[cobran20]

Mr Medved, on 04 May 2010 - 08:41 AM, said:

Santa has come early for cobran.

That newsletter is VERY bullish for Australia. I'll have to re-read it to make sense of it.

He is also recommending to foreigners that even Oz RE would be a good investment due to currency implications.
I guess that if you buy a property with an exchange rate at around US$0.93 and then sell it years later with an exchange rate at around US$2.00, foreigners will be keen to outbid the locals.

However, he seems mostly bullish on The Precious and the $A since it is a gold/commodity currency.

So much for our 'clever' country.

[sydney3000]

Everybody is entitled to his opinion. The one thing I can certainly agree with is:

"Australia is by far not the brightest bulb in the box." (page 3 aka page 6/16)

This post has been edited by sydney3000: 04 May 2010 - 09:48 PM

[itching]

sydney3000, on 04 May 2010 - 09:46 PM, said:

Everybody is entitled to his opinion. The one thing I can certainly agree with is:

"Australia is by far not the brightest bulb in the box." (page 3 aka page 6/16)

I read it yesterday so forgive me if im wrong, but I recall that quote was specifically about the speed at which Australia reduced our debt, from the 80's. It had nothing to do with the shape of our economy.

[cobran20]

Greek Debt Crisis The Preview of What Is To Come

[cobran20]

Another good read

The Two Phases of the Great Depression 5-27-2010

[Chimerica]

Can the Euro survive a sovereign debt crisis? - 14th June 2010

http://www.martinarm...sis-6-14-10.pdf

[cobran20]

Chimerica, on 07 July 2010 - 06:56 AM, said:

Can the Euro survive a sovereign debt crisis? - 14th June 2010

http://www.martinarm...sis-6-14-10.pdf

He's published a few other good articles since that one:

Are we running out of other people's money - totally agree that the next bubble to burst will be in government spending, as is happening in various states of the US and the PIIGS.


2010 - The Collective Conscience

Is Goldman following the model

[Chimerica]

cobran20, on 07 July 2010 - 07:25 AM, said:

He's published a few other good articles since that one:

Are we running out of other people's money - totally agree that the next bubble to burst will be in government spending, as is happening in various states of the US and the PIIGS.


2010 - The Collective Conscience

Is Goldman following the model

Thanks Cobran.

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 03 May 2010 - 10:41 PM, said:

Armstrong has dedicated an entire article to Oz. He makes wulfgar's call on the $A look tame!

link

So far so good for Armstrong's forecast for the $A. After what I thought would be a dive to 77c, it held 81c. Perhaps I'll get my parity after all, if not Armstrong's $A1 = $US2!

Attached File(s)

•  1.jpg (343.36K)
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[Solomon]

cobran20, on 04 August 2010 - 10:09 AM, said:

So far so good for Armstrong's forecast for the $A. After what I thought would be a dive to 77c, it held 81c. Perhaps I'll get my parity after all, if not Armstrong's $A1 = $US2!

Could it also be Cobran, that many of us are naive waiting for our downturn then.
If what Armstrong says is true then Australia may march to the stars on the coat-tails of China.
The long awaited house price downturn could simply not arrive, but in fact be simply a step on the way higher.
I'm hoping Armstrong is wrong, but many of the things he suggests about the ascendency of China, as the next super-power, suggest that Australia could become the gem in the crown, because of our mineral deposits.
I'm sure a lot of economists here would agree with him.

Whilst I may be contrarian, his arguments bear thinking about.
I'm still not so closed of mind, that I dismiss anything to the contrary of my own position.
To do so is to become fanatical, and dogmatic.
I think at this stage in my appraisal of the world, that Armstrong has got it wrong, but!!!

[cobran20]

Solomon, on 04 August 2010 - 11:16 PM, said:

Could it also be Cobran, that many of us are naive waiting for our downturn then.
If what Armstrong says is true then Australia may march to the stars on the coat-tails of China.
The long awaited house price downturn could simply not arrive, but in fact be simply a step on the way higher.
I'm hoping Armstrong is wrong, but many of the things he suggests about the ascendency of China, as the next super-power, suggest that Australia could become the gem in the crown, because of our mineral deposits.
I'm sure a lot of economists here would agree with him.

Whilst I may be contrarian, his arguments bear thinking about.
I'm still not so closed of mind, that I dismiss anything to the contrary of my own position.
To do so is to become fanatical, and dogmatic.
I think at this stage in my appraisal of the world, that Armstrong has got it wrong, but!!!

When the markets bottomed in March 2009, they had dropped around 50%, which is not uncommon bottom for major bear markets. We could have been climbing a new bull market's 'wall of worry' since then. If the markets have not rolled over by late this year, I'll have to re-assess the situation and assume the central bank's printing presses have overcome the market's deflationary forces. In a free market, the excesses are purged quickly. Now we seem to have much more manipulated markets and the day of reckoning will further postponed . I suspect that means much more volatility ahead.

[cobran20]

Deflation to be or not to be

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 12 August 2010 - 11:09 PM, said:

Deflation to be or not to be

Forgot to add this little quote:

Quote

... However, the mere decline in real estate that is going to prevail broadly about 26 years from the big 2007 high, is NOT the measure of DEPRESSION simply because it declines...

I thought the high in RE for the US was in 2005. He seems to be using the stock market high for extrapolating RE forecasts. Either case, he's suggesting another Japan RE scenario for the US.

[Mr Medved]

cobran20, on 13 August 2010 - 08:10 AM, said:

I thought the high in RE for the US was in 2005.

The reference may be in relation to a high/turning point in confidence, not in RE valuations.

[cobran20]

Mr Medved, on 13 August 2010 - 08:48 AM, said:

The reference may be in relation to a high/turning point in confidence, not in RE valuations.

That makes sense and 26 years about 3 x 8.6 (business cycles). I wonder how he arrived at 3?

[Dose]

Movie: I Want Your Money


One view on the whole taxation debate.

MA raises an interesting point around the ALL governments default idea...had never looked at it that way.

[cobran20]

World Share Market Outlook & The Grand Unified Theory

[cobran20]

The Benner Cyles are also pointing to a low in 2012, as per Armstrong's expectations.

[Mr Medved]

A couple of choice quotes from "Staring into the Abyss", written on 31 July 2010.


Under a situation from the European view in 1931, the only thing to survive was tangible assets. This is not merely gold, but shares in corporations with tangible assets. Velocity is always the key for as it declines due to people then hoarding money, you get deflation. When people are afraid money will become worthless (paper of debased coinage) they spend it faster before it depreciates and that creates hyperinflation. It all depends where confidence stands – with government or within the private sector. We are headed into the later.


When governments collapse, it can get very, very nasty. This is when tangible items of value, gold, antiques, art, and movable objects has a basic barter worth. Land typically declines to its basic value non-leveraged cash value. Even during the Great Depression, Land that was valued at $1.20 in the mid 1800s per acre fell to 30 cents. This is cause by the lack of any credit to allow borrowing that is leverage in the real estate market. A 30 year mortgage brings forward 30 years of future income today. It is not money yet earned.

[cobran20]

Australia & The Current Account Deficit 8-23-2010