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aussies welcome jap banks, oz banks not so keen and hopefully their obscenely low interest rates oz banks not so keen

#1 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 09:58 AM

http://www.7perth.co...20111229160205/

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Japanese Banks

Reporter: James Thomas

A better deal never came for Allan Ashton, his family lost their home to the bank. He tried to buy it back but couldn't get the finance.

Allan's family joins the other 10,000 Australian families who lost their homes this year because they couldn't keep pace with their mortgage. Now, a shock to the banking sector which will save thousands from scenes like these

"The Japanese, when they come in and provide this low cost home loan, it is going to be a massive, massive blow to the big four." Said Ormond

It is the foreign invasion that our banks will hate. But Australians with home loans will love. Some of Japan's strongest banks are planning an assault on our mortgage market.

"I think a new competitive force will actually be good for Australia." Said Boyd

Financial commentator, Tony Boyd says the Australian Banks have had it too good for too long. And now, the Japanese banks want a slice of the action.

The biggest of these banks is nufj which is basically mitsubishi. It probably ranks around the top 5 banks in the world in terms of assets.

And, Tony Argues, Japanese banks pay a lot less than aussie banks for their assets which puts them in a very strong position.

"The thing about the Japanese banks that gives them this competitive advantage to be able to offer home loans in Australia is their low cost of funding. The average deposit rate in japan at the moment is 0.1% it's just incredible - it's one tenth of 1%."

That's about 600% less than Australian banks pay for their deposits. In effect, they get money more cheaply, so they can afford to give it cheaply. In Japan, you can get a home variable home loan and pay as little as 1% ... Imagine that...

"I don't think any business goes into any market unless they want to make money." Said Boyd

Tony says there is no reason for the Japanese banks to offer rates as low as they do back home but we can definitely expect rates that are a good deal lower than they are now.

Wayne Ormond knows what its like to be screwed by our banks. He recently lost his mortgage broking business because the banks refused to offer him flexibility on his own loans... He says the foreign invasion will smash the banking cartel and he's looking forward to it.

Let's hope it absolutely makes the big banks rethink their pricing. We saw recently with the last interest rate reduction by the reserve bank - the big banks were even slow to pass it on. It will make it a lot faster to pass it on if there's a Japanese bank sitting there with rates considerably less than theirs.

"My information is that they've been working on this for quite a while and i was told that 2012 they would get the green light. So let's hope all the stars are aligned and it happens." Said Boyd

One thing that a foreign bank will need is the nod from our government. "What do you make of the Japanese making advances on our online home market do you welcome the competition?" said Swan

Another competitor in the market can only be good; to keep the big banks honest.

If Mr Swan remains honest to that statement - it looks like the coast is clear and it could be more than just the Japanese.

"I've heard that some of the Arab banks are looking at Australia. I've heard about banks in Singapore. I've heard about banks in Malaysia and other Asian countries. I've even heard again of us banks. And the reason why is that we are a safe place to lend." Said Ormond

And Wayne is confident, when it comes to saving money loyalty to Aussie banks is the last thing on our minds.

Doesn't matter whether they'll come from japan, doesn't matter whether it comes from Hong Kong, if it comes from the Arab nations - we don't care, all we want is a good deal.

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#2 User is offline   staringclown 

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 10:26 AM

View Postsavagegoose, on 09 January 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:



I'm going to borrow @3% and stick it in a westpac TD and make a mint.
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#3 User is offline   xygen 

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 11:02 AM

View Postsavagegoose, on 09 January 2012 - 09:58 AM, said:



Is this a real possibility? Surely this carries (no pun intended) significant exposure to exchange rates... What if the JPY rises despite the BOJ's efforts? What if the AUD crashes on the heels of a hard landing in China?
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#4 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 09 January 2012 - 11:30 AM

lol SC , it would seem an ideal plan, gimme, gimme gimme,. maybe thgw jap banks feel that they are sick of their 0.1% returns and are willing to risk exchange rate disasters. at least money here, is earning real returns?
no wait theyre doing mortgages not mining, are they insane?
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#5 User is online   Mr Medved 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 02:24 AM

Heh, so our vampiric banks will face off against zombie banks from Japan. I wish I had photoshop skills.

Posted Image

This post has been edited by Mr Medved: 10 January 2012 - 02:26 AM

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#6 User is offline   tom 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 03:17 AM

View Postxygen, on 09 January 2012 - 11:02 AM, said:

Is this a real possibility? Surely this carries (no pun intended) significant exposure to exchange rates... What if the JPY rises despite the BOJ's efforts? What if the AUD crashes on the heels of a hard landing in China?


Exactly. There were many cases in the 80s of people borrowing money in foreign currencies in Australia to get better interest rates.

When I say cases I mean drawn out court battles where people were blaming the banks for not adequately explaining the risks in doing so. Why would a punter in Japan invest money in AUD to recieve a 0.1% interest rate when they can get 6% in Australia! Markets are not that stupid.

Same way I would love to invest in $US at 6% interest rates and would do it in a heartbeat but unfortunately (and unsurprisingly!) when I hit up the commonwealth bank for this they only pay me the rate that is relevant for that currency in that case around 0.5% after they take their cut.

I expect the Japanese banks will do the same as Australian ones and when borrowing the money in foreign currencies hedge it and end up paying precisely what they would for Australian funds in the first instance and ultimately this is how they determine what they will pay Australian depositors. If they could get unlimited funds from Europe at 3% interest rates after hedging back to AUD do you think they would pay us 6% for our deposits?

Additionally I expect our big four to already get some of their deposit liablities from Japan anyway, and it makes no difference in the end. The market is not so stupid to leave low hanging fruit like that lying around.
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#7 User is offline   tom 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 03:20 AM

The real story here is how a financial commentator and a journalist can have this level of understanding of financial markets?

Quote

That's about 600% less than Australian banks pay for their deposits. In effect, they get money more cheaply, so they can afford to give it cheaply. In Japan, you can get a home variable home loan and pay as little as 1% ... Imagine that...


If I was cynical I would think that it is a spruik on the Australian housing market. It does not take a rocket scientist to know where our housing market would be if 1% interest rates were on the table...
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#8 User is offline   cobran20 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 03:40 AM

View Posttom, on 10 January 2012 - 03:17 AM, said:

Additionally I expect our big four to already get some of their deposit liablities from Japan anyway, and it makes no difference in the end. The market is not so stupid to leave low hanging fruit like that lying around.


+1. If it sounds too good to be true, then...
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#9 User is online   Mr Medved 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 08:20 AM

View Postcobran20, on 10 January 2012 - 03:40 AM, said:

+1. If it sounds too good to be true, then...

Ask Hungarians and Latvians about borrowing in foreign currencies to finance real estate...
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#10 User is offline   staringclown 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 09:29 AM

View Postsavagegoose, on 09 January 2012 - 11:30 AM, said:

lol SC , it would seem an ideal plan, gimme, gimme gimme,. maybe thgw jap banks feel that they are sick of their 0.1% returns and are willing to risk exchange rate disasters. at least money here, is earning real returns?
no wait theyre doing mortgages not mining, are they insane?


Are you saying I'm not going to make a mint on the carry trade? :)

Yeah I'm assuming the jap banks (if they come) will take risk into account (as others mention) when determining their rates.
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#11 User is offline   mattau 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 04:05 PM

wow 1% - it really does seem too good to be true.

I'd like to see jap banks come to Aus. It'd shake up the market a bit. I wonder what effect it'd have though overall...
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#12 User is offline   tom 

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Posted 10 January 2012 - 11:29 PM

View Postmattau, on 10 January 2012 - 04:05 PM, said:


I'd like to see jap banks come to Aus. It'd shake up the market a bit. I wonder what effect it'd have though overall...


Even scraping the surface a little it is clear we will not have 1% mortgage rates here.

On Jap banks in Australia, I think it is a good thing too. We are going to need banks here that have not been exposed to the australian real estate market over the last decade when the ice cream hits the fan.

Good time to dip the toe in the water when we still have capital and then profiteer from a lack of funds in the coming five years. I would love to see their business plan for Australia!
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#13 User is offline   booboo 

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 12:53 AM

Don't they have editors or sub-editors who proof read their articles? The level of grammatical errors and typos (particularly regarding capitals) in that article is shocking (I am wondering if that "journalist" even passed grade 12 English), not to mention the laziness of their fact checking.

I mean...come on. This paragraph made me chuckle:

Quote

The biggest of these banks is nufj which is basically mitsubishi. It probably ranks around the top 5 banks in the world in terms of assets.


"nufj"? "Probably ranks"? How lazy can you be? Honestly, it's hard to take any of that article seriously, which makes me wonder about the progessionalism of channel 7 news in Perth.

Anyway, it will be hard to tell what will happen with rates. The currency hedging will not be cheap, going by what the Oz banks are paying, and if there's one rule in an oligopoly, it's that you don't compete on price (in any serious way) - basic game theory. Colour me shocked if they actually do enter the market and they are much lower than what we pay now (especially if they start becoming reliant on overnight lending between the Oz banks, whose rate is set by the RBA anyway).

Regarding what 1% would do to house prices in Australia, no doubt it'll have a huge short term stimulus effect, as people rush to the cheap loans and borrow to the hilt. In the longer run, though, it will likely cause a horrorific crash, as exposure to interest movements would be huge. A 1% IR loan moving to just 4% (which is probably just above half the historic rate) would quadruple the payments alone!
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#14 User is online   wulfgar 

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 01:19 AM

Foreign banks have been open in Aus for quarter of a century haven't they? And we have relatively high rates?
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#15 User is offline   tom 

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 01:50 AM

I actually think it would be good if Australia got some banks that cherry picked risk.

Compete on price sure but only get the low risk loan assets.

It would be fantastic to see these Jap banks offer 1% below existing banks but only offer it for 0.6LVR and below for example. In a collapse the big 4 would have a concentration of bad loans and they would cruise on through.

It has always surprised me there has not been more price discrimination against riskier loan types in Australia. Sure we have low doc loans at high rates but whether you have a 0.8LVR or a 0.6LVR the only difference in rate seems to be around the total lend and the more the better the rate you get it seems.
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#16 User is online   Easy Tiger 

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 08:30 AM

Aussies will still be gouged. Posted Image
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#17 User is offline   savagegoose 

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 09:00 AM

so if there where no more loans at all , and no LVR tp contend with , how much would houses go down? seems to me people will borrrow what ever that can and go find a house,. what happens to peics when you can no longer borrow ? something like usa and europe i assume
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#18 User is offline   Peachy 

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Posted 11 January 2012 - 08:17 PM

View Postcobran20, on 10 January 2012 - 03:40 AM, said:

+1. If it sounds too good to be true, then...

Whilst I agree with the general gist of what Tom is saying (after taking into account all costs, including management of exchange risk, Japanese banks won't offer 1% mortgage rates in Australia), I do know for a fact that out in industry a fair bit of wholesale financing business (not mortgage related) has been going to Japanese lenders because hey have been able to offer unbeatable rates...

Just an anecdotal observation, which leads me to suspect that Japanese banks can get AUD funds more cheaply than the locals.

HOWEVER, the Japanese know all about falling house prices so they won't be handing out low rate loans to marginally qualified borrowers like candy.
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#19 User is offline   tom 

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Posted 12 January 2012 - 03:47 AM

View PostPeachy, on 11 January 2012 - 08:17 PM, said:

HOWEVER, the Japanese know all about falling house prices so they won't be handing out low rate loans to marginally qualified borrowers like candy.


I think pricing risk appropriately is all that was missing in the USA to have avoided disaster.

If marginal borrowers were forced to pay 10% interest rates from the word go there would have been less marginal borrowers and those capable only would have been able to afford finance.

If one starts to cherry pick the low risk loans and offer better rates the others will nearly certainly have to follow or end up with a concentration of dodgy loan assets over time. I think it would be a healthier / more robust finance market if residential mortgages were graded more heavily more akin to business loans where they can be anywhere from 7% to 15% or more p.a.

If the government did not offer the guarantee it would work two fold with a prudent bank in that they could also source funding cheaper and offer cheaper rates. Due to our government guarantee the funding costs will only be marginally different I fear between a prudent bank v our big four...
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