobs to get a pay rise above inflation.

My latest workplace agreement (not agreed on as yet:)) had inflation increments that were below inflation. After a negative vote (by the dept, not actually me) I was sent a 'random' questionnaire on what was wrong with the last agreement and offered that perhaps some kind of explanation should be given as to why an inflation adjusted wage component is below official inflation figures and why such components can't be back payed, seeing as inflation itself doesn't stop and wait. I like to hope that some-one will read it.

I think wage and condition disputes are going to get kind of messy going forward and only forced redundancy of the dead wood is going to free up the funds to keep worthwhile staff happy. Could almost be time to join the union.

This post has been edited by ummester: 17 September 2011 - 08:12 AM

[staringclown]

ummester, on 17 September 2011 - 08:07 AM, said:

My latest workplace agreement (not agreed on as yet:)) had inflation increments that were below inflation. After a negative vote (by the dept, not actually me) I was sent a 'random' questionnaire on what was wrong with the last agreement and offered that perhaps some kind of explanation should be given as to why an inflation adjusted wage component is below official inflation figures and why such components can't be back payed, seeing as inflation itself doesn't stop and wait. I like to hope that some-one will read it.

I think wage and condition disputes are going to get kind of messy going forward and only forced redundancy of the dead wood is going to free up the funds to keep worthwhile staff happy. Could almost be time to join the union.

We rejected the first one for 3% plus a bunch of lost conditions. We now keep the conditions and have some improvements apparently. The new offer came out friday afternoon so I haven't had a chance to read it yet. The union (I am a member. ) are recommending we accept. They are front loading the increases which are about the same as the first offer (3.5%) over two years into 5% and 2%. My comments about inflation in reply to the first offer were similar to your own.

Might take a change of government to shift any dead wood.

[ummester]

you're probably right about the dead wood clown. the gillard team still lacks balls


I can assume we don't work for the same dept - as i haven't seen agreement v2 yet:) and i was working late friday. unless the union sent you an early copy...


I honestly don't know if our take 2 will make it through - whatever it has in it. Apparently our agreement is the best the secretary can afford - which i read into as the govt really isn't going to throw any more at it. Thing is, it is departmental amalgamation wage disparity that the 'vibe' of my co-workers leads me to assume is the biggest issue and, unless they actually lower some wages, the maths I've done prove there is no way around it on the current spend. I don't belive wages are allowed to be lowered as part of an agreement, are they?

[Easy Tiger]

My workplace agreement has no provision for pay rises. None whatsoever. I've yet to find a single soul that voted in the affirmative for it but then again it was railroaded through (unmonitored, entire shifts denied the right to vote, blatant lies told by management, did I mention that the counting was unmonitored?)


The quip about "it's who counts the votes that matters" comes to mind

[ummester]

sh*t tiger - I hope you like your job because your conditions sound like they suck.
Mrs ummester is in a similar position - her conditions are crappy. Her bosses are fools that rely on her for everything and take no responsibility for their own mistakes - yea, i know it sounds like the PS on face but the reality is there is nothing she can do about it where at least PSs have half a leg to stand on.I rekon, after working private, public and dabbling with freelance CG work for a while, things break down on average like this.

private - crap conditions but sometimes enjoyable work.

public - seldom enjoyable work but usually good conditions.

self employed - it's what you make it but it's a real risk/reward situation.

me, I'm resigned to being a family man for the next decade or so - until my boys are out on their own - so i'll make the most of good conditions and try to maximise my renumeration in that space. When the boys are off living their own lives, i might be a bit more adventurous with my work choices - if i live that long that is:)

[staringclown]

ummester, on 18 September 2011 - 04:19 AM, said:

you're probably right about the dead wood clown. the gillard team still lacks balls


I can assume we don't work for the same dept - as i haven't seen agreement v2 yet:) and i was working late friday. unless the union sent you an early copy...


I honestly don't know if our take 2 will make it through - whatever it has in it. Apparently our agreement is the best the secretary can afford - which i read into as the govt really isn't going to throw any more at it. Thing is, it is departmental amalgamation wage disparity that the 'vibe' of my co-workers leads me to assume is the biggest issue and, unless they actually lower some wages, the maths I've done prove there is no way around it on the current spend. I don't belive wages are allowed to be lowered as part of an agreement, are they?

The government were capping the rises at 3%. Any additional required productivity rises we were told. Theoretically they could offer pay cuts but like Greece I suspect there would be considerable dissent. We would need to be facing massive problems for it to succeed. You were in the APS during the GFC? Closest I've seen to cuts was then and we were offered 2.0% rises. More likely that rises don't get offered rather than cuts. Natural attrition will be used rather than voluntary redundancies. We will be understaffed (we are now anyway) but this means dead wood gets noticed more. The beauty of natural attrition as opposed to voluntary redundancies is that the dead wood also get old and retire so you get rid of a bigger proportional amount of them.

[staringclown]

Easy Tiger, on 18 September 2011 - 05:28 AM, said:

My workplace agreement has no provision for pay rises. None whatsoever. I've yet to find a single soul that voted in the affirmative for it but then again it was railroaded through (unmonitored, entire shifts denied the right to vote, blatant lies told by management, did I mention that the counting was unmonitored?)


The quip about "it's who counts the votes that matters" comes to mind

Our votes are regulated by the AEC tiger. Any funny business gets noticed tiger. I used to work in various blue collar jobs. I have been sacked from more than one for being a delegate. Even got sacked (well, not renewed) from the APS once for organising the temps to revolt on job security. It didn't work and my overriding memory was being in a room with the regional manager being laughed at by the manager and the temps whom I was trying to organise. I didn't have kids or responsibilities at the time so mobility was relatively easy for me. I understand the same isn't true for other especially those with a mortgage. Like ummester, I hope you enjoy the work. No pay rise means they've got you over a barrel and the overtime costs your employer less as time goes on.

This post has been edited by staringclown: 18 September 2011 - 10:26 AM