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Why the slow melt in house prices will go on Leith Van Onselen in the SMH Rate Topic: -----

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Posted 02 February 2012 - 08:54 AM

Why the slow melt in house prices will go on

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Where to from here?
Sydney's housing market has been assisted by the New South Wales government's announcement in early September 2011 that it would end the stamp duty concessions provided to first home buyers of pre-existing dwellings on 1 January 2012. This concession, which provided as much as $18,000 of stamp duty relief, appears to have brought forward a significant amount of first home buyer demand in NSW as buyers rushed to benefit from the stamp duty concessions before they expired.
The surge in purchases by NSW first home buyers is clearly evident in the below chart, which shows the percentage of housing finance commitments attributable to first home buyers:


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Tuesday's release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) credit aggregates data also signaled more headwinds for the Australian housing market. Despite the recent 0.5 per cent cut in mortgage interest rates, Australian housing credit growth slumped to fresh 34-year lows, suggesting that households are becoming increasingly averse to mortgage debt (see below chart):


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