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Cobran, is gold forming a right shoulder?
Techs overbought and she hasn't busted the May High let alone the June Solstice one.
Gold
#581
Bernard L. Madoff 
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Posted 26 August 2010 - 02:49 AM
#582
savagegoose
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Posted 26 August 2010 - 03:16 AM
im told the options expire for silver this month and gold next month. errm also dec is a gold and silver both expire same time.
so if that is right, no need to worry till sept expiry date for gold
so if that is right, no need to worry till sept expiry date for gold
#583
cobran20
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Posted 26 August 2010 - 03:35 AM
Bernard L. Madoff, on 26 August 2010 - 02:49 AM, said:
Cobran, is gold forming a right shoulder?
Techs overbought and she hasn't busted the May High let alone the June Solstice one.
Techs overbought and she hasn't busted the May High let alone the June Solstice one.
or a double top? If it rises to a new high by a margin of, let's say 3%, then my expectations were blatantly wrong!
#584
Bernard L. Madoff
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Posted 26 August 2010 - 04:28 AM
savagegoose, on 26 August 2010 - 03:16 AM, said:
im told the options expire for silver this month and gold next month. errm also dec is a gold and silver both expire same time.
so if that is right, no need to worry till sept expiry date for gold
so if that is right, no need to worry till sept expiry date for gold
Gold Options on the September contract expire TONIGHT.
http://www.cmegroup....ar_options.html
#585
savagegoose
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Posted 26 August 2010 - 02:51 PM
yeah im at a loss sorting this thing out. price down in last half hour tonight US time im guessing so this evening is the dump renew or pay cash for bars. looks like my confusion has cost me.
tks tinny, now im better for armed, and this is a good test run for the next month.
tks tinny, now im better for armed, and this is a good test run for the next month.
This post has been edited by savagegoose: 26 August 2010 - 02:53 PM
#586
Mr Medved
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Posted 27 August 2010 - 06:49 AM
A section of the latest offering from FOFOA. The bolded text in part sums up why I believe there is a floor under the POG and that buying the dips represents good value.
http://fofoa.blogspo...-inflation.html
I think it is fair to say that we have finished our 30-year run of high credibility inflation and we are now in the early stages of credibility deflation. The real question now is, can the credibility of the financial system deflate without tripping a breaker, without causing a credibility waterfall in the currency in which it is denominated?
The difference between today and a few years ago is that a few years ago credibility inflation was being fed by private credit (debt) expansion. Asset values, like homes, were being sustained and driven higher with the arrival of new marks. But today the Ponzi cycle of credibility inflation has peaked, there are no more new marks, and its decline is being managed centrally with the government expansion of new base money to conceal the failures one at a time.
And as in any Ponzi scheme there comes a point when redemptions can no longer be financed by new marks. I think the tipping point of credibility must come once it is clear that Bernie Madoff, I mean Uncle Sam is writing redemption checks that can never be cashed. The point is, we are already past the tipping point. So timing isn't really a question anymore. The credibility waterfall has already happened. But somehow we still have early marks continuing to stockpile rubber checks as if they are worth something. Does this mean credibility still exists? I think not.
I suppose this begs the question, is all that dollar debt out there in the world really worth anything anymore? If you answer yes simply because you cashed some of it in today for new underwear, then I say you didn't answer the question. The question is, is all that dollar debt out there in the world really worth anything anymore? The answer is no, it is not. Only at the margin, where you reside, can it still be cashed in for new underwear. But in aggregate, it is worthless, even today.
And then the next logical question should be, what is gold really worth today? If you answered $1,240 per ounce simply because you bought a gold Eagle today for $1,240, then I say you didn't answer the question. The question is, what is gold REALLY worth today? And the answer is it is priceless, but probably could be had in extremely large volumes for somewhere between $10,000 and $50,000 per ounce. (How much physical gold could China realistically get today if it tried to cash in $2T in debt paper for gold? At today's price it could get more than 50,000 tonnes, but only if that's the real value of gold.)
Only at the margin, where you reside, can physical gold still be had for $1,240 per ounce. But in aggregate, in the vaults of the world's central banks as the only reserve asset not tied to the medium of exchange, it is priceless, in the truest sense of the word.
My advice: Get as much of this priceless reserve asset as you can while it's still going for $1,240 at the margin. Seems like a bargain to me.
http://fofoa.blogspo...-inflation.html
I think it is fair to say that we have finished our 30-year run of high credibility inflation and we are now in the early stages of credibility deflation. The real question now is, can the credibility of the financial system deflate without tripping a breaker, without causing a credibility waterfall in the currency in which it is denominated?
The difference between today and a few years ago is that a few years ago credibility inflation was being fed by private credit (debt) expansion. Asset values, like homes, were being sustained and driven higher with the arrival of new marks. But today the Ponzi cycle of credibility inflation has peaked, there are no more new marks, and its decline is being managed centrally with the government expansion of new base money to conceal the failures one at a time.
And as in any Ponzi scheme there comes a point when redemptions can no longer be financed by new marks. I think the tipping point of credibility must come once it is clear that Bernie Madoff, I mean Uncle Sam is writing redemption checks that can never be cashed. The point is, we are already past the tipping point. So timing isn't really a question anymore. The credibility waterfall has already happened. But somehow we still have early marks continuing to stockpile rubber checks as if they are worth something. Does this mean credibility still exists? I think not.
I suppose this begs the question, is all that dollar debt out there in the world really worth anything anymore? If you answer yes simply because you cashed some of it in today for new underwear, then I say you didn't answer the question. The question is, is all that dollar debt out there in the world really worth anything anymore? The answer is no, it is not. Only at the margin, where you reside, can it still be cashed in for new underwear. But in aggregate, it is worthless, even today.
And then the next logical question should be, what is gold really worth today? If you answered $1,240 per ounce simply because you bought a gold Eagle today for $1,240, then I say you didn't answer the question. The question is, what is gold REALLY worth today? And the answer is it is priceless, but probably could be had in extremely large volumes for somewhere between $10,000 and $50,000 per ounce. (How much physical gold could China realistically get today if it tried to cash in $2T in debt paper for gold? At today's price it could get more than 50,000 tonnes, but only if that's the real value of gold.)
Only at the margin, where you reside, can physical gold still be had for $1,240 per ounce. But in aggregate, in the vaults of the world's central banks as the only reserve asset not tied to the medium of exchange, it is priceless, in the truest sense of the word.
My advice: Get as much of this priceless reserve asset as you can while it's still going for $1,240 at the margin. Seems like a bargain to me.
#587
Plonk
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Posted 29 August 2010 - 07:55 AM
Mr Medved, on 23 August 2010 - 08:38 AM, said:
Lihir Gold shareholders support Newcrest Mining takeover
August 23, 2010 3:21PM
http://www.theaustra...o-1225908965731
LIHIR investors today backed a takeover by Newcrest, leaving the two one step from becoming the world's fifth-largest gold miner.
Shares in both firms were placed in trading halts today, as the companies awaited the results of the vote on the merger at a meeting held in Port Moresby.
Newcrest last traded at $35.78, while Lihir finished Friday's session at $4.43.
Lihir general manager of corporate affairs Joe Dowling told AAP that the preliminary voting results showed 99 per cent of the target's investors were in favour of the $10 billion transaction.
Mr Dowling said about 1.7bn proxy votes backed the merger, while only 2.6 million proxy votes were against the deal. The vast majority of votes were proxies, he said.
The final hurdle is court approval in Papua New Guinea, which is due this Friday.
The scheme of arrangement is slated to become effective on August 30.
Lihir says the combined company will have annual gold production of about 2.8m ounces (Moz), based on Newcrest and Lihir's 2008-09 production results, which would rank it the world's fifth-largest producer of the precious metal.
A pipeline of committed projects will see production rise by 6 per cent per year to 3.75Moz by the end of 2013-14.
The merged entity will also rank fifth globally in terms of gold resources, at 131.8Moz and 212.1Moz of gold equivalent resources.
Lihir and Newcrest will be the fourth-largest holder in the world of gold equivalent reserves at 73.4Moz of gold reserves and 4.7Moz of copper reserves.
Operations will span five countries, with 10 mines across South-east Asia and West Africa.
The flagship projects are Newcrest's Telfer mine in Western Australia and Lihir's operations on Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea.
Lihir chairman Ross Garnaut told the meeting that the target had always recognised the logic of a tie-up with Newcrest.
“The merger will create a $25 billion company, with a portfolio of high quality, long-life, tier one gold assets,” he said.
The companies' PNG and Queensland assets sat well together, Mr Garnaut said.
“Through joining with Newcrest, we can immediately deliver strong returns to our shareholders with certainty, while simultaneously achieving greater diversification, reducing costs and improving our risk profile,” Professor Garnaut said.
Newcrest has offered one of its shares for every 8.43 Lihir shares held, plus 22.5 cents cash per share, which Prof Garnaut said was “a good deal”.
Newcrest had to increase the offer twice before Lihir agreed to the transaction, but Lihir still opened up its data room to other parties and allowed them to tour its operations to allow for a better bid, Professor Garnaut said.
“We ... only agreed to the transaction on the basis that we could complete a process of testing the market by making information available to others who would be free to make an alternative bid up to the time of shareholders’ acceptance of the Newcrest offer,” he said.
“This process ensured that our shareholders received the highest possible price.
“I can confirm that we had serious interest from alternative buyers who visited the operations and were provided extensive information on the company.
“In the final event, none made a formal alternative offer.”
The world's largest gold miner, Canada's Barrick Gold Corp, and US gold mining giant Newmont Mining Corp were rumoured to be running the ruler over Lihir.
But at a conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia earlier this month, Barrick effectively ruled out launching a competing bid.
Newmont declined to comment on the matter at the same forum.
August 23, 2010 3:21PM
http://www.theaustra...o-1225908965731
LIHIR investors today backed a takeover by Newcrest, leaving the two one step from becoming the world's fifth-largest gold miner.
Shares in both firms were placed in trading halts today, as the companies awaited the results of the vote on the merger at a meeting held in Port Moresby.
Newcrest last traded at $35.78, while Lihir finished Friday's session at $4.43.
Lihir general manager of corporate affairs Joe Dowling told AAP that the preliminary voting results showed 99 per cent of the target's investors were in favour of the $10 billion transaction.
Mr Dowling said about 1.7bn proxy votes backed the merger, while only 2.6 million proxy votes were against the deal. The vast majority of votes were proxies, he said.
The final hurdle is court approval in Papua New Guinea, which is due this Friday.
The scheme of arrangement is slated to become effective on August 30.
Lihir says the combined company will have annual gold production of about 2.8m ounces (Moz), based on Newcrest and Lihir's 2008-09 production results, which would rank it the world's fifth-largest producer of the precious metal.
A pipeline of committed projects will see production rise by 6 per cent per year to 3.75Moz by the end of 2013-14.
The merged entity will also rank fifth globally in terms of gold resources, at 131.8Moz and 212.1Moz of gold equivalent resources.
Lihir and Newcrest will be the fourth-largest holder in the world of gold equivalent reserves at 73.4Moz of gold reserves and 4.7Moz of copper reserves.
Operations will span five countries, with 10 mines across South-east Asia and West Africa.
The flagship projects are Newcrest's Telfer mine in Western Australia and Lihir's operations on Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea.
Lihir chairman Ross Garnaut told the meeting that the target had always recognised the logic of a tie-up with Newcrest.
“The merger will create a $25 billion company, with a portfolio of high quality, long-life, tier one gold assets,” he said.
The companies' PNG and Queensland assets sat well together, Mr Garnaut said.
“Through joining with Newcrest, we can immediately deliver strong returns to our shareholders with certainty, while simultaneously achieving greater diversification, reducing costs and improving our risk profile,” Professor Garnaut said.
Newcrest has offered one of its shares for every 8.43 Lihir shares held, plus 22.5 cents cash per share, which Prof Garnaut said was “a good deal”.
Newcrest had to increase the offer twice before Lihir agreed to the transaction, but Lihir still opened up its data room to other parties and allowed them to tour its operations to allow for a better bid, Professor Garnaut said.
“We ... only agreed to the transaction on the basis that we could complete a process of testing the market by making information available to others who would be free to make an alternative bid up to the time of shareholders’ acceptance of the Newcrest offer,” he said.
“This process ensured that our shareholders received the highest possible price.
“I can confirm that we had serious interest from alternative buyers who visited the operations and were provided extensive information on the company.
“In the final event, none made a formal alternative offer.”
The world's largest gold miner, Canada's Barrick Gold Corp, and US gold mining giant Newmont Mining Corp were rumoured to be running the ruler over Lihir.
But at a conference in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia earlier this month, Barrick effectively ruled out launching a competing bid.
Newmont declined to comment on the matter at the same forum.
Thanks Mod for moving my post on NCM and LGL. Gold producers have a bit to do with gold, I reckon, but I get your point- physical gold posts in gold thread, but gold shares in share thread.
[MOD: please post graphs and show the relationship with share price and takeover games and AU spot
http://www.getmoneye...al-gold-stocks/ ]
#588
savagegoose
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Posted 31 August 2010 - 04:25 PM
gold up in most currencies, and over $1400 in AUD. what a night. looks like ill be up early to catch what happens here tomorrow.
#589
Mr Medved
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Posted 03 September 2010 - 09:30 AM
Alas, no gold posts for me for six weeks, off to Asia where they value shiny metals... may pick up some silver trinkets for Mrs Medved. 
I still think sub-1400 AUD is a good buy, we'll see how it's looking in late October.
I still think sub-1400 AUD is a good buy, we'll see how it's looking in late October.
#590
Bernard L. Madoff
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Posted 03 September 2010 - 09:51 AM
Mr Medved, on 03 September 2010 - 09:30 AM, said:
Alas, no gold posts for me for six weeks, off to Asia where they value shiny metals... may pick up some silver trinkets for Mrs Medved.
I still think sub-1400 AUD is a good buy, we'll see how it's looking in late October.
I still think sub-1400 AUD is a good buy, we'll see how it's looking in late October.
Have a good one. Watch the chillies.
I think for Gold to get high ($2000+ USD) we need a wee pull back. Not overbought weekly but definitely on the daily and monthly.
Back to 1190 and then 2000+ would be cool.
#591
Bernard L. Madoff
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Posted 03 September 2010 - 12:59 PM
Kaboom.
1251 to 1239 in seconds.
1251 to 1239 in seconds.
#592
firehawk
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Posted 03 September 2010 - 10:34 PM
Bernard L. Madoff, on 03 September 2010 - 12:59 PM, said:
Kaboom.
1251 to 1239 in seconds.
1251 to 1239 in seconds.
And back to 1246 in minutes.
The HUI daily and weekly candlesticks look promising. Could be a grand week (or two) for gold coming up.
#593
Plonk
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Posted 03 September 2010 - 11:32 PM
Plonk, on 29 August 2010 - 07:55 AM, said:
[MOD: please post graphs and show the relationship with share price and takeover games and AU spot
http://www.getmoneye...al-gold-stocks/ ]
Easy, Tiger. As you can see by scrolling, I was responding to the article that another member posted on the NCM/LGL merger. Fair go on the modding, eh?
#594
Easy Tiger
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Posted 03 September 2010 - 11:58 PM
Plonk, on 03 September 2010 - 11:32 PM, said:
Easy, Tiger. As you can see by scrolling, I was responding to the article that another member posted on the NCM/LGL merger. Fair go on the modding, eh?
I'm not a mod
#595
savagegoose
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Posted 04 September 2010 - 01:24 AM
hmmm gold and a strong AUD. although in USD terms gold is close to alltime highs, here in oz dollars its still got a bit to go. I m stunned at the volatility seen in the last week. judging by share markets all isa right with he world.<br>
#598
cobran20
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Posted 04 September 2010 - 05:47 AM
cobran20, on 26 August 2010 - 03:35 AM, said:
or a double top? If it rises to a new high by a margin of, let's say 3%, then my expectations were blatantly wrong!
Silver (in ($US) is leading the charge at attempting new highs. IMO, gold (in $US) is looking overbought and even if it breaks to a new high, I suspect if it will make it much past the low $US 1300's before a correction is due. Our $A keeps strengthening and is impacting on gold in $A.
Attached File(s)
#599
Bernard L. Madoff
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Posted 04 September 2010 - 07:16 AM
cobran20, on 04 September 2010 - 05:47 AM, said:
IMO, gold (in $US) is looking overbought and even if it breaks to a new high, I suspect if it will make it much past the low $US 1300's before a correction is due.
+1
