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I've been watching the odd episode of Your Money, Your Call over the last month or two. What has caught me with the property edition is the lack of callers and emailers per episde. Now they are lucky to get more than a few per episode, and instead they spend the rest of the time spruiking the market. Tonight was particularly bad, with the usual "experts" - a Century 21 guy (slicked back grey hair, looks a right salesman), Chris Gray and a much subdued guy from RP Data.
Some of the more comical claims tonight were (paraphrasing):
"The auction clearance rates are really in the mid-50s, because on the reported auctions on the day don't include sold after, especially as they are sold in the next week or so". (The RP Data guy let this one through to the keeper, even though he surely must've known it was rubbish.)
"The property market on the TV shows look bad because it's a public sales environment, and no-one likes public speaking so the real buyers stay away."
"The property market is just riding a wave, waiting to go, but the only thing holding it back is all this negative sentiment around."
There was also a bizzarro section where they tried to make more properties for sale (higher listings) a positive thing.
Credit to the RP Data guy, as he didn't say any of the rubbish above, and stayed out of those conversations. It's really quite amazing how they can admit it's bad in one breath, yet then spend the next 10 minutes saying how good it is, and how good it will be.
There was also the usual Chris Gray spiel - don't pay down your debt, instead go interest only, save the difference plus withdraw equity to buy another 2 or 3 properties. He had a pearler where you recommended you argue and take evidence to show valuers (because bank valuations are always "conservative") are wrong, so you can withdraw as much equity as possible to buy those extra places.
BTW, I could tell them why they have so few callers - I can suggest they take a look down column F and column G in this RBA spreadsheet for starters.
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#2
tom 
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Posted 30 September 2011 - 11:47 AM
booboo, on 30 September 2011 - 11:30 AM, said:
"The property market on the TV shows look bad because it's a public sales environment, and no-one likes public speaking so the real buyers stay away."
That is hilarious.
#3
Chimerica
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Posted 01 October 2011 - 06:41 AM
Quote
There was also the usual Chris Gray spiel - don't pay down your debt, instead go interest only, save the difference plus withdraw equity to buy another 2 or 3 properties. He had a pearler where you recommended you argue and take evidence to show valuers (because bank valuations are always "conservative") are wrong, so you can withdraw as much equity as possible to buy those extra places.
Hope this guy is made accountable when things go tits up.
#5
booboo
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Posted 28 November 2011 - 02:51 AM
The Chris Gray Your Money, Your Call property edition from Friday had a golden moment in it.
At the end of the show, Chris Gray asked the "experts" when they predicted for the property market for 2012. All answered "flat", although one shot in a caveat that if IRs were cut greatly, then significant growth can be seen, and the another stuck in a caveat than if could be slightly down. Chris Gray, for the record, also said "flat", but also stuck in an agreement on the point about IR cuts. If Chris Gray is publicly saying flat, what does that say about the market for next year?
Anyway, here's the ironic part. Less than just 10 minutes earlier, one of those same "experts" gave the following anecdote about buying property with your SMSF. A customer in his early 50s asked him (the "expert") about buying property for his SMSF, as he wanted to retired in about 7 years (at the age of 58, if I recall correctly). The example the "expert" gave to the customer, and kindly repeated to us, was the following: buy a place for $650k, and in 6 (yes, that's s-i-x) to 10 years it could (note, he did say "could") double. The rest of the example was eminimently sensible (once you hit a certain age you no longer have to pay income tax on it, so you are free to sell it or do whatever, he actually gave a few good examples); but it was based on the premise of the property doubling in value within that period of time. The irony of the same "expert" giving his prediction of a flat property market in 2012 just a couple minutes later stood out to me like a sore thumb; guess that property better double in 5 to 9 years then, hey?
At the end of the show, Chris Gray asked the "experts" when they predicted for the property market for 2012. All answered "flat", although one shot in a caveat that if IRs were cut greatly, then significant growth can be seen, and the another stuck in a caveat than if could be slightly down. Chris Gray, for the record, also said "flat", but also stuck in an agreement on the point about IR cuts. If Chris Gray is publicly saying flat, what does that say about the market for next year?
Anyway, here's the ironic part. Less than just 10 minutes earlier, one of those same "experts" gave the following anecdote about buying property with your SMSF. A customer in his early 50s asked him (the "expert") about buying property for his SMSF, as he wanted to retired in about 7 years (at the age of 58, if I recall correctly). The example the "expert" gave to the customer, and kindly repeated to us, was the following: buy a place for $650k, and in 6 (yes, that's s-i-x) to 10 years it could (note, he did say "could") double. The rest of the example was eminimently sensible (once you hit a certain age you no longer have to pay income tax on it, so you are free to sell it or do whatever, he actually gave a few good examples); but it was based on the premise of the property doubling in value within that period of time. The irony of the same "expert" giving his prediction of a flat property market in 2012 just a couple minutes later stood out to me like a sore thumb; guess that property better double in 5 to 9 years then, hey?
#6
savagegoose
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Posted 28 November 2011 - 11:21 AM
so no mention of uranium miners maybe doubling in 6 years then? not very fit financial advice really for a SMSF
#7
booboo
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Posted 09 January 2012 - 11:31 PM
Got a few things to add to this thread.
Firstly, next week the Monday edition with Margaret Lomas will have none other than the (completely not) esteemed Dr Ando as a guest. Surely not to be missed!
Secondly, don't know if I mentioned this elsewhere, but I watched the final edition for the year (2011) with Chris Gray. He had two of the contestants from The Renovators as guests. I only watched about 66% of the show as I was flicking channels (and it was freaking boring), but there was not one call while I was watching, and I don't think there was one for the entire show. Very sad.
Thirdly, I watched last night's edition. Margaret Lomas can still rake in the calls it seems. Most of them these days seem to be more of the type of "should I sell now or hold on?". Amazingly, the advice a couple times is to sell, sometimes with a loss. I'll give you a few anecdotes from last night.
Anecdote 1: Guy calls in with a house and land package he bought as an investment in Redbank Plains a couple years ago for $380k. He said it is costing him $200 per week to hold (ouch!). He has been looking at recent sales, it is now probably valued at about $360k (you can't lose on housing!). He wanted to know if he should cut his losses or keep the place. Advice? All three agreed that he should keep it, and it was suggested he over paid for it (rather than it could have actually dropped, like the rest of Brisbane!). Suggested he raise the rent to lose less money - sounded like it's not about the rental market, it's all about what the PI can afford to lose!
Anecdote 2: Guy calls in with an investment in the Gold Coast. He is losing about $10k a year on it, and it has gone down in price, in fact, it's worth less than he owes! Wants to know if he should sell or hold, as the $10k per year could maybe go to something more productive. All agreed he should sell (shock!). They all think the Gold Coast is fairly screwed, and there may be some brief support from the Commonwealth Games, so he should sell ASAP to take advantage of that "positive" sentiment, and invest elsewhere. Their opinion was that the games may provide a temporary bounce or support, but afterwards property would fall back to where it was previously, and then be subdued as there would've likely to have been over development.
Anecdote 3: An email was sent in wondering if they should buy in 2012, or wait until the Euro debt crisis is resolved. All agreed that you should always BUY NOW! Margaret Lomas advised to catch a falling knife - she thinks it's better to buy in a depressed market than in a booming one. Another guy claims that it's all about time in the market and you should always buy now.
Generally, it's interesting to see that most of the calls are now about "should I sell?", rather than "where should I buy?", which used to dominate the show. Looking forward to Dr Ando's appearance!
Firstly, next week the Monday edition with Margaret Lomas will have none other than the (completely not) esteemed Dr Ando as a guest. Surely not to be missed!
Secondly, don't know if I mentioned this elsewhere, but I watched the final edition for the year (2011) with Chris Gray. He had two of the contestants from The Renovators as guests. I only watched about 66% of the show as I was flicking channels (and it was freaking boring), but there was not one call while I was watching, and I don't think there was one for the entire show. Very sad.
Thirdly, I watched last night's edition. Margaret Lomas can still rake in the calls it seems. Most of them these days seem to be more of the type of "should I sell now or hold on?". Amazingly, the advice a couple times is to sell, sometimes with a loss. I'll give you a few anecdotes from last night.
Anecdote 1: Guy calls in with a house and land package he bought as an investment in Redbank Plains a couple years ago for $380k. He said it is costing him $200 per week to hold (ouch!). He has been looking at recent sales, it is now probably valued at about $360k (you can't lose on housing!). He wanted to know if he should cut his losses or keep the place. Advice? All three agreed that he should keep it, and it was suggested he over paid for it (rather than it could have actually dropped, like the rest of Brisbane!). Suggested he raise the rent to lose less money - sounded like it's not about the rental market, it's all about what the PI can afford to lose!
Anecdote 2: Guy calls in with an investment in the Gold Coast. He is losing about $10k a year on it, and it has gone down in price, in fact, it's worth less than he owes! Wants to know if he should sell or hold, as the $10k per year could maybe go to something more productive. All agreed he should sell (shock!). They all think the Gold Coast is fairly screwed, and there may be some brief support from the Commonwealth Games, so he should sell ASAP to take advantage of that "positive" sentiment, and invest elsewhere. Their opinion was that the games may provide a temporary bounce or support, but afterwards property would fall back to where it was previously, and then be subdued as there would've likely to have been over development.
Anecdote 3: An email was sent in wondering if they should buy in 2012, or wait until the Euro debt crisis is resolved. All agreed that you should always BUY NOW! Margaret Lomas advised to catch a falling knife - she thinks it's better to buy in a depressed market than in a booming one. Another guy claims that it's all about time in the market and you should always buy now.
Generally, it's interesting to see that most of the calls are now about "should I sell?", rather than "where should I buy?", which used to dominate the show. Looking forward to Dr Ando's appearance!
This post has been edited by booboo: 09 January 2012 - 11:32 PM
#10
zaph
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Posted 16 January 2012 - 06:52 AM
booboo, on 16 January 2012 - 06:40 AM, said:
Quick reminder about Dr Ando tonight. I hope not to miss it; it will be a battle royale with the gf for the remote tonight!
can you tape it (oh what an old fashioned term!) and someone digitally post it. some of us are property owe-ers and can't afford cable. lol
#11
booboo
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Posted 16 January 2012 - 07:19 AM
Sadly, I can't. I don't have anything set up to be able to do it 
I don't have the Foxtel iQ, and my PVR is only connected to the normal aerial.
Oh, crap! It was on last Wednesday, not tonight! I missed it too. You will have to grab it from the podcast:
http://www.skynews.c.../programs/ymyc/
http://www.skynews.c...ds/yourcall.xml
<-- Dr Ando podcast.
I don't have the Foxtel iQ, and my PVR is only connected to the normal aerial.Oh, crap! It was on last Wednesday, not tonight! I missed it too. You will have to grab it from the podcast:
http://www.skynews.c.../programs/ymyc/
http://www.skynews.c...ds/yourcall.xml
<-- Dr Ando podcast.
#12
booboo
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Posted 17 January 2012 - 05:04 AM
To be honest, it's a bit of a boring listen. And I wasted my time writing the below...
Times to jump to for Dr Ando, if you're feeling a little masochistic (most interesting is at 34:20, his predictions for 2012):
3:20, 5:45, 6:50, 8:05 (on Blacktown), 14:05, 19:40 (on a studio apartment, which he didn't know the problems of bank financing for), 24:55 (on Central Coast, where he's not bullish for once), 29:25 (on Melbourne), 31:45 (on granny flats, don't bother), 34:20 (predictions on 2012), 38:35 (on Glenn Innes; Dr Ando is bullish on Orange); 43:15 (on Melbourne again); 48:45 (on Perth)
Dr Ando is bullish on economic growth for 2012 which will drive the housing market, in fact he appears bullish on nearly everything property. Spring was a flop because of struggling economic growth (which they got wrong). He loves Perth, Brisbane, Canberra...
Guy ringing up about Blacktown looking for high cap growth and rent. Dr Ando is bullish on Blacktown as he reckons people move there for "lifestyle reasons". Guess someone should check SQM stock on market to get an idea of the capital growth, although the vacancy rates are low at 1%, the Western Sydney vacancy rates are at 5%.
From the other panelist:
What kind of attitude is that? An investment that is making you money (instead of costing money which is written off on tax) is a problem? The way property investors think is amazing.
A guy in Brunswick, Melbourne bough a 2-bed apartment at the peak in 2010 for $525k and he's concerned about a potential over supply in the area. Looks like he could be in trouble to me, panelists think he's fine and he should hold, Dr Ando even thinks it's a good investment. Only Margaret Lomas thinks it wasn't a good investment and maybe he overpaid, and it wasn't a good investment (likely no capital growth for 3 years), but he should still hold. Later on someone rang about selling another Melbourne apartment because their yield was so low, once again they were told not to sell by the panelists, Margaret Lomas broke ranks and said that they could sell and look for a better property.
Dr Ando thinks that 2012 will be a year of recovery for the housing market. Says that 2012 was "subdued". Perth was worse than they thought. Sydney stood up (interesting that "stood up" means that it was practically flat!). He thinks that Perth and Brisbane will be good performers as they come off a low base. Sydney and Canberra will be solid. Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart will move sideways. I reckon Dr Ando will be pretty wrong, as always. Dr Ando also reckons that Perth is the best market in 2012, particularly up to $700k - $800k.
The other panelist was "optimistic" and thinks that IR reductions will bring people into the market. She did, of course, ignore why IR are falling. Only Margaret Lomas brought up the effect of the stamp duty confession running out in NSW; Andrew Wilson thinks that investors will pick up where they fall off (Dr Ando reckons the investors will return because they will see capital growth returning). Usual rubbish about you should buy now before the investors return. All ridiculously shallow analysis as usual.
Dr Ando comes across as not really understanding questions. Margaret Lomas at least understands what her callers are after and what their priorities are, despite being another property pusher.
Times to jump to for Dr Ando, if you're feeling a little masochistic (most interesting is at 34:20, his predictions for 2012):
3:20, 5:45, 6:50, 8:05 (on Blacktown), 14:05, 19:40 (on a studio apartment, which he didn't know the problems of bank financing for), 24:55 (on Central Coast, where he's not bullish for once), 29:25 (on Melbourne), 31:45 (on granny flats, don't bother), 34:20 (predictions on 2012), 38:35 (on Glenn Innes; Dr Ando is bullish on Orange); 43:15 (on Melbourne again); 48:45 (on Perth)
Dr Ando is bullish on economic growth for 2012 which will drive the housing market, in fact he appears bullish on nearly everything property. Spring was a flop because of struggling economic growth (which they got wrong). He loves Perth, Brisbane, Canberra...
Guy ringing up about Blacktown looking for high cap growth and rent. Dr Ando is bullish on Blacktown as he reckons people move there for "lifestyle reasons". Guess someone should check SQM stock on market to get an idea of the capital growth, although the vacancy rates are low at 1%, the Western Sydney vacancy rates are at 5%.
From the other panelist:
Quote
I don't have a problem with positively geared property, in fact I think it's a fantastic problem to have.
What kind of attitude is that? An investment that is making you money (instead of costing money which is written off on tax) is a problem? The way property investors think is amazing.
A guy in Brunswick, Melbourne bough a 2-bed apartment at the peak in 2010 for $525k and he's concerned about a potential over supply in the area. Looks like he could be in trouble to me, panelists think he's fine and he should hold, Dr Ando even thinks it's a good investment. Only Margaret Lomas thinks it wasn't a good investment and maybe he overpaid, and it wasn't a good investment (likely no capital growth for 3 years), but he should still hold. Later on someone rang about selling another Melbourne apartment because their yield was so low, once again they were told not to sell by the panelists, Margaret Lomas broke ranks and said that they could sell and look for a better property.
Dr Ando thinks that 2012 will be a year of recovery for the housing market. Says that 2012 was "subdued". Perth was worse than they thought. Sydney stood up (interesting that "stood up" means that it was practically flat!). He thinks that Perth and Brisbane will be good performers as they come off a low base. Sydney and Canberra will be solid. Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart will move sideways. I reckon Dr Ando will be pretty wrong, as always. Dr Ando also reckons that Perth is the best market in 2012, particularly up to $700k - $800k.
The other panelist was "optimistic" and thinks that IR reductions will bring people into the market. She did, of course, ignore why IR are falling. Only Margaret Lomas brought up the effect of the stamp duty confession running out in NSW; Andrew Wilson thinks that investors will pick up where they fall off (Dr Ando reckons the investors will return because they will see capital growth returning). Usual rubbish about you should buy now before the investors return. All ridiculously shallow analysis as usual.
Dr Ando comes across as not really understanding questions. Margaret Lomas at least understands what her callers are after and what their priorities are, despite being another property pusher.
This post has been edited by booboo: 17 January 2012 - 05:04 AM
#13
booboo
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Posted 21 February 2012 - 03:42 AM
Margaret Lomas had an absolute corker in the opening to last night's edition. Normally at the start she digs up "good news" real estate stories, and was talking to Terry Ryder on APM's positive spin on the falls recorded in Sydney last year - stressing that 60% of suburbs didn't fall.
Now, it's a REALLY good thing you don't need to understand maths or stats to be a property investor, or Margaret Lomas would be broke. Many times over. Here's what she said:
Some rubbish from Terry Ryder about the myriad of markets in Sydney and you can't use one figure for the whole city (although in a raising market they happily do!), including a complaint against the data providers, then this little lesson in statistics 101:
Hey Margaret, I have a hint for you: stop thinking!
The funniest part is that it was probably planned to say this. (I downloaded the podcast to make sure I got it just right, for those wondering.)
Seriously, can Lomas be that dumb about stats? I was dumber for watching the first five minutes of that show. A polite suggestion to Lomas: please stick to talking about your growth drivers, and leave analysis of statistics to those who at least know what a "median" is.
Now, it's a REALLY good thing you don't need to understand maths or stats to be a property investor, or Margaret Lomas would be broke. Many times over. Here's what she said:
Quote
...let's just start with the unsurprising news that the reason why the market's been looking so badly performing over the past 12 to 18 months is because of the big influence of those top end values in most of our capital cities.
Some rubbish from Terry Ryder about the myriad of markets in Sydney and you can't use one figure for the whole city (although in a raising market they happily do!), including a complaint against the data providers, then this little lesson in statistics 101:
Quote
See of course, what a lot of people don't stop to think, is if you have one big area like Sydney and you've got a two million dollar property that has sold 20% below its value, it's got a four hundred thousand dollar loss. And then if you've got a two hundred thousand dollar property that sells at 20% above its value, at two hundred and forty, you've only got a forty thousand gain. And overall, it still reads as a three hundred and sixty thousand dollar loss in that market or a 36% loss. And, that's where the problem has come in, I think.
Hey Margaret, I have a hint for you: stop thinking!
The funniest part is that it was probably planned to say this. (I downloaded the podcast to make sure I got it just right, for those wondering.)
Seriously, can Lomas be that dumb about stats? I was dumber for watching the first five minutes of that show. A polite suggestion to Lomas: please stick to talking about your growth drivers, and leave analysis of statistics to those who at least know what a "median" is.
#14
urchin
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Posted 21 February 2012 - 04:26 AM
booboo, on 21 February 2012 - 03:42 AM, said:
Margaret Lomas had an absolute corker in the opening to last night's edition. Normally at the start she digs up "good news" real estate stories, and was talking to Terry Ryder on APM's positive spin on the falls recorded in Sydney last year - stressing that 60% of suburbs didn't fall.
Now, it's a REALLY good thing you don't need to understand maths or stats to be a property investor, or Margaret Lomas would be broke. Many times over. Here's what she said:
Some rubbish from Terry Ryder about the myriad of markets in Sydney and you can't use one figure for the whole city (although in a raising market they happily do!), including a complaint against the data providers, then this little lesson in statistics 101:
Hey Margaret, I have a hint for you: stop thinking!
The funniest part is that it was probably planned to say this. (I downloaded the podcast to make sure I got it just right, for those wondering.)
Seriously, can Lomas be that dumb about stats? I was dumber for watching the first five minutes of that show. A polite suggestion to Lomas: please stick to talking about your growth drivers, and leave analysis of statistics to those who at least know what a "median" is.
Now, it's a REALLY good thing you don't need to understand maths or stats to be a property investor, or Margaret Lomas would be broke. Many times over. Here's what she said:
Some rubbish from Terry Ryder about the myriad of markets in Sydney and you can't use one figure for the whole city (although in a raising market they happily do!), including a complaint against the data providers, then this little lesson in statistics 101:
Hey Margaret, I have a hint for you: stop thinking!
The funniest part is that it was probably planned to say this. (I downloaded the podcast to make sure I got it just right, for those wondering.)
Seriously, can Lomas be that dumb about stats? I was dumber for watching the first five minutes of that show. A polite suggestion to Lomas: please stick to talking about your growth drivers, and leave analysis of statistics to those who at least know what a "median" is.
with all due respect, i think you've got it wrong. i am reasonably certain that they know quite well that everything they say is patently wrong. however they do count on people not thinking it through and only listening to the conclusion (stats are biased and despite the fact that numbers are going down, prices are really going up!). one has to admire the degree of disdain in which they hold their audience. it's quite impressive.
#15
itching
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Posted 21 February 2012 - 11:56 PM
urchin, on 21 February 2012 - 04:26 AM, said:
with all due respect, i think you've got it wrong. i am reasonably certain that they know quite well that everything they say is patently wrong. however they do count on people not thinking it through and only listening to the conclusion (stats are biased and despite the fact that numbers are going down, prices are really going up!). one has to admire the degree of disdain in which they hold their audience. it's quite impressive.
She is in the business of selling books and keeping her TV show going, nothing more. Preying on the studipity of the average property investor is not hard, surely you meet these creatures at bbq's (to them reality is meaningless, the plan is to hopefully be rich in the future - thats the extent of their ability to plan/think). To Lomas it is irrelevant if what she is saying is true, false, based somewhat in reality or is pure fantasy, as long as it is palatable to the humble investor it keeps her going.
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