[cobran20]

The first link in this posting on the Armstrong thread belongs here as well.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

cobran20, on 28 December 2011 - 11:38 AM, said:

Bernard L. Madoff, on 28 December 2011 - 02:53 AM, said:

Cobran, I shorted Gold at 1630 and 1608 (two 23.6 Fib levels, one long term and the other short, also failure at 200SMA) , currently at 1586 with stops moved to 1608 to lock in profit.

Any opinions on a target? I have 1560 as a near term target (recent low) and 1532 (Sep low). Monthly nearing oversold, weekly and daily oversold.

The 09/2011 is the first main target. A clear break below that would help confirm that gold (in $US) will fall in the $1400's. The $US index should rise on 2012, probably courtesy of Europe.

Thanks. Forget 1560, she's gone, lets eye 1532. If that goes its clear air below. I'll just keep moving my stops down.

Just wait until an Eurobank fails.

15th September 2008, Lehmann Bros fails - Gold Closes @ $785
10th October 2008, +$146 or 18.5% in 25 days - Gold Peaks @ $931
24th October 2008, -$250 or -27% in 14 days - Gold Closes @ $681 (as Institutional Funds liquidate everything to meet investor redemptions as panic sets in).

...she then went to the moon

[tor]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 29 December 2011 - 03:34 AM, said:

...she then went to the moon

That's what I am guessing will happen, with the recent price drops I figure time to start buying again and I will probably be in the city over the next few weeks so I will probably pick some more up.

I am working on the assumption that the people with lots of gold and lots of problems (whether their own or just tarred with the same brush problems) are going to run out of gold to flood the market with eventually.

Or the aussie dollar will drop back down again. Although of course if that only happens against the US dollar then I guess I will probably stay even or get a small rise. I suspect that if the whole financial thing goes bad enough to actually impact resource stuff that the aussie will drop further than gold though so it ought to be okay.

If neither of those things happen then I ought to be in good shape with the business so it all evens out.

(note that at the moment gold has to hit about 15.6K/oz for me to sell (I intend to close my mortgage by paying in gold) so taking investment advice from me is laughably daft)

[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 28 December 2011 - 11:38 AM, said:

The 09/2011 is the first main target. A clear break below that would help confirm that gold (in $US) will fall in the $1400's. The $US index should rise on 2012, probably courtesy of Europe.

I suspect you're seeing gold as cheap as it gets already. Same old, old mistake, treating gold as if it's purely commodity.

[cobran20]

wulfgar, on 29 December 2011 - 08:12 AM, said:

I suspect you're seeing gold as cheap as it gets already. Same old, old mistake, treating gold as if it's purely commodity.

I suspect that you're seeing gold as something special that only ever goes up. That's exactly how the silver bugs were behaving until recently!

[Mr Medved]

cobran20, on 29 December 2011 - 10:20 AM, said:

I suspect that you're seeing gold as something special that only ever goes up. That's exactly how the silver bugs were behaving until recently!

The joker in the deck for non-traders in Oz is the AUD. Having said that I can see gold pulling back more, but to my non-technical eye there is a longish-term trend line which is far from broken (yet). If it does break then it could be quite a spectacular correction.

It wouldn't surprise me if AUD gold trades mostly sideways for the next six months or so. IMO it is not a terrible price to buy at if you buy incrementally. I don't like sticky fingers so I don't try and pick bottoms.

[cobran20]

Mr Medved, on 29 December 2011 - 10:51 AM, said:

The joker in the deck for non-traders in Oz is the AUD. Having said that I can see gold pulling back more, but to my non-technical eye there is a longish-term trend line which is far from broken (yet). If it does break then it could be quite a spectacular correction.

It wouldn't surprise me if AUD gold trades mostly sideways for the next six months or so. IMO it is not a terrible price to buy at if you buy incrementally. I don't like sticky fingers so I don't try and pick bottoms.

It will be interesting indeed. As I type this posting, the $US gold futures are down 1.78% ($1528.39), but the $A has dropped < 0.5%.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Ignoring Wulgar's waffle

I'm up $15K on a nervy short but my stop has me at $10K. I haven't shorted gold since the 800s.

Here are some calcs:

Using Fib Nos from the $681 Oct 08 to $1920 Sep 2011.

23.6 Fib $1637 (gone)
6/2011 Support $1478
5/2011 Support $1462
50 Fib $1305 (Jan 2011 Low support)
61.8 Fib $1157

[cobran20]

Bernard L. Madoff, on 29 December 2011 - 01:26 PM, said:

Ignoring Wulgar's waffle

I'm up $15K on a nervy short but my stop has me at $10K. I haven't shorted gold since the 800s.

Here are some calcs:

Using Fib Nos from the $681 Oct 08 to $1920 Sep 2011.

23.6 Fib $1637 (gone)
6/2011 Support $1478
5/2011 Support $1462
50 Fib $1305 (Jan 2011 Low support)
61.8 Fib $1157

gold has plenty of room for falling and still be in a long term bull market.

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[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 29 December 2011 - 10:20 AM, said:

I suspect that you're seeing gold as something special that only ever goes up. That's exactly how the silver bugs were behaving until recently!

If gold was just a commodity, you might be right. But right now a lot of big money is scared about fiat's liquidity and buying gold as insurance when the price is right. You get it?, they aren't speculating, they are buying insurance.

You seem to forget gold has already corrected in USD quite substantially.

[Bernard L. Madoff]

Stopped out this AM at $1541. Looking $1570ish for another leg down. Its like 2008 all over again. I'm going bull when the Fed and ECB hit <print>.

http://kingworldnews...s_for_Gold.html

Quote

The action is what you would expect in a thin market like this, the moves are exaggerated. The people that have shorts on, which has been the right trade for the last several months, they are just pushing it to the limit (on the downside) to make their year. Obviously it’s uncomfortable to see this kind of action, but, to some extent, you have to look at the context in which you see it.”

Quote

So I look for next year to be turbulent financial markets that will be contentious on the political front. Probably anemic economic activity and it looks to me like Europe and Japan are heading into recession. You wonder what kind of feedback that will have for the US. All of this will end up with mobs of people screaming for money printing and I think that’s going to be the flash point for gold.

Obviously the gold price has to make a stand at some point, but I do think we are seeing panic liquidation. I think we’re at the point where you’re going to see central banks start dumping dollars for gold. The dollar really isn’t strong, it’s just relatively strong to the euro, but ultimately the dollar is caught up in the same mess.

I think the ones that will start driving the price of gold substantially higher will be central banks who start worrying about all of their dollar reserve assets that are being overtly debased.”

[wulfgar]

Quote

All of this will end up with mobs of people screaming for money printing and I think that’s going to be the flash point for gold.

They can scream all they like, but they won't get it. The annual increase of cash in circulation has averaged 6 to 7% for floating currencies since Basel one.

The QE governments supply is mainly taking taxpayers money and buying crap off rich entities at mark to fantasy. Rather the same way Peter Cook jabs 'Sloth' for some writing blood in the film 'Bedazzled'. They simply rob Peter to pay Paul, this is deflationary for Peter and inflationary for Paul but overall it equals. In America Peter lost his house so Paul could get his 500k bonus.

This post has been edited by wulfgar: 30 December 2011 - 03:43 AM

[cobran20]

Mr Medved, on 29 December 2011 - 10:51 AM, said:

The joker in the deck for non-traders in Oz is the AUD. Having said that I can see gold pulling back more, but to my non-technical eye there is a longish-term trend line which is far from broken (yet). If it does break then it could be quite a spectacular correction.

It wouldn't surprise me if AUD gold trades mostly sideways for the next six months or so. IMO it is not a terrible price to buy at if you buy incrementally. I don't like sticky fingers so I don't try and pick bottoms.

If it is going to hold the fort, around now would be a good time to bounce.

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[tor]

cobran20, on 30 December 2011 - 04:02 AM, said:

If it is going to hold the fort, around now would be a good time to bounce.

but I won't be able to buy any til next week! no bounce, no bounce, no bounce.

[wulfgar]

cobran20, on 30 December 2011 - 04:02 AM, said:

If it is going to hold the fort, around now would be a good time to bounce.

Trend-line has worked out at 16% pa for the last 4 years.......not bad for something that doesn't pay interest! And only half that gain is subject to taxation.

Quote

but I won't be able to buy any til next week! no bounce, no bounce, no bounce.

You'll probably get your wish............lesson for the gold freak.......don't freak! In fact never freak with anything. Remember Buda, life is a vale of tears to be avoided.

The falling Aus interest rate will burn the AUD in relation to gold. The entire reason the AUD has remained so strong has been the interest rate.

[tor]

wulfgar, on 30 December 2011 - 05:55 AM, said:

The falling Aus interest rate will burn the AUD in relation to gold. The entire reason the AUD has remained so strong has been the interest rate.

Well there is something I hadn't really factored in.

Although claiming I factored anything in is rather a large claim I guess.

[wulfgar]

tor, on 30 December 2011 - 07:07 AM, said:

Well there is something I hadn't really factored in.

Although claiming I factored anything in is rather a large claim I guess.

Maybe you can do what I'm doing. I no longer keep slabs in the house. When I'm thirsty I allow myself one 750 ml bottle from the shop. I might allow myself a triple bottle pack tomorrow though.

[Mr Medved]

http://www.zerohedge...er-til-its-over

[Mr Medved]

http://www.jsmineset...es-predictable/

[Mr Medved]

http://goldmodel.blogspot.com/