[sydney3000]

http://www.abs.gov.a...@.nsf/mf/3401.0

I am addicted to this statistic. I believe residential flight will be the undoing of the property prices due to unwinding vacancy, investor interest and capital returns. Net departures can't all have lived in hotels and shared accomodation.

[BakerSam]

hmm well if you like to hunt stats, can you do us a favour and prov a theory for me? Check net immigration to Tassy or some small state, I think they actaully had negative growth a few years ago. How did house prices perform? Are the still rising as much as the rest of the states even though their pop is growing at a much slower rate? How can this be unless it isn't population we should be worried about but access to credit, which we all have no matter where we live in Australia.

I would look this up if I ever really got baited by shadow or Frank or The Claw but i know i'm right anyway. It seems like a theory *if true* that is very hard to have an answer to. The problem with the population increasing theory is as you mentioned, how can anyone prove that the new people arn't just living in hotels? They can't conclusivly prove that.

Their theory goes:
If there is a supply shortage house prices will rise.
Therefor house prices have risen there is a supply shortage.

This is a pretty basic false positive.

Things that make people live are good for them.
Food makes people live.
Big Mac's are food.
Therefor Big Mac's are good for people.

With this kind of reasoning I can goto a health food forum and spout shit about the nutrition that Big Mac's provide and you can't prove me wrong (to my own false positive) similar to how some claim that popoulation growth means higher house prices.

[hamish]

Well if population growth was so strongly linked to booming house prices, surely SE QLD should have more expensive housing than NSW by now, given that they've had net population growth going on for twice that of NSW for decades. And when Sydney's prices absolutely boomed 00-03, net migration to NSW plummeted to near zero in 03 & 04, even with construction powering ahead as per normal, and when prices flattened off over tyhe next few years, net migration increased back up to the former level, even whilst building starts slowly declined.

Those and other stats tend to make me think that the link between pop growth and housing costs aren't nearly as strong as many would have you believe.

I don't think you can conclude all that much from the short term departures and arrivals, I mean the recent spike in departures could just be a result of the strong dollar encouraging more OS tourism.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

These stats on permanent departures and arrivals may be more telling?

http://www.immi.gov....movs/totmov.htm

[BakerSam]

hamish, on 12 December 2009 - 02:22 PM, said:

I don't think you can conclude all that much from the short term departures and arrivals, I mean the recent spike in departures could just be a result of the strong dollar encouraging more OS tourism.

I also hear on the grape vine that Box Hill Tafe is halving their patisserie staff because of the lack in new applications. Recent spike in departures could just be the last in, first out, with alot of Indian/Chinese students not bothering with their courses. It is niegh on impossible for students to even get their applications looked at for another 2-3 years and that is only IF they can apply today! Limbo much? My sister in law still has another year of her course before she can apply so spend another $20,000 living and studying in Australia or buy a business back in Malaysia? I mean don't get me wrong our pastry course here in Australia is TOP KNOTCH, we easily beat France and the rest of those idiots over in europe...

It costs less than $500 for me (before allowances) to do the course so it MUST we worth $10,000 for my sister...? Seriously I am suprised that it has taken the third world so long to wake up to this scam but farewell to them all!

/soapbox

[tor]

BakerSam, on 14 December 2009 - 06:01 AM, said:

I also hear on the grape vine that Box Hill Tafe is halving their patisserie staff because of the lack in new applications. Recent spike in departures could just be the last in, first out, with alot of Indian/Chinese students not bothering with their courses. It is niegh on impossible for students to even get their applications looked at for another 2-3 years and that is only IF they can apply today! Limbo much? My sister in law still has another year of her course before she can apply so spend another $20,000 living and studying in Australia or buy a business back in Malaysia? I mean don't get me wrong our pastry course here in Australia is TOP KNOTCH, we easily beat France and the rest of those idiots over in europe...

It costs less than $500 for me (before allowances) to do the course so it MUST we worth $10,000 for my sister...? Seriously I am suprised that it has taken the third world so long to wake up to this scam but farewell to them all!

/soapbox

People from warmer climes have hot hands so it takes longer to teach them

Seriously are our patisserie skills that good here? I thought the vietnamese were supposed to be among the best (to use wildly sweeping generalistic claims, the vietnamese sausage rolls in my experience are pretty good though and the pies at 2 of the ones I frequent are excellent, although I am a kiwi and love a pie more so than the average australian I guess).

Ahhh those nights in NZ when I would finish closing the bar and go to the local petrol station for a nice curry pie and a bit of a play on their plushy toy robot machine... then go home reeking of spilled booze and cumin to the girlfriend with a handful of plushy teddy bears.

[BakerSam]

tor, on 14 December 2009 - 06:38 AM, said:

People from warmer climes have hot hands so it takes longer to teach them

Seriously are our patisserie skills that good here? I thought the vietnamese were supposed to be among the best (to use wildly sweeping generalistic claims, the vietnamese sausage rolls in my experience are pretty good though and the pies at 2 of the ones I frequent are excellent, although I am a kiwi and love a pie more so than the average australian I guess).

Ahhh those nights in NZ when I would finish closing the bar and go to the local petrol station for a nice curry pie and a bit of a play on their plushy toy robot machine... then go home reeking of spilled booze and cumin to the girlfriend with a handful of plushy teddy bears.

Well if you watch the anime "Yakitate Japan" you will learn that hot hands, refered to as "solar hands", actually activates the yeast in the pastry/bread making superiour bread...go figure! No, I would say the lack of english skills means it takes longer to teach them.

Vietnamese bakers are extreemly good, except for the last two that I hired, but they were kind of Australian, so that would make sense and possibly down syndromed. A Vietnamese baker actually taught me as an apprentice alot of what I know and one of my best baking buddies out of work is Viet too, so I actually hold them in very high regards.

Going on the Yakitate Japan thing, if they showed that instead of pokemon/Dragon Ball Z or whatever I think we would find that alot more kids would want to grow up to be awesome bakers. It is a very good series, alteast the first season, get a little bit too Japanese after that.

[tux]

These figures show that Queensland's interstate migration at a net (per annum) gain of between 9,959 and 47,062 from 1981 to 2008, and the most recent year in the series (2008) saw a net gain of 23,088 persons.

These figures show that Queensland's international migration was a net loss of 22,682 people for 2008 - 2009.

Therefore it is realistic to assume that Queensland's population growth via migration for 2008 - 2009 was very very small.

I've had people tell me that the prices of property in Queensland was driven by migration from the southern states, as we see from the stats, the interstate migration is very small over the years and is probable that it mostly appears to be canceled out by net migration loss to overseas.

If the prices are population driven, it must be due to some large increase in internal population through breeding.

Now, I've either interpreted the figures incorrectly, otherwise either the statistics are Bull***t or the spruikers are Bull***ters.

One or the other or both?

[tux]

Here are the per annum births in Queensland and here are the per annum deaths for Queensland. Doesn't show huge population gains enough to justify the notion that house price rises are attributed to population demands.

[sydney3000]

http://www.abs.gov.a...@.nsf/mf/3401.0

More people left.

[Charles Bukowski]

sydney3000, on 12 January 2010 - 07:11 AM, said:

http://www.abs.gov.a...@.nsf/mf/3401.0

More people left.

It's all us bears

[hamish]

That'd be the strong aussie dollar at work there... not good for business reliant on tourism (in Australia)

[sydney3000]

The people have spoken: "We are leaving. Living costs don't make it worthwhile."

http://www.abs.gov.a...@.nsf/mf/3401.0

[sydney3000]

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Number of downloads: 27

[sydney3000]

The great thing about a boom is that once it is over you can leave in search of the next big thing. Plenty of Australian residents are packing their bags and fleeing before the levies break.

December 2010 had the lowest net migration of permanent residents since December 1976.

This post has been edited by sydney3000: 08 February 2011 - 05:50 AM

[sydney3000]

sydney3000, on 08 February 2011 - 05:48 AM, said:

December 2010 had the lowest net migration of permanent residents since December 1976.

December 2010 had the lowest net migration of permanent residents of all Decembers since December 1976.

[sydney3000]

Emigration - The Story About Small Australia!

 ABS_Net_Permanent_Settlers_201101.png (35.09K)
Number of downloads: 39

[sydney3000]

Human capital seems to be more mobile than financial capital.

[sydney3000]

When all else fails, emigrate!

[sydney3000]

The net permanent resident interest seems to be on the rise again. Can the new arrivals make it in this tough environment? The thought of moving to Europe after a possible Euro collapse and possible retrechment enters my mind more and more frequently. Does surviving in Sydney make one capable of surviving anywhere?

This post has been edited by sydney3000: 05 December 2011 - 06:06 AM