[itching]

http://afr.com/rw/20...n%2031-2012.pdf

[zaph]

press release http://www.rpdata.co...eindexjan31.pdf

and CJ makes the claim that december will most likely be revised up

Quote

While the flash estimate of the seasonally adjusted December month dwelling value index is -0.2%, this is being heavily influenced by two outsized (negative) results for Melbourne and Perth. It just so happens that these cities’ valuer-generals are probably the worst offenders when it comes to the timely transmission of data. What makes the Melbourne and Perth numbers especially suspect is that they come on the back of solid seasonally adjusted gains in November, which have been reconfirmed with RP Data-Rismark’s latest index analysis.

I expect to see future index revisions cast a more positive light on the price action in Melbourne and Perth over December, which could kick the national result back up into positive territory (following on from the encouraging November gain).

http://www.propertyo...hristopher-joye

[staringclown]

zaph, on 31 January 2012 - 04:55 AM, said:

press release http://www.rpdata.co...eindexjan31.pdf

and CJ makes the claim that december will most likely be revised up





http://www.propertyo...hristopher-joye

How does he know that the revision will be on the high side again? Is he psychic?

[booboo]

Month of December (current release):

http://www.rpdata.co...eindexjan31.pdf

Month of November (previous release):

http://www.rpdata.co..._dec30_2011.pdf

MacroBusiness:

http://www.macrobusi...price-analysis/
http://www.macrobusi...s-resume-falls/

The headlines scream that "Sydney pushes ahead while other markets remain soft". What it should really say is that Sydney rises due to the withdrawal of FHB stamp duty whilst others continue their fall. Being the balanced discussion that it is, of course the expiry of the Sydney stamp duty concession was not mentioned, but they did say that Sydney had the largest amount of recored sales (wonder why?). (If Sydney prices fall in the first quarter of 2012, no doubt it will be mentioned then!)

It was mentioned that Melbourne and Perth estimates could be revised as the were "volatile".

And, everything apparently is looking better for housing because of the rate cuts.

The results for capital cities was all down, with the exception of Sydney SA (yes, even Sydney raw was down). It's not pretty:
Capitals -0.2% MoM SA, -1.2% MoM raw, -0.5% QoQ SA, -1.5% QoQ raw
Regions -0.4% MoM SA, -0.6% MoM raw, -0.7% QoQ SA, -0.4% QoQ raw
Sydney 0.4% MoM SA, -0.5% MoM raw , 0.7% QoQ SA, -0.3% QoQ raw
Melbourne -0.5% MoM SA, -1.7% MoM raw, -1.4% QoQ SA, -2.5% QoQ raw
Brisbane -0.6% MoM SA, -1.6% MoM raw, -1.3% QoQ SA, -2.1% QoQ raw
Adealaide -0.1% MoM SA, -0.2%, MoM raw, -1.2%, QoQ SA, -0.6% QoQ raw
Perth -1.6% MoM SA, -1.9% MoM raw, -2.1% QoQ SA, -2.9% QoQ raw
Darwin -0.3% MoM SA, -0.6% MoM raw, -1.1% QoQ SA, -1.2% QoQ raw
Canberra -1.3% MoM SA, -2.3% MoM raw, -0.1% QoQ SA, -0.6% QoQ raw

The difference between Melbourne and Sydney SA and raw looks very high. One would also suspect that a lot of these will be revised upwards, towards being flat.

If anyone can tell me how the MSM managed to paint these as positive and a "bottom", I'd love to hear it. Both the figures above and below are awful, excluding Sydney SA. Even that is awful when you consider the massive bounce in FHBs due to the withdrawal of the stamp duty concession on established properties. The latest bottom call looks just as accurate as the previous 6 or 7 different bottom calls for varying areas that I have seen over the last 4 or so months.

Revisions:

Sydney:
Rolling 3 months down -0.3% raw. Median price $485,000. (Previous median was $495,000.)
December down -0.5% raw.
November down -0.2% raw (revised up from -0.3%).
October must have been up around 0.4% raw (flat at 0.4%).
YoY at -0.3%.

Melbourne:
Rolling 3 months down -2.5% raw. Median price $462,500. (Previous median was $461,000.)
December up -1.7% raw.
November up 0.3% raw (revised up from 0.2%).
October must have been down around -1.1% raw (revised down from -0.7%). (This was originally -0.2%.)
YoY at -6.1%.

Brisbane:
Rolling 3 months down -2.1%. Median price at $420,000. (Previous median was $410,000.)
December down -1.6% raw.
November down -0.1% raw (revised up from -0.6% raw). (Big upward revision from original -1.7%!)
October must have been down around -0.4% raw (revised up from -0.7%).
YoY at -6.8%.

Perth:
Rolling 3 months down -2.9%. Median price at $450,000. (Previous median was $450,000.)
December down at -1.9% raw.
November up 0.1% raw (revised up from 0.0% raw).
October must have been down around -1.1% (revised up from -1.7%).
YoY at -4.3%.

Can't be bothered doing more cities, sorry. Feel free to add others.

[zaph]

ABS dec quarter http://www.abs.gov.a...@.nsf/mf/6416.0

canberra, perth, hobart up. everywhere else down. 1% weighted cap cities down.