[cobran20]

Edit: click the link to view the article properly.

This post has been edited by cobran20: 05 January 2012 - 01:33 AM

[Mr Medved]

Thanks. Nice to get alternative stats other than from the ministry of truth.

[zaph]

Quote

Gary Morgan says:

“In January unemployment is up 1.7% to 10.3% (1,278,000). The large increase is primarily driven by an increasing number of young people looking for work — youth unemployment (18-24yr olds) has increased to 24%, far higher than the next highest age groups (14-17yr olds: 9.5% and 25-34yr olds: 8.9%). However unemployment has risen across all age groups in January.

“Unemployment traditionally rises in January — the Roy Morgan unemployment estimates tables below show unemployment numbers have risen in 9/11 years since the turn of the century. The rise is because young people emerging from school are waiting for University offers — especially second round offers, and other young people are yet to decide whether to continue further University study and seek employment while they consider their options.

“Recent University graduates looking for work are also uncertain about the year ahead as post-graduate job offers are yet to be made and many people who may be offered a job in February are themselves job-hunting in January just in case the post-graduate job offer doesn’t materialise. The Roy Morgan unemployment estimates show that unemployment consistently drops in February (7/11 years) as students receive formal job offers and transition into full-time work.

“A further factor in explaining why unemployment this January has increased far more than it did a year ago is the fact that January 2011 was unique. Last year saw continuing Government stimulus (Building the Education Revolution, the Home Insulation Scheme) and also a spate of natural disasters around Australia that created many disaster related jobs. Many young and able-bodied people were employed during January 2011 to help ‘clean-up’ after devastating floods Australia wide, and particularly in Queensland and Victoria. The month of January has passed relatively disaster-free — although there is now severe flooding occurring in Northern NSW and Southern Queensland.

“The rise in youth unemployment is occurring alongside the broader trend of rising unemployment — which has now risen in six out of the last eight months from a 2011 low of 818,000 in May 2011 (up 460,000 in eight months) — unemployment has now reached a record high of 1,278,000 (10.3%). This is the highest ever recorded Roy Morgan unemployment estimate in Australia. Additionally, a further 934,000 Australians are employed part-time but looking for more work. Incredibly, this means a record high total of 2,212,000 Australians (17.8% of the workforce) are either unemployed or underemployed.

“Today’s Roy Morgan unemployment estimates strongly support anecdotal evidence of continuing job losses throughout Australia. Just in the past week we have been told that Westpac has announced 550 jobs to go; ANZ is axing 130 jobs; Holden will cut 200 jobs at its Adelaide plant; Toyota will cut 350 jobs in Melbourne; Reckitt Benckiser (maker of Mortein & Dettol) is to retrench 200 jobs at its Sydney operations; defence firm Thales shedding 50 jobs in Bendigo — these are just the most prominent examples of job losses occurring in the Australian economy!

“Economists and politicians are wrong to talk about a ‘tight’ labour market in Australia driving wage pressures. Wage demands (inflation) at the moment are being driven by unions — a small minority of the Australian workforce — not by a tight labour market with workers changing jobs to secure better wages and conditions. Today’s Roy Morgan employment estimates show why inflation in Australia is contained, and will remain contained — at its meeting next Tuesday the RBA must drop interest rates by at least 0.5% and probably more.”

this is a huge increase. detail at http://www.roymorgan...olls/2012/4742/

[wulfgar]

Mr Medved, on 05 January 2012 - 07:59 AM, said:

Thanks. Nice to get alternative stats other than from the ministry of truth.

Yeah, at least in the Soviet Union they gave you cool looking heroic badges to go with the BS propaganda.

[Solomon]

zaph, on 03 February 2012 - 06:03 AM, said:

this is a huge increase. detail at http://www.roymorgan...olls/2012/4742/

Thanks zaph for the link.
If (if) Roy Morgan is closer to the truth than the ABS, then it adds a measure to the downward pressure on home prices.
Like Tinpusher/Bernie, I believe unemployment and home prices/home construction/development are closely knit.
One drives the other, and vice versa. It doesn't matter which occurs first, the other is affected.

Wouldn't we all dearly love to know the factual truth.
I'm so spun around these days with hype and fairy floss, by all sorts of communication medium, that its impossible to know what to believe anymore. I dare say, I'm not the only one.

I honestly feel that its probably closer to the figure that Roy Morgan suggests, but I only have anecdotal evidence to depend upon. If 1/10 of Australians are underemployed or unemployed, then we have a serious problem. Far more serious than the government are claiming based on the ABS figures.
This would certainly explain the slowdown in retail figures, and the decline in the service sector.
At this stage, I'm not hearing too many politicians trying to explain those declines.
The credit card is maxxed out, and now we have no means to pay it off.

My head hurts with all this. I think its time to hit the sack.

[zaph]

Solomon, on 03 February 2012 - 12:46 PM, said:

Thanks zaph for the link.
If (if) Roy Morgan is closer to the truth than the ABS, then it adds a measure to the downward pressure on home prices.
Like Tinpusher/Bernie, I believe unemployment and home prices/home construction/development are closely knit.
One drives the other, and vice versa. It doesn't matter which occurs first, the other is affected.

Wouldn't we all dearly love to know the factual truth.
I'm so spun around these days with hype and fairy floss, by all sorts of communication medium, that its impossible to know what to believe anymore. I dare say, I'm not the only one.

I honestly feel that its probably closer to the figure that Roy Morgan suggests, but I only have anecdotal evidence to depend upon. If 1/10 of Australians are underemployed or unemployed, then we have a serious problem. Far more serious than the government are claiming based on the ABS figures.
This would certainly explain the slowdown in retail figures, and the decline in the service sector.
At this stage, I'm not hearing too many politicians trying to explain those declines.
The credit card is maxxed out, and now we have no means to pay it off.

My head hurts with all this. I think its time to hit the sack.

I'm not sure if you are aware but the ABS define someone as employed if they work more than an hour a week! while i guess that's technically correct the data it produces is not useful, particularly with causalisation of the workforce. i believe Roy Morgan use a much broader definition. while i believe change is more important than an absolute number, i know who i would believe more.

most economists say full employment is unemployment of 5%. anything lower leads to rampant inflation.

it would be useful to have the centrelink data of people on the dole. it wouldn't be ideal as it wouldn't count people with savings who are ineligible, but i would add to the picture.

let's see what RM come up with for feb..

[sydney3000]

zaph, on 03 February 2012 - 07:31 PM, said:

let's see what RM come up with for feb..

RM will have to expand the left axis in February. Is the 457 visa legislation causing this unemployment?

[wulfgar]

zaph, on 03 February 2012 - 07:31 PM, said:

most economists say full employment is unemployment of 5%. anything lower leads to rampant inflation.

Yes and no........it depends what kind of inflation you are referring to. In this case we are referring wage/price inflation.

But worst of all it is bad inflation.

Now good inflation is when the median house price is priced at 20x the annual basic wage. This non productive speculators get money for nothing and economists cheer this!

However if the slave wage rises to say a house for 6 years annual wage like it was in the 1960's.......this is a example of evil inflation!

All this means buckly's to real monetary inflation that eventually does destroy the system.