[sydney3000]

http://www.rba.gov.a...-agg/index.html

Somebody needs to tell the business sector the GFC is over. The downturn in business investment is now a 23-month streak.

2007/2008
Dec 23.8
Jan 23.6
Feb 21.9
Mar 21.5
Apr 19.6
May 18.2
Jun 17.1

2008/2009
Jul 16.1
Aug 14.6
Sep 14.0
Oct 13.6
Nov 11.4
Dec 8.1
Jan 7.6
Feb 6.3
Mar 4.4
Apr 3.5
May 2.0
Jun 0.4

2009/2010
Jul -0.8
Aug -2.2
Sep -4.7
Oct -6.8
Nov -8.2

[Solomon]

That would be worth graphing Sydney3x.
-8.2 from the high of 23.8 in Dec 07 is a significant shift in business credit. 30% change in 2 years.
Thanks for doing the work to put together the figures.
Somebody's got to be hurting somewhere!!

[Sean]

Solomon, on 31 December 2009 - 06:26 AM, said:

Somebody's got to be hurting somewhere!!

Us. Everywhere.

You know, that looks suspiciously like a downturn starting in Q1 2008!

[sydney3000]

The Australian economy will collapse in December 2010 according to the extrapolated credit figures of the RBA. Business credit will consist of less than 33.3333% of all outstanding credit as shown in the attached file. The credit system will seize to function with more than 66.6666% of credit used for unproductive purposes.

Attached File(s)

•  debt_collapse.png (6.62K)
  Number of downloads: 26

[sydney3000]

http://www.rba.gov.a...n-agg-1209.html

Businesses prudent. Consumers imprudent. The saga continues.

[jas25t]

Thanks for the commentry Syd3k

[boz]

IN seasonal adjusted term the M3 still looks very sick with drop of 0.5% monthly, pretty much at lowest growth point since last recession. also business credit is at same level as 2 years ago at around 700 bil$

[Mr Medved]

Off the top of my head the high water mark for nominal house prices in Australia was in December 2007. This appears to also be the peak of business investment. I would be interested to see a comparison of business investment change (+/-) against employment (+/-). It may provide an indication of how many jobs were 'created' or 'saved' for 300 billion dollars.

It appears we are at most (two or) three years into a major cyclical downturn. Stagflation pretty much lasted roughly a decade; the Great Depression and Long Depression lasted over a decade. Modern history suggests that it will be 10 to 20 years before we reach rock bottom. Buckle up!

[sydney3000]

http://www.rba.gov.a...n-agg-0110.html

Business credit shrank again. Do Australians suffer from multiple personalities? At home they spend. At work they save.

 credit_201001.png (14.77K)
Number of downloads: 21


 offshore_201001.png (6.37K)
Number of downloads: 20

[sydney3000]

http://www.rba.gov.a...n-agg-0210.html

 credit_201002.png (14.89K)
Number of downloads: 31


 offshore_201002.png (6.36K)
Number of downloads: 26

[Mr Medved]

sydney3000, on 31 March 2010 - 01:08 AM, said:

http://www.rba.gov.a...n-agg-0210.html

credit_201002.png

My prediction of a 50-70% property price correction in real terms from peak to trough looks downright bullish against your projections!

Interesting to see business lending in terminal decline for over two years. Need to remember that peak employment in the U.S. was in 1925/6 and the stock market peaked in 1929; the depression didn't really hit hard until the debt defaults of 1931 - that's 2-6 years after peak economic activity. I think the state of denial will persist until there is a crisis that cannot be ignored.

[boz]

seems M3 is going back up again a bit and offshore borrowing is stabilising, may be trade position is improving?
anyhow the rba rises didn't have great impact on money

[wulfgar]

boz, on 31 March 2010 - 03:24 AM, said:

seems M3 is going back up again a bit and offshore borrowing is stabilising, may be trade position is improving?
anyhow the rba rises didn't have great impact on money

You mean exporting debt?

[boz]

boz, on 31 March 2010 - 03:24 AM, said:

may be trade position is improving?

today trade numbers for february where not good at -1.92 bil$ rising from -1.12 bil$ in january.

Quote

You mean exporting debt?

may be we just sold another company or 2 to china or so to get more money into the country...

[sydney3000]

http://www.rba.gov.a...n-agg-0310.html

 credit_201003.png (15.06K)
Number of downloads: 13


 offshore_201003.png (6.32K)
Number of downloads: 15

[boz]

seems those interest rate rises haven't had much impact at all,
house prices are rising in line with the housing credit. May be we should start a poll to guess where the australian credit will peak in relation to gdp

[sydney3000]

http://www.rba.gov.a...n-agg-0410.html

 credit_201004.png (14.92K)
Number of downloads: 52


 offshore_201004.png (6.24K)
Number of downloads: 50

This post has been edited by sydney3000: 31 May 2010 - 02:14 AM

[jas25t]

S3K



Could you please explain what those graphs are that you've posted?

[boz]

jas25t, on 31 May 2010 - 04:15 AM, said:

S3K



Could you please explain what those graphs are that you've posted?

I have to say that I like them, good to get them updated monthly with the new RBA data.
Have to say that the 78% drop expected in property prices is a touch pessimistic:

[sydney3000]

jas25t, on 31 May 2010 - 04:15 AM, said:

Could you please explain what those graphs are that you've posted?

It is just some RBA data which I picked out to illustrate a trend and the move away from an original ratio. The projection forward reuses the original ratio and determines how much credit must decrease to get us back to "normal". We are looking at a serious depression...an economic black hole.