[boz]

cobran20, on 30 August 2010 - 12:36 AM, said:

Australia & The Current Account Deficit 8-23-2010

Interesting view.
So, if Australia gets a trade surplus which lead into a current account surplus like it happened in the last few months of commodity boom, does that mean it is time to jump off the ship? How about the big CC deficit of Greece and Spain? last country with big CC deficit that got busted was iceland....

[cobran20]

boz, on 30 August 2010 - 02:32 AM, said:

Interesting view.
So, if Australia gets a trade surplus which lead into a current account surplus like it happened in the last few months of commodity boom, does that mean it is time to jump off the ship? How about the big CC deficit of Greece and Spain? last country with big CC deficit that got busted was iceland....

I would ignore the trade related flow and look at the capital flow. Presumably if we're running a deficit, then somebody must be willing to fund it, otherwise there would be a loss of confidence by in Australia by foreigners, which would not be good news!

[cobran20]

cobran20, on 30 August 2010 - 12:36 AM, said:

Australia & The Current Account Deficit 8-23-2010

The current account deficit fell, so things must be turning pear shape according to Armstrong's theory.

5302.0 - Balance of Payments and International Investment Position, Australia, Jun 2010

Quote

JUNE KEY POINTS


BALANCE OF PAYMENTS

<LI type=square>The current account deficit, seasonally adjusted, fell $10,817m (66%) to $5,640m in the June quarter 2010. There was a turnaround of $9,706m on the balance of goods and services, resulting in a surplus of $6,497m in the June quarter 2010. The primary income deficit fell $1,112m (9%) to $11,909m.
• In seasonally adjusted chain volume terms, the deficit on goods and services fell $1,260m (16%) from $7,694m in the March quarter 2010 to $6,434m in the June quarter 2010. This is expected to contribute 0.4 percentage points to growth in the June quarter 2010 volume measure of GDP.

INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT POSITION (IIP)

• Australia's net IIP rose $4.2b to a net liability position of $763.5b in the June quarter 2010. Australia's net foreign debt liability increased $14.1b to a liability position of $671.9b. Australia's net foreign equity liability decreased $10.0b to a liability position of $91.6b.
  

[cobran20]

Gold and 11 year high for 2010

[tor]

cobran20, on 25 September 2010 - 02:25 AM, said:

Gold and 11 year high for 2010

Man he gets upset at the end of that one.

[cobran20]

tor, on 25 September 2010 - 03:37 AM, said:

Man he gets upset at the end of that one.

That gold tax they introduced will drive the gold bugs mad! They'll have to buy & sell gold on the black market to avoid paying big brother.

[cobran20]

The Athenian RE Panic & Banking crisis. How trading bankers always collapse - a guide to the future?

[savagegoose]

http://www.martinarm...2010-9-2010.pdf

check out his advert on the back of some mag,

$12000 for annual subscription, no wonder the pricks in jail

[cobran20]

savagegoose, on 18 October 2010 - 11:22 PM, said:

http://www.martinarm...2010-9-2010.pdf

check out his advert on the back of some mag,

$12000 for annual subscription, no wonder the pricks in jail

His clientele were governments and big businesses - chicked feed to them! The chinese government and Thatcher called him in for onsite meetings - imagine what that fee would have been like!

[savagegoose]

i spose he did call a few crashes and booms., wonder what he actually did to end up in jail. i do like his posts tho. just not his fees for the early work.
maybe he was telling his clients how to evade the govs tentacles, sure thats enough to get you in jail, after thats what hes been railing against this whole last post.,

[Mr Medved]

savagegoose, on 19 October 2010 - 03:49 AM, said:

i spose he did call a few crashes and booms., wonder what he actually did to end up in jail. i do like his posts tho. just not his fees for the early work.
maybe he was telling his clients how to evade the govs tentacles, sure thats enough to get you in jail, after thats what hes been railing against this whole last post.,

Some of his older newsletters went into details about his case and the charges laid against him. He has also made available copies of legal documents filed in the court system.

BTW there was an institutional report that was 50k a year too.

[Solomon]

I guess I always wonder how much credence to place upon the writings of someone who has been convicted of crime, whether rightly or wrongly.
I have read this latest, and there is a lot of diatribe over the evils of government, but then that was part of Marx's own writings as well.
But I'm struggling to understand something Martin says in this latest paper.
I'm not doubting he may be right, just trying to work out the mechanics behind it.

His claim is that this particular financial situation (compared to the Great Depression), will not result in a low Dow Jones Share Price Index, but rather a higher index, in direct relationship to a high price in gold.

I think (if I have read it right) that his claim is that this is a sovereign debt crisis, and therefore the effects are destroying other parts of the economy rather than the traditional indices that we associate with an economic disaster.

If he is correct then my questions are these:
Where is the money coming from to invest in shares, and should we be in shares rather than cash, given that Martin believes they will continue to rally?
What index do we need to be watching then, to determine whether a major crash is imminent?

[savagegoose]

money is coming from the fed,
at0.25% interest, if it works and you make money, you pay the .25%, if it fails you get bailed out.

[cobran20]

Solomon, on 19 October 2010 - 10:47 PM, said:

I guess I always wonder how much credence to place upon the writings of someone who has been convicted of crime, whether rightly or wrongly.
I have read this latest, and there is a lot of diatribe over the evils of government, but then that was part of Marx's own writings as well.
But I'm struggling to understand something Martin says in this latest paper.
I'm not doubting he may be right, just trying to work out the mechanics behind it.

His claim is that this particular financial situation (compared to the Great Depression), will not result in a low Dow Jones Share Price Index, but rather a higher index, in direct relationship to a high price in gold.

I think (if I have read it right) that his claim is that this is a sovereign debt crisis, and therefore the effects are destroying other parts of the economy rather than the traditional indices that we associate with an economic disaster.

If he is correct then my questions are these:
Where is the money coming from to invest in shares, and should we be in shares rather than cash, given that Martin believes they will continue to rally?
What index do we need to be watching then, to determine whether a major crash is imminent?

Zimbabwe destroyed its currency via printing and its stock market rocketed due to its depreciating currency and people jumping into the market to try to maintain purchasing power, in the same manner as they jumped into gold. I like to watch stock, gold and interest rates to monito the effects of government policy. IMO, if the stock markets don't seriously roll over, then I tend to agree with Armstrong's view that the the March 2009 low will hold for the foreseeable future and we've been climbing the wall of worry of a new bull market.

[Mr Medved]

Solomon, on 19 October 2010 - 10:47 PM, said:

Where is the money coming from to invest in shares, and should we be in shares rather than cash, given that Martin believes they will continue to rally?
What index do we need to be watching then, to determine whether a major crash is imminent?

If people believe cash will diminish in value then they will buy 'stuff', and the value of 'stuff' will go up against the currency. Shares are a small ownership in something tangible so may be an avenue for people moving their capital from cash to shares. Another reason is if the (big) bond buyers get out of bonds - start of a secular bond bear market. If people dump cash and bonds that's a lot of capital! That capital needs to go somewhere... if not bonds or cash then where to go? It could be shares, property, precious metals, commodities, rare artwork, collectibles, etc.

No idea what index to watch to pick a turning point. Armstrong's model is based on his pi cycle theory, the next major turning point going from memory is June 2011, with a larger turning point in 2016. Although my views change, based on his theory, at the beginning of the year I was looking for an Oct/Nov panic, followed by QE2, with a (confidence) low in June '11, followed by the mother-of-all crack-up booms lasting five years, followed by the mother-of-all busts. Just a theory though...

[Solomon]

Thank-you to all those who responded to my questions.
Very helpful and very generous.
Think I'm beginning to make sense of it now.
Without your help, I was floundering to grasp his logic.

[cobran20]

A good one on currencies. He maintains his view of A$1 = US$2!


Show me the money

[boz]

cobran20, on 30 October 2010 - 01:57 AM, said:

A good one on currencies. He maintains his view of A$1 = US$2!


Show me the money

agree it is a good one.
Still I don't know how he can be so convinced about the AU$, he can't say for sure commodity will be doing well in future like in recent years

[cobran20]

boz, on 30 October 2010 - 09:29 AM, said:

agree it is a good one.
Still I don't know how he can be so convinced about the AU$, he can't say for sure commodity will be doing well in future like in recent years

We can only assume it is based on his cycle work and where the capital is concentrating. Until China rolls over, we can expect for our minerals to be in demand?

[boz]

cobran20, on 30 October 2010 - 10:05 AM, said:

We can only assume it is based on his cycle work and where the capital is concentrating. Until China rolls over, we can expect for our minerals to be in demand?

I think it is just enough China to Sneeze to get australia and the A$ in trouble